The Final U.S.-Russia Nuclear Weapons Pact Expires

Summary of The Final U.S.-Russia Nuclear Weapons Pact Expires

by The Wall Street Journal

14m•February 5, 2026
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Overview of The Final U.S.-Russia Nuclear Weapons Pact Expires

This Wall Street Journal AM edition (Feb 5) covers major national-security and economic headlines: the expiration of New START (the last U.S.–Russia nuclear arms treaty), stalled Senate negotiations on health-care subsidies and DHS funding, a major drop in U.S. manufacturing employment, and SpaceX pushing to join major stock indexes quickly after an IPO. The episode is hosted by Luke Vargas and features reporting from Michael Gordon, David Uberti, and others.

Main story — New START treaty expires

  • What happened: New START, the last treaty limiting strategic nuclear forces between the U.S. and Russia, expired overnight. The U.S. did not accept a Russian proposal to replace it; the treaty cannot be legally extended again.
  • What New START did: capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 per side and provided transparency measures (data exchanges, notifications, on‑site inspections).
  • Current status: Russia proposed an informal mutual observance of treaty limits for one year as a holding action; the U.S. response was delayed and mixed under the Trump administration, creating uncertainty about future arms-control policy.
  • Reactions: Russian foreign ministry signaled it intends to act “responsibly and in a balanced manner.” Experts warn the lapse raises fears of renewed arms competition and ends decades of bilateral strategic-arms constraints.
  • Reporter: Michael Gordon (National Security correspondent).

Domestic politics — health care, DHS, and federal workers

  • Affordable Care Act subsidies: Senate negotiations to renew expired ACA subsidies collapsed; roughly 20 million Americans could face higher premiums. Key sticking points included abortion coverage and plan structure. Bipartisan efforts failed to reach compromise.
  • DHS funding standoff: Senate talks appear unlikely to resolve funding in time. Democrats demand stricter oversight (including proposals for independent investigations and stronger transparency). Republicans have countered with measures such as restrictions on sanctuary cities. If talks fail, a stopgap for DHS is being considered by Senate GOP leadership, but Democrats are unlikely to back extensions without meaningful progress.
  • Federal civil service reclassification: The Trump administration is moving to strip civil‑service protections from about 50,000 federal employees who execute administration policies, making it easier to fire career officials. The Office of Personnel Management frames this as preventing “sabotage”; labor groups warn of politicization and purges.

Manufacturing decline — data and causes

  • The picture: About 200,000 manufacturing jobs lost since 2023; eight straight months of manufacturing job declines since the tariff package announced last April. Factory activity and manufacturing construction investment have contracted.
  • Why policies aren’t translating into job gains:
    • Tariffs have uneven effects: they lift prices/benefits for primary metal producers (steel/aluminum) but raise costs for downstream manufacturers that rely on those inputs, compressing margins and investment capacity.
    • Examples from reporting: InSteel (North Carolina) has had to import more steel because of shortages in U.S. steel suitable for its products; an auto-parts supplier (NN) cited higher input costs and squeezed margins limiting investment.
    • Macro forces:
      • Global competition, especially China and Southeast Asian exporters, continues to exert price pressure despite trade barriers.
      • Technological change: investments are often in automation, AI, and robotics that increase output but reduce labor needs — so output can rise or stay level while employment falls.
  • Reporter: David Uberti (reporting on manufacturing trends).

Markets & business briefs

  • SpaceX and index inclusion:
    • News: SpaceX is pushing for early inclusion in major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq‑100) immediately after an IPO. Nasdaq has proposed rules allowing especially large companies to join the Nasdaq‑100 within 15 trading days.
    • Rationale: Early index inclusion brings automatic buying from index funds, supporting liquidity and price stability after an IPO and countering post‑lockup selling.
    • Risks: Indexes traditionally wait to verify a company’s trading stability and fundamentals to avoid adding a company that might later collapse.
    • Notable companies that would qualify at current valuations: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic.
    • Commentator: Alex Frankos (Journal Finance Editor).
  • Quick market headlines:
    • Maersk: cutting ~1,000 jobs and trimming earnings forecast.
    • Shell: announced $3.5 billion share buyback.
    • Baidu: announced its first $5 billion buyback.
    • ArcelorMittal: bullish on EU protections vs. Chinese competition; stock up ~3%.

Notable quotes

  • Michael Gordon on New START: “This is a very significant milestone.”
  • Sen. Dick Durbin on DHS oversight: “Why shouldn't investigations be done by an independent source for their own credibility?... I don't think we compromise on some of them.”
  • Sen. Josh Hawley on DHS demands: “This is about trying to hamstring the entire agency… I just totally disagree with it. And I'm not going to help them do it.”
  • Alex Frankos on index inclusion: “The sooner you can get into these indexes, the sooner you have this wall of money coming at your stock.”

Key takeaways & watchlist

  • Arms control: Monitor U.S.–Russia diplomatic exchanges and any new bilateral proposals or unilateral buildups now that New START has expired.
  • Health-care costs: Watch for follow-up Senate maneuvers affecting ACA subsidies and the potential impact on premiums for ~20 million people.
  • DHS funding: Expect tense Senate negotiations; payment stopgaps remain possible but politically fraught.
  • Manufacturing: Short-term job losses likely to continue absent coordinated solutions; tariffs can have mixed, sometimes counterproductive, effects on investment and job creation.
  • Markets/IPO rules: Nasdaq’s proposed rule changes could reshape IPO dynamics for mega‑valued private companies — keep an eye on final rule decisions and how index inclusion timing affects post‑IPO flows.

Produced/published: The Wall Street Journal — What's News (AM edition), Thursday, February 5. Hosts and contributors include Luke Vargas, Michael Gordon, David Uberti, Alex Frankos, Christopher Mims, Tim Higgins.