Overview of Can Trump help Sudan? (Today Explained — Vox)
This episode explains the unfolding civil war in Sudan, focusing on the two generals leading opposing forces, the scale and nature of atrocities (particularly in Darfur/El-Fashir), and whether outside actors — notably the United States and regional powers in the Gulf — can broker a ceasefire. It assesses President Trump’s recent unexpected public offer to get involved, the diplomatic landscape (the “Quad”), who is arming and profiting from the conflict, and the realistic prospects for ending the violence.
Background: how Sudan got here
- Sudan has endured decades of authoritarian, often military, rule since 1969.
- A popular uprising in 2019 led to a transition toward civilian rule, but a 2021 coup by military leaders derailed that progress.
- The coup’s leaders — once allies — later split and are now fighting a brutal civil war that has produced mass atrocities, displacement, and humanitarian collapse.
- The conflict is concentrated in Khartoum and Darfur (notably El-Fashir), where fighting has included aerial bombardments, shelling, targeted attacks on hospitals, house-to-house killings, mass rape, and documented massacres.
The two men destroying Sudan
Alex de Waal (World Peace Foundation/Tufts) and Vox explain the two central figures and their forces.
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (SAF — Sudan Armed Forces)
- Profile: Career military officer; part of the post-coup leadership that claims to represent the government.
- Goals: Restore the old status quo to reassert the state (which many protesters opposed in 2019).
- Conduct: SAF has committed war crimes — blocking humanitarian aid, targeting opposition areas, and enabling vengeful local units (including Islamist brigades). The coalition is fractious; some allies resist peace moves.
Lieutenant General Mohammed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo (RSF — Rapid Support Forces)
- Profile: Former Janjaweed-linked paramilitary leader turned commander of the RSF; amassed wealth via gold mining and business interests.
- Goals: Seeks personal and familial power — effectively running Sudan as a private enterprise supported by his militia.
- Conduct: RSF has been responsible for extreme brutality: looting, mass rapes, public executions, and genocidal-scale attacks in Darfur and El-Fashir. RSF fighters have filmed themselves committing atrocities.
Atrocities and evidence
- Satellite imagery and filmed footage show mass killings and scenes of extreme violence (some footage is too graphic for broadcast).
- El-Fashir fell to RSF forces in late October; reports describe house-to-house murder, sexual violence used systematically, and children and civilians suffering acute hunger and terror.
- International NGOs and media have documented patterns that many describe as genocidal or war crimes.
Diplomacy: who’s trying to stop it?
- The most active grouping is the “Quad”: United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. They proposed a ceasefire package: a three-month humanitarian pause, a permanent ceasefire, and a nine-month transition to civilian rule.
- RSF has at times agreed to ceasefire terms; the SAF has been less consistent. Fighting has continued even amid negotiations (rocket and drone attacks on Khartoum, further paramilitary operations).
- The UN and other bodies have called for deployment of peacekeepers and for unfettered humanitarian access.
External backers and incentives
- The RSF is widely reported to receive weapons and support from the UAE (denied by UAE), with documented transfers, media investigations, and leaked UN reporting suggesting UAE backing.
- Motivations for UAE involvement likely include: access to Darfur’s gold, securing economic ties and influence, and a regional strategy of backing proxy forces to extend influence.
- The U.S. maintains strong ties with the UAE and other Gulf states; those relationships are potentially leverage points to pressure external support for the RSF.
Can Trump help?
- Trump unexpectedly announced he would get involved in Sudan after talks in the Gulf. The episode assesses the realistic impact of that move:
- Potential strengths: Trump’s personal ties with Gulf leaders, ongoing engagement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and his appetite for high-profile diplomatic wins (and a Nobel Peace Prize narrative).
- Limitations: The conflict is highly complex, with deep local drivers, multiple patrons, and factions; Trump’s rhetorical tendency to oversimplify and his close ties to Gulf leaders could limit willingness to publicly pressure them.
- Practical leverage would likely require the U.S. (or Trump) to press Gulf partners — especially the UAE — to cut military and financial support for the RSF and to push both sides to honor ceasefire terms.
Key takeaways
- Sudan’s war is driven by competing military/personal power interests entrenched by decades of conflict, and it has produced large-scale, often filmed atrocities (Darfur/El-Fashir are emblematic).
- Both sides have committed war crimes; the RSF’s conduct (mass rape, extrajudicial killings) has drawn particular international condemnation.
- Diplomacy is led by regional players plus the U.S. (the Quad). A ceasefire proposal exists but is fragile and partially implemented.
- The UAE’s pragmatic interests (gold, influence) are a major driver of continued RSF capability; cutting that external support is pivotal.
- Trump’s unexpected offer to intervene could matter only if it translates into credible pressure on Gulf backers and coordinated diplomatic/political steps — not just public statements.
Recommendations / actions likely needed to reduce violence
- Immediate and enforceable ceasefire monitored by neutral actors and followed by a humanitarian pause.
- International pressure to cut external military and financial support for the RSF (targeting supply lines, arms transfers, and illicit gold trafficking channels).
- Rapid, expanded humanitarian access and protection for civilians, plus efforts to deploy a properly authorized UN peacekeeping presence.
- Diplomatic unity among the Quad (and others) to tie incentives — sanctions, aid, investment — to compliance with ceasefire and transition benchmarks.
- Accountability measures: documenting crimes, supporting impartial investigations, and signaling that impunity won’t be tolerated.
Notable quote:
- President Trump: “Sudan, we're going to start working in Sudan. I didn't think that. I thought it was just something that was crazy and out of control.”
This episode stresses that ending Sudan’s war will require sustained, coordinated pressure on both domestic actors and their foreign backers, not just headline-grabbing diplomatic gestures.