Overview of How to Bet on (Literally) Anything
This episode of The New York Times' The Daily (host: Natalie Kittrow‑F) with reporter David Yaffe‑Bellany explains the rapid rise of prediction markets — online platforms that let people bet on almost any event (political, cultural, even the wording of corporate earnings calls). The episode traces their origins, how they work, key legal battles, high‑profile moments that brought them mainstream attention, and the ethical, regulatory and social risks they raise.
What prediction markets are and how they work
- Basic mechanics
- Markets consist of binary "event contracts" (yes/no) priced between $0 and $1.
- Price ≈ the market's implied probability (e.g., 20¢ = 20% chance).
- If the event occurs, a winning contract pays out $1; otherwise it pays $0.
- Intended promise
- Founders pitch prediction markets as crowdsourced, market‑based signals that can aggregate dispersed knowledge and produce accurate forecasts (a form of “market‑based journalism”).
- Financial incentives (skin in the game) are supposed to drive participants to research and reveal truthful beliefs.
Origins and rapid mainstreaming
- Cultural/legal context
- The Supreme Court’s 2018 sports‑betting decision (overturning PASPA) normalized mobile betting in the U.S., creating a permissive culture for betting apps to proliferate.
- Polymarket and Shane Copeland
- Polymarket launched in 2020 amid the pandemic, pitched as a tool to distill confusing information (e.g., on COVID).
- Initially crypto‑only and U.S.‑restricted in practice (VPNs were widely used).
- Fast growth into mainstream (2023–2025)
- High‑profile predictive successes (or perceived successes) around the 2024 U.S. presidential cycle boosted attention.
- Big users/trades (the so‑called “French whale” reportedly made tens of millions betting on Trump) showed that a few large wagers can move prices.
- Partnerships and integration: NHL licensing deals, Polymarket as UFC partner, Kalshi partnership with Coinbase, Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal data deals, and display of odds on media broadcasts (e.g., Golden Globes).
Legal and regulatory landscape
- Regulatory classification
- Prediction markets fall under federal financial regulation (CFTC) rather than state sports‑betting laws — but the classification has been contested and evolving.
- Enforcement history
- Polymarket was fined ~$1.4M by the CFTC (2022) and agreed to stop operating for U.S. users; nonetheless many U.S. users accessed it via VPN.
- Federal criminal probes followed; FBI searched Copeland’s home after the 2024 election. Under the subsequent administration, some investigations were dropped and enforcement posture shifted.
- Kalshi won a major legal dispute with the CFTC, helping clear the path for broader U.S. availability.
- Ongoing uncertainty
- Rules around insider trading, market manipulation, and platform obligations remain underdeveloped and unevenly enforced.
High‑profile episodes and what they revealed
- Biden “drop‑out” market (2024): Polymarket odds that Biden would exit the race moved ahead of mainstream pundit consensus — touted as a validation of predictive markets.
- The French whale: A wealthy trader publicly claimed to have made huge bets (and profits) after commissioning his own polling — demonstrating how concentrated capital can shift market prices.
- Maduro removal bet: A large anonymous bet anticipating a U.S. operation to remove Venezuela’s leader raised fears of insider trading/leaks (no evidence proved it).
- Coinbase earnings‑call bets: Markets offered contracts on specific words an exec would say; Coinbase’s CEO publicly used those words during an earnings call, illustrating easy avenues for manipulation and the soft boundary between corporate communication and market influence.
Risks, harms and ethical concerns
- Market manipulation and insider trading
- Large, informed players can move prices; platforms and regulators have limited, uneven tools for policing bad actors.
- CEOs and powerful actors can influence outcomes they profit from (or could profit from).
- Gamification and addiction
- Platforms are designed to be engaging (bright interfaces, fast feedback). Popular especially among young men; addiction and financial harm are real risks.
- Moral hazards and commodifying suffering
- Betting markets have been created around wildfires, famines, wars and other human tragedies — turning real suffering into speculative assets and potentially creating perverse incentives.
- Information vs. exploitation tension
- Some proponents argue insider bets can actually improve market accuracy (if reflections of real info), but that conflicts with fairness and trust concerns for ordinary users.
Notable quotes & takeaways from the episode
- “Everything now has a price. Everything can be communicated in terms of the odds that it will happen or it won’t happen.”
- A Calci co‑founder’s ambition: to “financialize everything” — turn every opinion into a tradable asset.
- Market dynamics: a single large, well‑researched bet can meaningfully shift perceived probabilities (and media narratives).
Takeaways and what to watch next
- Momentum is real: trading volumes and mainstream partnerships have moved prediction markets from niche to prominent, and cultural appetite for “betting on everything” looks durable.
- Regulation is still catching up: expect continued legal fights, evolving CFTC guidance, and state/federal policy debates about acceptable markets and platform duties.
- Media integration is increasing: newsrooms and broadcasters are already using market data — transparency about methodology and conflicts of interest will matter.
- Consumer protection matters: addiction treatment, transparency about large traders, disclosure rules and anti‑manipulation safeguards will determine whether these markets can be safe and trusted.
Practical advice / recommendations
- For casual users: treat these platforms as gambling — risk only what you can afford to lose; be wary of hype and large traders.
- For journalists and newsrooms: disclose reliance on market prices and investigate who is moving the market (large trades, funding sources).
- For policymakers/regulators: prioritize clear rules on insider trading and manipulation, platform transparency, and consumer protections (age limits, spend limits, addiction resources).
- For platform designers: implement stronger anti‑manipulation monitoring, provenance of large bets, clearer reporting, and UX changes to reduce addiction risk.
Bottom line
Prediction markets promise a fast, crowd‑driven signal of future events and have rapidly moved toward the mainstream. That promise sits beside unresolved legal questions, clear potential for manipulation, and ethical dilemmas about turning tragedy and geopolitics into tradable bets. The field is at an inflection point — whether it evolves into a useful forecasting tool or a destabilizing, gamified market depends largely on regulation, platform safeguards, and cultural pushback.