The Bulwark Podcast

The war-induced global oil shock is already pushing consumers and businesses to new pain points because of higher fuel prices. Airlines are cutting back routes and ticket prices have started to spike. Expect road trips to be canceled, lifestyles to change, and more people to work from home. Trump is trying to deflect blame onto Iran and NATO, but the world will focus its rage on him and his war of choice.

In addition to the global energy shock brought on by Trump's war, mortgage rates are surging, and labor costs and prices are rising. And Republicans don't seem to have a plan except to spend more, blame trans kids, and feed Trump's megalomania by allowing him to put his ugly signature on our currency.

For nearly 50 years, since the Ayatollah seized power in Iran and took Americans hostage, the U.S. has known that the regime could single-handedly shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Trump was reportedly warned of this threat, but the failed casino owner blew it off. And now Iran unilaterally controls 20% of the world’s oil supply and an even higher percentage of the fertilizer inventory.

Trump's shamelessness has been his political superpower, but the regime in Tehran is seeing a desperate and panicked man doing the opposite of what he's said about Iran for the past decade. But his supporters are not likely to see the dangerous moment we are in unless or until they feel real economic pain personally.

A war of choice may evolve into a war of necessity because the brains at the White House apparently did not anticipate that Iran—in response to the bombing campaign—would shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which the global economy depends on being open. It's also not a good look for the U.S. to be got by a power like Iran because China is watching.

The man in charge is bluffing, blustering, and trying to manipulate the markets by claiming that the administration is in negotiations with Iran and was holding off on further military strikes. Israel's reaction was to drop more bombs on Iran, and the regime itself used Trump's own lines against him in its response. In any event, Iran has shown it can close the Strait of Hormuz, which is much more of a power move than the degradation of Tehran's missile capacity.

The U.S. is at war with the leading state sponsor of terror, and Donald Trump appointed Markwayne Mullin—a man with no counter-terrorism experience—to help defend the homeland. At the same time, Hegseth is a meathead, and the shoe designer at the top of the FBI is preoccupied with visiting all the places on his bucket list. This is the moment for Democrats to argue that Trump has made the country very vulnerable.

For Talarico, it doesn't really matter whether Cornyn or Paxton wins their runoff battle. Either way, the Texas Democratic Senate candidate says he is running against the billionaire mega-donors and their corrupt system.

POTUS is pretending the laws of supply and demand don't apply when it comes to the price of oil. And his long list of conflicting statements on the Strait of Hormuz is not providing any clarity on whether it will reopen to Western vessels anytime soon. But while Rep. Khanna successfully helped create the Epstein coalition, he says most of his Republican colleagues on the Hill are sticking with Trump's war narrative—though with a little less chest thumping.

A former MAGA influencer who saw the underbelly of the immense power and wealth around this administration says never-Trumpers should show compassion for people who are now feeling betrayed by him—and who are starting to have second thoughts about the cult they joined. Ashley, who is the mother of one of Elon's kids, also tells Tim that an increasing number of MAGA women are waking up to the fact that they've been used as pawns in the movement.

As the Iran war enters its third week, the Trump administration looks like it doesn’t know what it’s doing: it did not bother to consult U.S. allies before the military operation began but it now wants their help to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; POTUS keeps talking about his great victory even with Marine Expeditionary Forces en route; and the disruption in the oil markets is likely to last for months.

The Trump administration is preparing to deploy a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East along with more warships. But that development was not Hegseth’s highest priority at his Pentagon briefing. His first order of business was attacking the media—even before mentioning the six fallen service members who were killed in a plane crash supporting the war in Iran.

We’re raining hellfire down on Iran and American soldiers have died, but that doesn’t stop Trump from hitting the links, doing a little dancing, or holding a revenge rally. His main preoccupation is his daily PR battle over the war—which currently involves arguing that higher gas prices are a good thing. And his ever dutiful backup chorus in Congress is happy to explain how “freedom isn’t free.”

One of the biggest America First fans tells Tim that he thought Trump 2.0 would be different because like-minded, high-level personnel—including the vice president and top DOD staff—were supposed to stop Trump from doing stupid wars like the strategic catastrophe unfolding in and around Iran.

Republicans and the Supreme Court have put basically no guardrails on Trump, so he started a global war that is costing taxpayers $1 billion a day. He shrugs about soldiers dying, and he lies about the school full of children that Americans likely killed. And he's downright giddy that because he signed off on all the bombing of Iran, he may get to choose the country's new leader.

Not only is Trump failing to provide any clarity on why the United States went to war against Iran, the administration is also sticking to its habit of declaring an emergency based on some arcane legal provision that supposedly gives the executive branch the power to do whatever it wants. It's almost as though the American legal system can justify authoritarianism if a lawyer can dig deep enough. And Anthropic is currently feeling the sting of this monarchical-style power grab.

Trump cannot enunciate a clear reason for why he's chosen to go to war against Iran, and the administration is not even bothering to coordinate a message that clarifies its objective. While the military campaign appears aimed at regime change, Hegseth denies it is. And instead of speaking directly to Americans, POTUS himself has taken on a Jekyll and Hyde approach to his rationales in a series of private interviews: he's waffled between "freedom," to installing a caretaker regime à la Venezuela, to maybe even revenge.

Trump’s head is stuck in the 80s so he may not have noticed that cable is dying. All he can think about is getting his greedy little hands on CNN so he can make them say nice things about him. But independent outlets—like The Bulwark— are changing the media space and are beyond the reach of a corrupted FCC. Nevertheless, our screens are going to be filled with vast quantities of pro-MAGA propaganda.

No matter how often Trump tries to change the subject, he keeps getting caught in his own attempted diversions. He blames Somali immigrants for importing bribery, corruption, and lawlessness while he sits behind the resolute desk taking a million dollar bribe to bitch about a new bridge. Or he showcases the US men's hockey team while his lying FBI director gets caught red-handed pretending he just happened to be in Italy when the team was playing.

For just under two hours, Trump in his State of the Union address lied about the state of the economy, the cost of living, his tariffs, and even his immigration policy—claiming that he favors legal immigration while his armed, masked goons grab and imprison people who followed the law. And if Americans didn’t hear Trump discuss any real policy proposals in speech, it might be because he’s a bit distracted with his quest to capture more media outlets, including his longtime nemesis, CNN.