Overview of A Turning Point for the Housing Market? | Nov. Housing Market Update (BiggerPockets)
Dave Meyer (BiggerPockets’ Head of Real Estate Investing) provides a November 2025 snapshot of the U.S. housing market, arguing we’re in a housing market correction — not a crash — that brings both risk and opportunity for real estate investors. He highlights improving inventory and affordability trends, regional variation, and practical tactics investors can use now (BRRRR, buying deep, local market research). The episode emphasizes planning around a “great stall” scenario: slow, gradual restoration of affordability via modest price/five/interest rate/wage shifts rather than a dramatic crash or instant rate drop.
Key takeaways
- Market state: correction (slowing appreciation, more inventory), not a crash.
- Prices: nominally ~flat to slightly up YoY (~1–2% by some indexes); real (inflation‑adjusted) prices have flattened/declined.
- Inventory: rising for 24 consecutive months; active listings up ~15% YoY, but still ~13% below pre-pandemic nationwide.
- Days on market: average ~63 days in October (about 5 days longer YoY).
- Affordability: improving for four consecutive months thanks to slightly lower mortgage rates, rising real wages, and flat/declining real home prices — the “great stall.”
- Local variation is large: some regions/cities remain hot while others are cooling — local data is essential.
Market data & trends (numbers you should remember)
- Price changes (list-price metrics): Redfin ~+2% YoY; Zillow/Realtor.com ~+1–1.5% YoY (nominal).
- List-price reductions: ~20% of listings had price cuts in October (up from ~18.5% in September).
- Inventory: up 15% YoY in October; 24 consecutive months of YoY inventory growth; still ~13% below pre-pandemic national levels.
- Regional list-price YoY (example): Midwest +0.8%, Northeast ~0%, South −1%, West −2.6%.
- Regional inventory growth: West & South +17% YoY; Midwest +12%; Northeast +9%.
- Selected city inventory jumps: Washington, D.C. +38%; Charlotte +36%; Las Vegas +35%.
- Days on market: ~63 days avg (19th straight month with YoY longer sales time); Miami ~90 days; Milwaukee ~30 days.
- Mortgage rates: peaked near 7.2% in mid-Jan 2025; currently ~6.25–6.3% (about a full percentage point lower than the Jan peak).
- Affordability: near 40-year lows in recent years, but showing modest improvement (four months in a row) in part due to real wages rising and real home prices flattening/declining.
Why this is a correction (not a crash)
- Inventory growth is real but slowing: growth rate fell from +29% in June to +15% in October.
- A crash typically requires accelerating inventory growth + forced selling (large-scale foreclosures or mass panic). That snowball effect isn’t present now — many sellers are simply choosing to hold rather than flood market supply.
- Sellers are beginning to price more realistically (increase in price reductions), which helps markets re-balance gradually.
The “Great Stall” — what it is and why it matters
- Definition: a gradual restoration of affordability driven by modest improvements across three components — flat/declining real home prices, slowly improving mortgage rates, and rising real wages — rather than a sharp price crash or swift drop in rates.
- Why it’s preferable: allows affordability to improve with less systemic disruption and gives investors time to adjust strategies.
Investor implications — risks and opportunities
Risks to protect against
- Buying at prices that will materially decline in your local market.
- Underestimating longer sales/hold times (budget extra carrying costs).
- Applying one-size-fits-all offers across different local market conditions.
Opportunities to pursue
- More inventory = more optionality and better chance to find value.
- Buyers can be patient, shop multiple deals, and use negotiation leverage in slower markets.
- Value-add plays, rent growth, zoning/BRRRR strategies can convert good buys into great long-term returns.
Actionable tactics (how to buy right now)
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Do localized research first (don’t rely on national headlines)
- Compare current inventory to pre-pandemic levels (Redfin Data Center recommended).
- Track days on market, list price changes, and recent sale prices in your target neighborhoods.
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Protect yourself against downside
- Buy deep: negotiate to a price you’d be comfortable holding through a further short-term decline.
- Confirm local fundamentals: if inventory, DOM, and price reductions are trending up, expect more downside risk.
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Position for upside
- Target properties with rent-growth potential, value‑add opportunities (sweat equity), zoning upside, or in the path of progress.
- Use BRRRR (Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat) — Dave identifies BRRRRs as especially well-suited today because you aren’t forced to resell quickly.
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Adjust financial planning
- For flips: budget longer holds and slower sales.
- For acquisitions: calculate stress-tested cash flows at slightly higher rates and lower rents to ensure resilience.
Tools & resources recommended
- Redfin Data Center — quick free national and local housing metrics (inventory, days on market, price changes).
- PropStream — property data, lead lists, comps, AI insights (deal sourcing).
- Host Financial — lender focused on property income (DTI-light), useful for investors.
- Avail — online rent collection (landlord tools).
- Fundrise Flagship Fund — passive private-market real estate option.
- Found — business banking and bookkeeping for landlords/operators.
Short checklist for investors right now
- Check inventory vs pre-pandemic levels in your target market.
- Review days on market and list-price reduction trends.
- Run conservative cash-flow and exit scenarios (stress test).
- Prioritize deals with durable upside (rent increases, value-add).
- If flipping, extend hold-time and contingency buffers; if buy-and-hold, consider BRRRR where appropriate.
- Use tools (Redfin, PropStream, Host Financial) to speed research, lending, and outreach.
Closing/Outlook
Dave’s view: we’re transitioning toward a buyer’s market with improving affordability through gradual, measurable changes. This presents both risk (falling asset prices in some local markets) and attractive long-term buying opportunities for disciplined investors who do the local homework, negotiate accurately, and plan for longer holds. The “great stall” scenario — slow, steady rebalancing — is the favorable path he expects, absent major economic shocks.
Disclaimer: This summary condenses the host’s market interpretation and data cited in the episode. Always verify local market data and consult qualified advisors before making investment decisions.