Overview of Trump 2.0: The President’s Affordability Problem
This episode of The Daily (Jan 30) examines how President Donald Trump’s first year back in office has affected voter views on the economy—his signature 2024 issue—and why affordability is eroding his support. Nate Cohn, The New York Times’ chief political analyst, reviews a new national poll and discusses who swung to Trump in 2024, why many of those voters are now turning away, and the broader political implications. The episode mixes poll analysis with phone interviews of voters describing real-life affordability strains.
Key findings from the New York Times poll
- Trump’s overall approval has fallen to about 40% (down from ~48% heading into the 2024 election).
- Only 34% approve of his handling of the cost of living; 64% disapprove. This is one of his worst issue ratings in the poll.
- Of voters who defected from Trump since the election, 44% cite economic issues as their reason for switching (versus 24% among other voters).
- A majority of respondents list “big-ticket” middle-class costs—housing, health care, education, child care—as their main affordability worries, rather than monthly groceries or utilities.
- Generational divide is stark: 24% of 18–29 year olds say they can afford the life they expect versus 63% of those 65+. Only 27% of young respondents say they’ve achieved a middle‑class lifestyle compared with ~66% of older voters.
- Broad perceptions: 65% say a middle‑class life is out of reach for most people; over 75% say it’s harder to achieve now than a generation ago.
- Party dynamics: Democrats lead by ~5 points among registered voters in a midterm context, but more people still identify as Republicans than Democrats; many dissatisfied voters remain persuadable or may disengage.
What voters say (voice-of-the-electorate examples)
- Many callers describe living paycheck-to-paycheck despite rising nominal incomes, feeling “drowning” or unable to save.
- Housing is repeatedly cited as the primary barrier to starting a family or achieving basic middle‑class milestones.
- Concerns also center on health insurance and education costs; these are viewed as life‑shaping, not just day‑to‑day inconveniences.
- Younger people feel the gap most acutely—homeownership, retirement savings and family formation feel increasingly unaffordable.
Why affordability is the central political problem (Cohn’s analysis)
- Trump won in 2024 by expanding into younger, non‑white and less engaged voter groups. Those gains have largely reversed one year in—many of those voters now disapprove of his performance.
- The economy remains the single most important reason for this reversal: voters expected more affordability gains and now feel worse off or believe Trump’s policies have made matters worse (tariffs, proposed cuts, perception of neglect).
- Objective economic signals are mixed: median real incomes have broadly kept pace with inflation, and more people now say the economy is “good” than during the inflation peak. But the costs of housing, health care and higher education have outpaced wages—especially for people who haven’t yet purchased big-ticket items—so subjective experience and objective aggregates diverge.
- Short-term gimmicks (caps on credit card rates, pharma deals, private equity bans on single-family homes) may help rhetorically but are unlikely to solve long‑running structural affordability problems.
Political implications and strategic takeaways
- Short term: Democrats are positioned to do well in the upcoming midterms because of discontent with Trump, but neither party currently has strong credibility on affordability.
- Medium/long term: Many voters who swung in 2024 are “up for grabs.” Some may return to Republican alignment, others may abstain or be persuadable if presented with credible, long-term plans.
- Structural problem: Affordability issues have fueled recurring cycles of “change” candidates (from Bernie to Trump and others). If mainstream politicians fail to deliver, voters will continue looking for outsider solutions—potentially producing new political realignments.
- Effective strategy requires credible, implementable plans addressing housing, health care, child care, and education costs—simple gimmicks won’t be enough.
Trump’s response and limits
- The administration has proposed bold-sounding measures (credit card interest caps, limiting private equity purchases of single-family homes, drug price deals).
- Cohn is skeptical these will materially change voter perceptions unless they translate into real, sustained progress on big-ticket costs.
- The president’s one unequivocal strength in the poll is his handling of the border; on almost all other issues voters disapprove.
What to watch next
- Whether Trump’s affordability proposals move beyond rhetoric to measurable outcomes.
- Midterm election results as a short-term test of voter backlash.
- How Democrats (or other challengers) craft credible affordability agendas that appeal to younger and lower‑income voters who feel most squeezed.
- Continued polling to see if the 2024 realignment proves durable or remains a temporary reaction to the previous administration.
Notable quotes
- “A majority of voters say that his policies have made life less affordable.” — Nate Cohn
- “65% of people said that a middle‑class life was out of reach for most people.” — poll finding cited in the episode
- Voter: “We’ve made the most money I ever thought I’d ever make, and it just doesn’t seem like it’s enough.”
Episode credits (brief)
- Host: Natalie Kitroeff; Guest analyst: Nate Cohn. Produced by Stella Tan, Olivia Natt, Carlos Prieto; edited by Mark George. Transcript excerpts include calls with voters collected by Times producers.
If you want the specific poll toplines or demographic cross-tabs Nate referenced, those are available in The New York Times’ polling release that accompanies this episode.