Planning to Fly? War, Pricey Fuel and a Shutdown Are Making It Harder

Summary of Planning to Fly? War, Pricey Fuel and a Shutdown Are Making It Harder

by The Wall Street Journal

13m•March 22, 2026
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Overview of "Planning to Fly? War, Pricey Fuel and a Shutdown Are Making It Harder" (What's News Sunday — The Wall Street Journal)

This episode (March 22) examines why flying is getting harder and more expensive right now. WSJ aviation reporters Ben Katz and Ali Sider explain how the Middle East conflict involving Iran, sharply higher jet‑fuel prices, and a partial U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown are combining to disrupt routes, raise airline costs, and create passenger inconveniences and safety/operational uncertainty.

Key points / main takeaways

  • Middle East conflict has forced large swaths of regional airspace to close, rerouting flights and shortening the practical size of the global airway network.
  • There is no international standard that tells airlines when it is acceptable to fly through or near conflict zones; airlines and governments decide independently based on safety, economics and politics.
  • Major Gulf carriers have dramatically reduced schedules; some carriers such as Emirates and Etihad are recovering parts of their networks while others remain heavily curtailed.
  • European, Australian and other airlines are re‑routing or increasing service on alternate corridors to pick up displaced traffic; some carriers (e.g., Lufthansa) are reallocating capacity toward Asia.
  • Jet‑fuel prices have jumped sharply in recent weeks (nearly doubled over a short period), increasing airlines’ largest variable cost after labor.
  • Some carriers (SAS, Air New Zealand) have cut flights or capacity because ticket demand or customers can’t absorb the new fuel surcharges.
  • U.S. airline demand remains resilient for now, and U.S. airline CEOs expect to pass higher costs to consumers through fares — the practical effect depends on how long fuel stays expensive.
  • A partial U.S. DHS shutdown has left many TSA screeners unpaid, producing localized long lines and unpredictability at U.S. airports; continued shutdown could worsen the situation.

Topics discussed

  • Airspace closures and rerouting: lost corridors (e.g., between Iran and Israel), longer flights, extra fuel and crew costs, airport delays.
  • Airline risk assessments: lack of global conflict‑zone guidance; airlines balance safety, money and political messaging when choosing to resume service.
  • Carrier actions and examples:
    • Qatar Airways: operating only a handful of flights daily (severely reduced).
    • Emirates, Etihad: partial recovery (Emirates at over 50% of pre‑conflict daily flights at one point).
    • British Airways, Cathay Pacific: cancellations or suspensions into May/June for Tel Aviv service.
    • United: not expected to resume Dubai service until fall.
    • Lufthansa: shifting capacity to Asia.
    • SAS and Air New Zealand: trimming routes/capacity because higher fuel costs aren’t fully transferable to customers.
  • Fuel markets and hedging: many European carriers hedge fuel; most U.S. carriers no longer hedge and instead rely on fare increases and capacity management. Southwest abandoned hedging previously.
  • Consumer behavior: some travelers are booking sooner to “lock in” fares ahead of further price increases; JP Morgan commodity research recommended buying tickets now.
  • Airport operations in the U.S.: TSA staffing strain from unpaid screeners, localized but unpredictable delays.

Notable quotes / insights

  • There is no international/regulatory standard for evaluating whether airspace near conflict zones is safe enough to fly — decisions are made by individual airlines and governments.
  • “It’s kind of like a shrinking of the skies” — describing how recurring airspace closures (recently Russia, now parts of the Middle East) are constricting global routes.
  • Airline economics now hinge on whether consumers will accept higher fares or whether demand will soften, forcing more capacity cuts.

Practical advice for travelers (what to do)

  • If you have summer plans and are worried about rising fares, consider booking sooner rather than later — some analysts recommend buying now to avoid higher prices.
  • Expect potential airport delays in the U.S.: arrive earlier than usual, check airport advisories, and monitor TSA and airline updates.
  • Buy flexible or refundable fares, or add travel insurance that covers cancellations/changes (depending on policy details).
  • Check routing options—some flights may be rerouted or suspended; confirm final itineraries and connections.
  • If traveling through or near the Middle East, verify airline safety notices and government travel advisories.

What this means for airlines and the industry

  • Short term: higher fuel costs will likely be passed to consumers where demand stays strong; some carriers may selectively reduce capacity to protect profitability.
  • Medium term: sustained high fuel prices or prolonged conflict could force more cancellations, route reshuffling and longer‑term capacity reallocation (benefiting some carriers in different regions).
  • Operational unpredictability (airspace closures, staff shortages) increases the cost and complexity of scheduling, crew planning and customer service.

Bottom line

Travel demand remains resilient for now, but rising jet‑fuel prices, route disruptions from the Middle East conflict, and U.S. airport staffing issues are making flying more expensive and less predictable. Travelers should plan for higher fares, possible reroutes, and localized security delays — and consider booking flexibly or sooner to lock in prices.