Overview of The New York Times’s “Trump’s National Support Is Cratering”
This episode examines a major new Times/Siena poll showing that, despite President Trump’s tight grip on the Republican Party, his national support is collapsing. Nate Cohn argues that Trump’s approval rating has fallen to record lows, his 2024 coalition is unraveling, and Democrats are positioned for a strong midterm showing if these numbers hold.
Key Poll Findings
- Trump’s approval rating is 37%, the lowest in Times/Siena polling during his entire political career.
- The broader polling average also shows Trump at his weakest national standing of either presidency.
- The collapse is driven by broad disillusionment across nearly every issue, not just one scandal or event.
- Trump still maintains strong support among most Republicans, which helps explain why he continues to dominate GOP primaries.
Why Trump’s Support Is Falling
The episode emphasizes that Trump has no real “bright spots” in the polling:
- Cost of living: 28% approval
- Iran strike / Middle East policy: 30% approval
- Immigration: 41% approval
- Israeli-Palestinian conflict: 31% approval
Cohn’s central point: Trump’s traditional “floor” of support appears to be breaking down. Historically, people assumed he could never fall much below the high-30s, but this poll suggests he may have already slipped through that floor.
The 2024 Coalition Is Fracturing
A major theme is the reversal among the voters who helped Trump win in 2024:
- Young voters
- Hispanic voters
- Nonwhite voters more broadly
Notable numbers:
- Among 18–29-year-olds, Trump’s approval is just 19%
- Among Hispanic voters, it is 20%
Cohn argues these voters are not simply returning to their old partisan homes; many are moving even further left than they were in 2020.
Why They’re Turning Away
- They were drawn to Trump partly by economic frustration and high prices
- Some supported him because he promised to avoid foreign wars
- His current posture on Iran, immigration, and Israel has alienated them
What This Means for the Midterms
The poll suggests Democrats are in a strong position heading into the fall elections:
- Democrats hold a 10-point lead in the midterm vote preference question
- They are up by nearly 40 points among 18–29-year-olds
- If these numbers held, Democrats would likely:
- Retake the House
- Have a real chance to contest the Senate
Even with Republican efforts at redistricting and gerrymandering, Cohn says the numbers are strong enough that Democrats would still be favored in a very good year.
What Democratic Voters Want
The poll also clarifies internal Democratic preferences:
- Most Democratic-leaning voters do not think the party is too far left or too centrist
- Their biggest complaint is that Democrats are not fighting Trump effectively enough
Policy Preferences
Democratic voters seem to want:
- More economic populism
- Less emphasis on cultural moderation
- A more skeptical or critical stance toward Israel
Examples from the episode:
- Voters prefer cracking down on corporate monopolies over simply expanding housing supply by nearly 3-to-1
- Democratic voters are more sympathetic to the Palestinians than to Israel
- They oppose additional military aid to Israel
Cohn connects this to recent Democratic primary winners who blend anti-corruption politics and economic populism.
What This Means for Republicans
The Republican Party is still much more unified behind Trump than Democrats are behind their own leaders:
- Most Republicans want the next GOP nominee to follow Trump’s lead
- But there is a meaningful minority—especially young and nonwhite Republicans—who want a different direction
Republican Fractures
The main points of tension are:
- Foreign policy
- Cost of living
- Support for Israel
Younger Republicans are especially uneasy with Trump’s more interventionist posture and his handling of the Middle East. Cohn notes that this is a very different form of dissent from the old “Never Trump” movement.
The Bigger Strategic Picture
Cohn’s concluding argument is that:
- The general electorate wants change
- The Republican Party is still giving voters Trumpism
- That mismatch could be costly in 2026 and 2028
He also notes a historical pattern:
- When a president’s approval rating falls below 40%, their party is usually in serious trouble in the next presidential election
- He points to George W. Bush’s decline as the closest recent parallel
Bottom Line
- Trump’s national standing is at a record low.
- His coalition from 2024 is weakening, especially among young and nonwhite voters.
- Democrats are currently favored to do very well in the midterms.
- The Democratic challenge is less about ideology than about building a coalition that can hold together.
- The Republican challenge is that Trump remains dominant inside the party even as his agenda appears increasingly out of step with the broader electorate.