Overview of Is Cuba Next? Inside Washington’s Push for Regime Change
Episode: What's News Sunday (The Wall Street Journal) — Feb 1
Host: Luke Vargas. Guests: Jose de Córdoba (Mexico City) and Vera Bergengruen (Washington, D.C.).
This episode examines growing U.S. efforts to pressure the Cuban government with the stated aim of forcing leadership change by the end of the year. Reporters outline Cuba’s acute economic collapse, describe how Washington is considering applying lessons from its Venezuela strategy, and assess the practical and political obstacles to any successful regime-change campaign.
Key takeaways
- Cuba is facing its worst economic crisis in decades: prolonged blackouts, severe food and medicine shortages, and heavy dependence on dollar remittances.
- A critical shortfall in fuel (Cuba uses ~100,000 barrels/day, produces ~40,000) has been partially met historically by Venezuelan shipments (~35,000 bpd). Disruptions to that supply sharply increase the risk of a near-term energy collapse.
- The Trump administration (and allied U.S. agencies) is exploring ways to squeeze Cuba’s hard-currency sources—like overseas medical missions—and to identify possible inside interlocutors in the Cuban regime.
- There is no clear, concrete plan for what would replace Cuba’s one‑party system; unlike Venezuela, Cuba lacks an organized domestic opposition and its political elite are more insulated and loyal.
- Major hurdles include Cuba’s high repressive capacity, emigration as the primary outlet for dissent, the risk of humanitarian catastrophe, and limited likelihood of substantial help from Cuba’s external partners (Russia, China).
Background & current situation on the island
- Economic crisis: widespread, historic in scale (reporters call it the worst since Cuba’s independence era). Blackouts in provinces can last many hours; medicine and food shortages are widespread; many rely on remittances in dollars.
- Public health strains: outbreaks of mosquito-borne illnesses have compounded hardship.
- Fuel dependence: Cuba consumes roughly 100k bpd, produces ~40k bpd for energy; shortfall historically covered in part by Venezuelan oil. Recent disruptions mean rapidly decreasing fuel availability could cause an electricity and transport collapse within weeks, depending on stocks.
- Social dynamics: Cuba’s political system is a tightly controlled one‑party state with little permitted civil society; historically, people emigrate rather than organize mass sustained protest (notable exceptions: Maleconazo 1994 and nationwide protests in 2021, both quashed quickly).
Note on transcript accuracy: the episode references a U.S. action “capturing Maduro” and a total cutoff of Venezuelan oil to Cuba. Public records do not support a literal capture of Nicolás Maduro; however, the broader point—disruption of Venezuelan fuel support to Cuba—remains central to the reporters’ argument.
How Washington is thinking about pressuring Cuba
- Inspiration from Venezuela: U.S. officials view the partial model used against Venezuela—targeted pressure, engagement with regime insiders where possible—as a blueprint they’d like to adapt.
- Economic levers: targeting sources of hard currency (notably payments from Cuba’s overseas medical missions and fuel imports) and pressuring third countries that deal with Cuba.
- Intelligence-driven assessment: CIA and other agencies are reportedly briefing senior officials and the president on Cuba’s vulnerability and considering options to increase pressure aiming for regime change within a specified timeframe.
Major hurdles and risks
- Lack of an internal opposition: Cuba does not have an organized opposition movement comparable to Venezuela’s, making internal “insider deals” less feasible.
- Loyalty of regime cadres: Cuban leaders are portrayed as long-term loyalists with less exposure to foreign business and fewer obvious incentives to defect or negotiate a soft exit.
- Repressive capacity: The government can quickly suppress unrest; historically it has done so effectively.
- Humanitarian consequences: Severe economic squeezing could produce a humanitarian crisis; political appetite in the U.S. to intervene or to bear the consequences is uncertain.
- Limited external support: Russia is preoccupied and can only intermittently help with oil; China is primarily commercial and unlikely to provide free support; Mexico’s contributions are small and under U.S. pressure.
What to watch (indicators that U.S. effort is taking shape)
- Policy moves: new sanctions, targeted measures against Cuban revenue streams (e.g., restrictions on payments for medical missions), or diplomatic pushes to cut third‑party support.
- Fuel/energy metrics: reports of escalating blackouts, fuel shortages, or interruptions in Venezuelan/Mexican shipments.
- Signs of elite fracture: defections, public resignations, or negotiations involving Cuban officials with foreign intermediaries.
- Domestic unrest: scale and frequency of protests beyond localized disturbances and whether repression escalates or fails.
- International responses: any overt Russian or Chinese material support, or coordinated regional responses (Caribbean or Latin American governments changing policies toward Havana).
- Humanitarian signals: spikes in emigration, emergency appeals, or international humanitarian deployments.
Notable quotes & framing
- “Cuba is in its worst economic crisis, probably since it became an independent republic in 1902.” — Jose de Córdoba
- “They’re masters at managing poverty and administrating repression.” — Vera Bergengruen
- “No one wants to be Fidel Castro’s last victim.” — Vera Bergengruen (on Cuban public risk calculus)
- Cuba is described as the “holy grail” for successive U.S. governments seeking a political turn in the Western Hemisphere.
Bottom line
U.S. officials perceive a window of vulnerability in Cuba driven by economic collapse and disrupted fuel supplies and are exploring pressure tactics inspired by operations against Venezuela. But Cuba’s political structure, the loyalty of its elites, weak civil-society channels, and the risk of humanitarian fallout make a swift, Washington-directed regime change highly uncertain. Key signs to monitor include new U.S. policy measures, worsening fuel and humanitarian conditions, elite defections, and any tangible external assistance to Havana.