Overview of Why the Housing Market Is Swinging in Buyers’ Favor
This episode of The Wall Street Journal’s PM edition (host: Alex Osola) runs through the day’s top business and political headlines, then deep-dives into why the housing market is shifting toward buyers. Coverage includes delayed economic data because of a partial government shutdown, risks exposed by pension-fund investments in private markets, U.S. trade and strategic moves, market and corporate news (Vanguard, Disney, Devon/Cotera), and a Redfin analysis showing more buyers negotiating prices below ask.
Key headlines (quick summary)
- January jobs report delayed due to a partial government shutdown affecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- A highly classified whistleblower complaint alleges wrongdoing by Tulsi Gabbard; disclosure has prompted internal wrangling.
- The U.S. reportedly agreed to cut tariffs on India (50% → 18%) as part of a broader deal; India agreed to stop buying Russian oil.
- The Trump administration plans a $12 billion strategic stockpile of rare-earth and critical minerals (“Project Vault”).
- U.S. and Iran officials are reportedly planning talks in Turkey; tensions remain high.
- Starlink disabled unauthorized Russian drone use after a request from Ukraine.
- Michigan pension fund lost large sums on direct private investments (coffee farm, Swiss renewable project), highlighting private-market risks.
- Markets: Dow +1.1%; silver and gold fell ~1.9%; Brent crude dropped ~4.4% on hopes for de-escalation.
- Vanguard cut fees on a sizable portion of its funds, combining with prior cuts to save clients an estimated $600 million.
- SIBO (reported) in talks to relaunch “all-or-nothing” options to compete with prediction markets.
- Major deals/corporate moves: Devon Energy to acquire Cotera Energy (~$22 billion, all-stock); Disney posts higher streaming profit but overall net income down, shares fall ~7.4% amid slower near-term growth guidance.
Jobs report delay & government shutdown
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January jobs report is postponed because House funding for BLS is tied up in a stalled legislative package (immigration enforcement disagreements).
- This is the second BLS work stoppage in five months; investors lose a key, comprehensive data source and must rely on partial private-sector reports.
- The report will be rescheduled once funding resumes; House expected to vote soon.
Highly classified whistleblower complaint
- WSJ reports a highly classified complaint filed last May alleging wrongdoing by Tulsi Gabbard (episode describes her as Director of National Intelligence; note that the show reports the allegation as presented).
- The complaint has been tightly controlled (locked in a safe), with officials warning disclosure could harm national security.
- The inspector general’s office reportedly found specific allegations against Gabbard not credible; Gabbard’s office calls the complaint baseless and politically motivated. Her lawyer accuses officials of stonewalling.
International & policy developments
- U.S.–India: Reported agreement to cut tariffs and for India to cease purchasing Russian oil — a potential de-escalation of a months-long trade spat.
- Project Vault: Administration creating a strategic stockpile of rare earths/critical minerals (gallium, cobalt) to reduce reliance on China.
- U.S.–Iran: Officials planning a meeting in Turkey; diplomats and military positioning continue.
- Starlink: Elon Musk said Starlink curtailed unauthorized use by Russian drones after Ukraine’s request.
Private markets and pension-fund losses
- Michigan’s ~$16 billion pension fund suffered sizable losses after direct investments in a large Hawaiian coffee farm and a Swiss renewable-energy company.
- Trend: Public pensions have increasingly shifted into private markets (private equity, real assets, private credit), seeking higher returns and lower fees.
- Risks highlighted: illiquidity (money can be locked up for years), less transparency and disclosure, limited recourse when projects fail. The fund is suing the manager in the renewable case.
Why the housing market is tilting toward buyers
- Redfin analysis: ~62% of homebuyers purchased below the original listing price last year — the highest share since 2019.
- Drivers:
- High mortgage rates and elevated prices have sidelined many potential buyers, reducing competition.
- Fewer buyers means those in-market have more negotiating power; sellers unwilling to budge are seeing listings linger.
- Implication for spring: Sellers may need to offer price cuts, concessions, or incentives to move inventory; buyers who can afford homes may find bargains.
Markets & corporate notes
- Vanguard fee cuts: Reduced expenses on a quarter of funds; combined with last year’s cuts, the moves are projected to save investors ~$600 million.
- SIBO and prediction markets: Regulatory/market interest in relaunching binary-style contracts that resemble prediction markets.
- Devon Energy + Cotera deal: ~$22 billion all-stock merger to become a major Permian Basin shale player.
- Disney: Streaming profit up, but overall net income down 6%; slower growth outlook (higher sports rights costs, park/cruise expansions, weaker international tourism) sent shares down and prompted board succession discussions. Quote from Bob Iger: “In a world that changes as much as it does… trying to preserve the status quo is a mistake.”
Notable quotes / soundbites
- “This is just a much more Wild West type of investing than public markets.” — on private-market risk and opacity.
- Bob Iger on Disney’s future leadership: “In a world that changes as much as it does, that in some form or another trying to preserve the status quo is a mistake.”
Key takeaways & action items
- For homebuyers: Reduced competition means more negotiating leverage; target listings from motivated sellers and expect potential concessions this spring.
- For investors: Private-market allocations can produce outsized returns but carry illiquidity, less transparency, and legal/recourse challenges — perform rigorous due diligence before direct-project investments.
- For market watchers: Watch for the rescheduled BLS jobs report (data vacuum can increase volatility) and policy moves like Project Vault and the U.S.–India tariff deal that could shift trade/commercial dynamics.
- For corporate watchers: Monitor Disney’s succession process and Devon/Cotera integration; Vanguard’s fee cuts continue pressure on fund fees across the industry.
Produced by The Wall Street Journal. Host: Alex Osola.