As Midterm Election Results Roll In, These Are the Races to Watch

Summary of As Midterm Election Results Roll In, These Are the Races to Watch

by The Wall Street Journal

14m•November 3, 2026
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Overview of As Midterm Election Results Roll In, These Are the Races to Watch

This episode of WSJ’s What's News centers on Election Day midterm coverage, highlighting the House and Senate races most likely to signal how the night is unfolding. It also covers President Trump’s surprise comments about ending U.S. military aid to Israel, fresh developments in the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s markets, a post-midterm stock bump, and the growing political sensitivity around whether companies call AI “artificial intelligence” or “superintelligence.”

Midterm Election Races to Watch

The main focus is which early races could provide an early read on whether Democrats or Republicans are outperforming expectations.

House: Early bellwethers

  • Kentucky’s 6th District is treated as an early barometer.
    • Democrats would view a win here as a sign of a possible broader wave.
    • The race pits Ralph Alvarado against Zach Dembo.
  • Indiana is another key early race.
    • Victoria Spartz is in a surprisingly tight re-election contest.
    • A Republican loss there would be a bad sign for the party.
  • For Republicans, early strength in the New York/New Jersey metro area would matter:
    • Mike Lawler and Rebecca Bennett are among the races being watched for GOP resilience.

Senate: Iowa as a key signal

  • Iowa is framed as a major bellwether:
    • The governor’s race could flip if Democrat Rob Sand wins.
    • In the Senate race, Republican Ashley Hinson faces Josh Turek.
    • A Turek victory would be a strong sign of an unusual Democratic surge.

What results could mean

  • Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to win control.
  • The House could be called relatively quickly if Democrats win early Republican-leaning races.
  • The Senate remains the more uncertain chamber, with several competitive races in Republican-leaning states.
  • Chuck Schumer summed up Democratic hopes as “nauseously optimistic.”

Trump Says U.S. Will Cut Off Military Aid to Israel

The episode also covers President Trump’s statement that the U.S. will stop direct military aid to Israel by the end of the year.

What changed

  • Trump said the move had been discussed with Benjamin Netanyahu.
  • The surprise was less the idea itself than the accelerated timeline.
  • Israeli officials had expected a slower phase-out over about a decade.

Why it matters

  • The segment suggests this reflects:
    • shifting political support for Israel in both parties,
    • pressure from parts of the Republican base,
    • and broader efforts to redesign the U.S.-Israel security relationship.

Congressional role

  • Final control of the money lies with Congress, through the defense policy process.
  • One option discussed is shifting from direct aid to joint procurement or cooperative defense programs, such as missile defense or drone technology.

Global Headlines and Market Moves

Russia-Ukraine war

  • More than 70 people were injured in a Russian strike on a hospital in Kharkiv.
  • Ukraine’s president said Russia is escalating attacks on civilians while the U.S. is distracted by the midterms.

China’s markets

  • WSJ reports Chinese regulators told major securities firms and banks to slow IPO activity and focus on supporting the stock market.
  • This comes as the Shanghai Composite has fallen more than 9% in two months.

U.S. markets

  • Stocks got their usual midterm-election boost:
    • S&P 500: up 0.4%
    • Nasdaq: up 0.8%
    • Dow: down 0.4%, its worst midterm Election Day showing since 1990
  • CVR Energy agreed to buy two refineries from Marathon Petroleum for $4.2 billion.
  • The deal fits a broader trend of energy companies expanding refining capacity amid tight global fuel supply.

The AI Language Battle: “Artificial Intelligence” vs. “Superintelligence”

The final segment looks at Trump’s push to rename AI as “superintelligence.”

The political problem

  • Trump has argued “artificial” makes the technology sound fake.
  • He’s publicly encouraged the term superintelligence and even framed use of “artificial intelligence” as politically suspect.

How tech leaders are responding

  • Executives are being careful with wording, including figures like Elon Musk, David Sacks, and Jason Calacanis.
  • WSJ’s analysis found that among 119 S&P 500 companies discussing the technology recently, only five used some version of “superintelligence.”

Why the term hasn’t caught on

  • “Superintelligence” has a specific meaning in AI circles:
    • a hypothetical system that surpasses human intelligence.
  • That narrower meaning makes it less flexible as a general corporate or policy label.

Key Takeaways

  • Election night watchwords: Kentucky, Indiana, and Iowa are highlighted as early indicators of which party has momentum.
  • House control could become clear sooner than the Senate result.
  • Trump’s Israel comments may signal a larger shift in U.S.-Israel defense funding, but Congress still matters.
  • Geopolitical tension remains high, with new violence in Ukraine and continued Chinese market strain.
  • AI branding is now political, and the phrase a company uses may signal alignment as much as technical nuance.