OECD Warns of Recessions If Iran War Drags On

Summary of OECD Warns of Recessions If Iran War Drags On

by The Wall Street Journal

12mJune 3, 2026

Overview of What's News from The Wall Street Journal

This edition of What's News covers a mix of U.S. politics, trade policy, and global economic risks. On the domestic front, results from key primaries in California and Iowa are still unfolding, with some notable upsets and early leads. On the policy side, the Trump administration has proposed new tariffs on a wide range of trading partners, while the OECD warns that an extended war in Iran could trigger severe global slowdowns and even recessions in some regions. The episode also includes a quick market and corporate roundup, from Google’s AI scraping rules in the U.K. to Baidu, Akzo Nobel, Inditex, and Novo Nordisk.

U.S. Politics and Election Results

California primaries

  • In the race to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra were leading as votes continued to be counted.
  • Hilton, a former Fox News host, emphasized his endorsement from President Trump and argued that a cooperative relationship with Washington would benefit California.
  • Becerra, a former U.S. Health Secretary, surged in a crowded Democratic field and could become California’s first Latino governor since the late 1800s.

Los Angeles mayor’s race

  • Incumbent Karen Bass advanced to a runoff.
  • The opponent was still unclear as counting continued, with Spencer Pratt unexpectedly in second place at the time of the report.

Iowa gubernatorial primary upset

  • Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra lost in the Republican primary to businessman and farmer Zach Nunn.
  • The result was presented as a rare rebuke to Trump’s influence in the state.
  • Nunn will face Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand in November in what is expected to be a competitive race.

Redistricting and House politics

  • The Supreme Court allowed Alabama to use a congressional map that removes a Democratic seat, giving Republicans an edge in the redistricting fight.
  • Despite that and another court ruling involving Virginia, analysts still see Democrats as having a strong chance to win the House, aided by:
    • Trump’s negative approval ratings
    • voter enthusiasm against the party in power
    • fallout from the Iran conflict

Trade Policy and Tariff Developments

New tariff proposal from the U.S.

  • The Trump administration proposed at least 10% tariffs on major trading partners including:
    • Canada
    • Mexico
    • the U.K.
    • the EU
  • A separate 12.5% tariff was proposed for countries including:
    • China
    • Japan
    • India
    • South Korea

Why this matters

  • The tariffs were tied to an investigation into goods allegedly linked to forced labor.
  • WSJ economics editor Paul Hannon explained that this is partly a legal workaround:
    • Earlier tariff authorities had been challenged or ruled illegal.
    • The administration needs a new legal basis before existing emergency authority expires.
  • He noted this is not necessarily a full retreat from tariff pressure, since more investigations could follow.

Reaction and implications

  • The proposed rates are lower than some earlier tariff levels, and some trading partners may not strongly object if the rates stay within existing agreement limits.
  • The EU, for example, may have limited grounds to complain if tariffs remain below the 15% ceiling in its agreement with the U.S.

OECD Warning: Iran War Could Tip the World Into Recession

Main warning

  • The OECD said that if fighting in Iran continues for a prolonged period, the world could face multiple recessions.
  • If the conflict stretched into 2027, it could produce:
    • severe global growth slowdowns
    • the weakest year for global growth this century, excluding COVID and the global financial crisis
    • recessions in some countries

What the OECD expects if the conflict ends soon

  • If the war ends relatively soon, the damage would still be meaningful but manageable.
  • The OECD left the U.S. growth forecast at 2% in that more optimistic scenario.

Who would be hit hardest

  • According to Hannon, the most vulnerable economies would likely be:
    • parts of Europe
    • Asian economies heavily dependent on energy from the Persian Gulf

Media and Market Headlines

CBS and 60 Minutes

  • Veteran 60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley was fired after criticizing CBS leadership in a staff meeting.
  • He said the move was politically motivated and accused management of weakening journalistic standards to placate the Trump administration.
  • CBS parent Paramount did not immediately comment.

Other market and business updates

  • U.K. regulators said publishers may be able to opt out of having their content scraped by Google’s AI tools, which could strengthen publishers’ negotiating position.
  • Baidu shares rose after the company projected healthy revenue growth from AI, even as its traditional search and ad business remains weak.
  • Akzo Nobel dropped sharply after rivals Sherwin-Williams and Nippon Paint abandoned their takeover bid; Akzo now supports a merger with Exalta Coating Systems.
  • Inditex reported nearly 12% quarterly sales growth, helped by resilient demand despite higher shipping and material costs tied to Middle East tensions.
  • Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill began selling in the United Arab Emirates, making it the second market after the U.S. to offer the drug.

Key Takeaways

  • Politics: California and Iowa primaries produced notable early leads and a Trump-backed loss in Iowa.
  • Trade: The U.S. is building a fresh legal foundation for tariffs while widening pressure on major trading partners.
  • Global risk: The biggest economic threat now appears to be the Iran conflict, not tariffs.
  • Markets: AI policy, takeover activity, and consumer demand remain major drivers across global equities.