Overview of Holiday Jobs Are Harder to Come By This Year
This Wall Street Journal PM edition covers the economic fallout from the recent U.S. government shutdown and how uncertainty is affecting holiday hiring. The episode features reporting and interviews on: the short-term economic impacts of the shutdown; retailers and shippers scaling back seasonal hiring; corporate tax complications from a new minimum tax; market moves; consumer trends in luxury travel; an infant-formula recall; and deadly explosions in South Asia. Interviews include WSJ economics reporter Justin Lehart and WSJ tax policy reporter Richard Rubin.
Key takeaways
- The government shutdown depressed economic activity but is expected to have a small long-term effect once back pay and delayed spending are accounted for; estimates vary (CBO: 6-week shutdown could cut Q4 GDP growth by ~1.5 percentage points).
- Major retailers and shippers (UPS, Target, Macy’s) are scaling back or being vague about typical large holiday hiring plans — a concern for lower-income and young workers who rely on seasonal roles.
- Corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) at 15% is limiting the benefit of new tax breaks for big firms; companies are seeking eased Treasury guidance.
- Stock markets rose as Congress moved closer to ending the shutdown (Dow +1.2%; S&P up; Nasdaq down ~0.3%).
- Luxury hotel room rates reached a record average of $394/night; affluent travel demand is up while mid- and lower-tier hotel demand has softened.
- ByHeart recalled all U.S. products amid an FDA botulism probe tied to 15 infant cases; no deaths reported.
- Explosions in India and Pakistan this week risk intensifying bilateral tensions; causes and responsibility remain contested.
Detailed summary
Government shutdown — economic effects and uncertainty
- The shutdown reduced activity during its duration. Much of that lost activity may be made up once federal workers receive back pay.
- The Congressional Budget Office estimated a six-week shutdown would shave about 1.5 percentage points off Q4 GDP growth; other economists offer less severe estimates.
- Difficulties in measuring impact stem from distinguishing reduced spending vs. draws on savings, SNAP disruptions, travel worries, and general economic uncertainty.
- Quote: "The word of the year for the economy has been uncertainty."
Holiday hiring pullback and implications for workers
- Big retailers and shippers did not announce the usual large seasonal hiring numbers this year (UPS, Target, Macy’s notably vague).
- Reasons: weaker consumer spending and wage growth not keeping pace with inflation have firms trimming hiring expectations.
- Impact: seasonal jobs are often crucial for low-income and young workers; reduced opportunities can materially hurt those who string together seasonal positions.
- Quote: "These are jobs that typically go to lower income workers, to young workers... If it's tougher to find that holiday job, it does make them worse off."
Markets and other headlines
- U.S. equities mostly rose as shutdown end neared: Dow +1.2% (third straight day of gains), S&P 500 slightly higher, Nasdaq down ~0.3%. Healthcare and energy outperformed; tech lagged.
- Sports note: Dallas Mavericks GM Nico Harrison was fired after making an unpopular trade (Luka Dončić was reportedly traded away in the transcript’s recap).
Corporate tax issue: CAMT vs. new tax breaks
- The corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) imposes a 15% floor on large companies’ tax burdens based on financial statement income.
- Recent tax legislation expanded breaks that could, ironically, push firms into CAMT and negate some expected benefits.
- Short-term: affected companies take accounting hits; excess CAMT can be credited forward in some cases.
- Medium-term: business coalitions are pressing Treasury to issue relaxed rules to preserve the intent of Congress in allowing the new breaks to be usable.
- Interviewed: WSJ tax policy reporter Richard Rubin.
Consumer trend: luxury hotel pricing
- CoStar data: average U.S. luxury hotel room price hit a record $394/night this year.
- Bookings at luxury properties are up ~2.5% through September; mid- and lower-tier hotels saw small drops.
- Explanation: wealthy travelers benefited from asset gains (stocks, real estate) and are spending more on premium travel.
Public health alert: ByHeart infant formula recall
- ByHeart voluntarily recalled all U.S. products after the FDA opened an investigation linking formula consumption to 15 infant botulism cases across a dozen states. No deaths reported.
- ByHeart says it hasn’t found botulism-producing spores in unopened cans and recalled out of caution.
- ByHeart products account for <1% of U.S. infant formula sales.
International: explosions in India and Pakistan
- Islamabad suicide bombing outside a courthouse killed 12; Pakistan’s PM blamed militants backed by India (India denies).
- A blast in New Delhi killed 8 and injured 20+; cause under investigation. These incidents raise bilateral tensions and mutual accusations.
Notable quotes and insights
- "The word of the year for the economy has been uncertainty." — on measurement and business planning difficulties.
- "These are jobs that typically go to lower income workers, to young workers... If it's tougher to find that holiday job, it does make them worse off." — on the importance of seasonal jobs.
- CAMT framing: companies can be pulled back to a 15% tax floor even after taking newly authorized tax breaks.
Data & numbers referenced
- CBO estimate: 6-week shutdown could reduce Q4 GDP growth by ~1.5 percentage points.
- Luxury hotel average room price (U.S.): $394/night (record).
- Luxury hotel bookings: +2.5% through September year-to-date.
- Stock moves: Dow +1.2%; Nasdaq -0.3%.
- Infant botulism: 15 infants reported; ByHeart <1% market share.
- Contact for listeners reporting flight disruptions: WNPOD@wsj.com; voicemail 332-214-8472.
Who appears / sources
- Host: Alex Osola (WSJ).
- Guests: Justin Lehart (WSJ economics reporter); Richard Rubin (WSJ tax policy reporter).
- Data sources cited: Congressional Budget Office, CoStar, FDA, companies (UPS, Target, Macy’s), WSJ reporting.
Practical takeaways / recommendations
- For seasonal workers: expect fewer advertised holiday temp roles this year; consider expanding search earlier, exploring multiple part-time/seasonal gigs, or alternative short-term work.
- For investors/companies: monitor Treasury guidance on CAMT and corporate tax rules; tax accounting impacts could affect earnings statements.
- For travelers affected by flight disruptions: WSJ requested listeners to send voice memos to WNPOD@wsj.com or call 332-214-8472 to share experiences.
Miscellaneous: episode includes an ad read for Degree Cool Rush and a promo for WSJ’s Bold Names podcast.