Summary of Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Overview of Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

In this Decoder interview, Verge host Nilay Patel speaks with Altana CEO Evan Smith about how global trade has become more volatile, how AI is changing the way trade-compliance software is built, and whether tariffs have actually reshaped manufacturing in the U.S. Smith argues that the world is moving toward a more fragmented, security-driven trade environment, and that Altana’s job is to help governments and companies manage that complexity with shared data, AI agents, and “product passports.” The big takeaway: tariffs have changed supply chains, but they have not meaningfully brought manufacturing jobs back to the United States.

Main Takeaways

• Global trade is becoming more complex, not less.

  • Tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and geopolitical conflict are turning trade into a constantly shifting compliance problem.
  • Altana sees this as a structural shift, not a temporary disruption.

• Tariffs did not restore U.S. manufacturing jobs.

  • Smith says the data shows manufacturing jobs continue to decline, even if manufacturing output has improved somewhat.
  • The likely reason: industrial automation, not labor-intensive reshoring.

• China is still central to global manufacturing.

  • Instead of eliminating dependence on China, tariffs have often pushed Chinese goods through third-party countries like Vietnam, Mexico, Canada, and Malaysia.

• AI is changing both trade operations and software development.

  • Altana is using agentic AI to automate customs brokerage, trade compliance, and workflow orchestration.
  • Inside the company, AI is also blurring the lines between product, engineering, and design roles.

• The future of trade is likely “federated,” not centralized.

  • Altana’s model is built on shared visibility without pooling all customer data into one giant commons.
  • The company argues that trust, sovereignty, and interoperability must coexist.

What Altana Does

Altana builds a networked platform that connects:

• Government agencies
• Logistics providers
• Enterprises and suppliers

Its core idea is to create a shared map of global supply chains so all parties can work from the same underlying facts.

Altana’s platform supports:

• Supply chain intelligence
• Customs and trade compliance
• Product traceability
• Risk screening
• Defense and economic security use cases
• AI-assisted collaboration across organizations

AI, Agentic Workflows, and Customs Automation

A major theme of the conversation was Altana’s acquisition of Servo AI, a company focused on customs brokerage automation.

Why this matters:

• Customs work has become more burdensome as trade rules multiplied.
• AI agents can now help automate the repetitive, document-heavy work of trade compliance.
• Smith says the real value is not “charging for tokens,” but charging for outcomes and units of work.

How Altana thinks about AI:

• AI can help create and maintain standard operating procedures (SOPs) for messy, heterogeneous trade data.
• Humans and agents work together:
  • Agents handle structured workflows
  • Humans intervene on edge cases
  • SOPs improve over time

Important caveat:

• Smith says AI is not a magic cost eliminator.
• Token costs and compute usage still matter, especially for agentic systems that do real work at scale.
• The company is adding “harnesses” and testing layers to keep AI-generated software reliable enough for mission-critical customers.

Tariffs, Supply Chains, and Manufacturing

The central policy question in the episode: Did tariffs bring manufacturing back to the U.S.?

Smith’s answer:

• No, not in the way politicians promised.
• Chinese imports to the U.S. have fallen, but much of that appears to be offset by:
  • rerouting through third countries
  • added transformation steps
  • higher costs for consumers and businesses

Manufacturing outcomes:

• Manufacturing output has improved somewhat after an initial drop.
• Manufacturing jobs have continued to decline.
• Smith attributes that gap to automation and the reality that modern factories do not resemble 1920s-style labor-intensive assembly lines.

A subtle policy point:

• Tariffs can change the location of activity and encourage capital investment.
• But they do not automatically create large numbers of blue-collar jobs.

Geopolitics, Chokepoints, and Economic Security

Smith argues that trade is now tightly linked to national security.

Key themes:

• Supply chain chokepoints are increasingly used as geopolitical weapons.
• Countries are turning to:
  • export controls
  • trade barriers
  • traceability requirements
  • sanctions
  • targeted industrial policy

Examples discussed:

• Critical minerals and rare earths
• Semiconductors
• Drones and autonomous systems
• The Strait of Hormuz, where shipping disruptions can have immediate economic consequences

Smith’s view is that choke points can escalate from economic pressure into kinetic conflict if countries become too dependent and too vulnerable.

Product Passports and Traceability

Altana is pushing the idea of a product passport: a continuously updated record of a good’s provenance, compliance status, and supply chain path.

Why governments want this:

• To screen goods more efficiently
• To enforce tariffs and customs rules
• To assess safety and national security risks
• To reduce “Groundhog Day” customs processing, where every shipment is treated like a first-time event

Why businesses want this:

• Faster border clearance
• Better compliance
• Fewer surprises from changing rules
• More predictable trade flows

The Company’s Internal Evolution

Altana is still relatively young, but Smith describes it as increasingly mature and complex.

Internal changes:

• Headcount is now just under 300
• The company is working through an extended leadership model
• AI is changing how teams collaborate
• Traditional role boundaries are blurring:
  • designers can ship code
  • PMs can prototype
  • engineers can weigh in on design

Organizational tension:

• The new AI-powered workflow creates speed, but also cultural friction.
• Some traditional roles feel threatened by convergence.

Notable Insights

• “Trade is the lifeblood of growth.”
• “The future is some version of agentic orchestration of the trade network.”
• “We’re not sharing everybody’s data with each other.”
• “The goal is more economic security, and therefore more physical security.”

Bottom Line

This episode is about the collision of trade policy, AI automation, and geopolitical fragmentation. Evan Smith makes the case that tariffs alone won’t rebuild U.S. manufacturing employment, but they are accelerating a broader shift toward traceability, compliance automation, and security-first supply chains. Altana’s bet is that the winning infrastructure for this new world will be a federated AI network that helps governments and companies manage global trade without sacrificing sovereignty or visibility.