How ICE arrests are creating 'economies of fear'

Summary of How ICE arrests are creating 'economies of fear'

by NPR

7m•August 31, 2026
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Overview of How ICE arrests are creating “economies of fear”

This NPR Indicator episode examines how increased ICE enforcement is affecting local economies, using San Antonio’s East Side and new academic research as examples. The central argument is that aggressive immigration enforcement does not just target undocumented immigrants — it creates broad fear that changes how everyone shops, works, and moves through a community, leading to measurable economic declines.

Main Takeaways

  • ICE arrests have risen sharply

    • A UC Berkeley/UCLA Deportation Data Project analysis found ICE arrested nearly 50,000 people in July, the highest monthly total since Trump returned to office.
    • The story frames this as part of a broader, more aggressive enforcement strategy.

  • Enforcement is creating an “economy of fear”

    • Residents in Latino communities, including San Antonio’s East Side, fear being swept up even if they are U.S. citizens.
    • The fear extends beyond immigrants to non-immigrants, non-Hispanics, workers, shoppers, and business owners.

  • Economic research shows real local damage

    • University of Pennsylvania business professor Zeke Hernandez studied the effects of ICE activity using:
      • millions of news articles to identify enforcement locations,
      • consumer card spending data,
      • and cellphone-based foot traffic data.
    • His findings:
      • about a 3% decline in foot traffic
      • about a 7% decline in consumer spending
      • effects that persist over time, rather than fading after a few weeks

  • The impact is not temporary

    • Hernandez expected short-term disruption, but instead found that declines in spending and visits stayed down and in some cases worsened.
    • He warns that fear can reduce:
      • the inflow of workers,
      • new residents,
      • customers,
      • and taxpayers.

San Antonio Case Study

Community impact on the East Side

  • San Antonio’s East Side is described as a mixed, locally driven neighborhood with small businesses, tech startups, bookstores, taquerias, and other mom-and-pop shops.
  • Local economic development leader James Norte says residents are increasingly afraid of ICE presence, even if they are legally in the U.S.
  • He is especially worried about a planned ICE processing and detention facility on the East Side, which he believes could deter businesses and investment.

Broader concern

  • Norte argues that placing such facilities in historically underinvested, racially diverse neighborhoods follows a pattern of burdening communities with less political and economic power.
  • He fears the facility could undo local progress and deepen disinvestment.

Policy Debate

  • Researcher’s view: Hernandez questions whether permanent economic harm is worth any perceived short-term benefits of enforcement.
  • White House response: Spokesperson Lauren Biss said removing “criminals” makes communities safer and argued there is no shortage of American workers to support the labor force.
  • The episode contrasts that claim with evidence of widespread fear and reduced economic activity.

Notable Insight

“It’s an economy driven by fear.”

This line captures the episode’s core thesis: ICE enforcement may be intended as immigration policy, but its effects spill into everyday commerce and community life, depressing local economies far beyond the intended targets.