Emmy Predictions, Netflix Is Adapting ‘Lonesome Dove,’ and ‘The Paper’ Season 2

Summary of Emmy Predictions, Netflix Is Adapting ‘Lonesome Dove,’ and ‘The Paper’ Season 2

by The Ringer

1h 18m•September 10, 2026
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Overview of The Watch with Chris Ryan and Andy Greenwald

In this episode of The Watch, Chris Ryan and Andy Greenwald cover a mix of TV industry news and awards chatter, led by the surprise-big-but-also-inevitable announcement that Netflix is adapting Lonesome Dove into a limited series. They also run through several major Emmy race predictions, discuss the newly released Season 2 of The Paper, and finish with a surprisingly long bonus conversation about NFL teams traveling to Australia and the reality of jet lag.

Lonesome Dove Is Coming to Netflix

The biggest headline is that Zoe Kazan and Jeb Stuart are set to write and co-showrun a new Lonesome Dove series for Netflix, with the streamer also securing rights to the full book cycle:

  • Lonesome Dove
  • Streets of Laredo
  • Comanche Moon
  • Dead Man’s Walk

Why they’re excited

  • Both hosts are deeply enthusiastic about Lonesome Dove as one of the great American novels.
  • They see the adaptation as a major opportunity to do the material more completely and expansively than the classic CBS miniseries.
  • They like that Netflix is leaning into a project that can be both prestige/literary and broadly popular.

Concerns and hopes

  • They want it shot in Texas and done with enough authenticity and scale to match the setting.
  • Chris admits some anxiety about revisiting something he feels emotionally attached to, even though he trusts the team.
  • They discuss how the broader four-book arc could correct some of the limitations of the original miniseries, especially around:
    • Native characters
    • Women’s interior lives
    • Historical context
    • The deeper meaning of the story’s tragedy

Casting speculation

They spend a lot of time jokingly but seriously casting the main roles. The most natural fit they land on:

  • Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson as the most obvious modern-day candidates for Call and Gus
  • Possibilities for other roles include:
    • Tom Pelphrey or Ebon Moss-Bachrach as Jake Spoon
    • LaKeith Stanfield as Deets
    • Paul Dano as July Johnson
    • Jacob Lofland as Newt
    • Jodie Comer-type and other younger stars are discussed indirectly as possibilities for the wider ensemble

Emmy Predictions: Will Win vs. Should Win

Chris and Andy then go through several major Emmy categories and compare who they think will win versus who should win.

Comedy Series

Nominees discussed include Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Hacks, Nobody Wants This, Only Murders in the Building, Shrinking, and Widow’s Bay.

  • Will win: Widow’s Bay
  • Should win: Widow’s Bay

They praise it as one of the funniest and most exciting shows of the year.

Drama Series

Nominees include The Diplomat, The Gilded Age, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, Paradise, The Pitt, Pluribus, Slow Horses, and Your Friends and Neighbors.

  • Will win: The Pitt
  • Should win: Pluribus

They admire The Pitt as a strong, familiar, awards-friendly hit, but think Pluribus is the more inventive and worthy choice.

Limited Series / Anthology

They discuss nominees such as Beef, DTF St. Louis, All Her Fault, The Beast in Me, and others.

  • Will win: DTF St. Louis
  • Should win: Beef

Chris emphasizes that DTF St. Louis is a nice awards story for Steve Conrad, while Andy thinks Beef was the stronger overall show.

Lead Actor in a Comedy

They review a crowded field including Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Steve Carell, Matthew Rhys, Jason Segel, and Martin Short.

  • Andy thinks Matthew Rhys has a real chance to win for Widow’s Bay.
  • He notes Rhys’s flexibility and how well he’s navigating modern TV roles.

Lead Actor in a Drama

Nominees include Sterling K. Brown, Gary Oldman, Mark Ruffalo, Rufus Sewell, and Noah Wyle.

  • Will win: Noah Wyle
  • Should win: Mark Ruffalo

They praise Wyle’s long-run, classic-TV style performance in The Pitt, but think Ruffalo’s work in Task was the best of the group.

Lead Actress in a Drama

Nominees include Keri Russell, Rhea Seehorn, Zendaya, Chase Infiniti, and Carrie Coon.

  • Will win: Keri Russell
  • Should win: Rhea Seehorn or Zendaya, depending on what you value most

They call out:

  • Russell’s momentum and awards narrative
  • Seehorn’s overdue recognition
  • Zendaya as the “pace car” in a chaotic, high-intensity season of television

Lead Actress in a Comedy

Nominees include Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edebiri, Elle Fanning, Lisa Kudrow, and Jean Smart.

  • Will win: Jean Smart
  • Should win: Elle Fanning, with some love also for Ayo Edebiri

They note that Emmy voters love Jean Smart, but Fanning has a legitimate case because of how much range she showed.

Limited Series / Movie Actress

They also talk about:

  • Claire Danes (The Beast in Me)

  • Sally Field (Remarkably Bright Creatures)

  • Carrie Mulligan (Beef)

  • Sarah Pidgeon (Love Story)

  • Sarah Snook (All Her Fault)

  • Will win: Sarah Pidgeon

  • Should win: Carrie Mulligan

The Paper Season 2

Chris and Andy both like the idea of The Paper as a comfort-watch style ensemble comedy, but they’re still working through some structural issues.

What’s working

  • The show has improved from Season 1.
  • The second episode, in particular, gives a better sense of:
    • who the characters are
    • which pairings work
    • what kind of jokes the show should lean into
  • Standouts include:
    • Eric Rahill as Travis
    • Chelsea Frei as Mare
    • Sabrina Impacciatore as Esmeralda
    • Tim Key as a good new addition

What’s not working yet

  • Chris is frustrated by the show’s continued commitment to the documentary conceit.
  • He thinks the show spends too much energy justifying the camera crew instead of trusting the comedy.
  • He also worries the ensemble is too large and that some characters are still undefined.
  • His broader point: the show has promise, but it feels like it still needs time to find its balance.

Bonus: NFL Teams, Jet Lag, and Australia

The episode ends with a long, funny digression about the 49ers and Rams playing in Australia.

Main points

  • The 49ers flew out early to acclimate.
  • The Rams flew in and out quickly, seemingly betting on brute-force circadian denial.
  • Chris and Andy debate whether that strategy could possibly work.
  • They compare the trip to extreme long-haul travel they’ve both done and agree that jet lag is real and unavoidable.

Their take

  • They’re skeptical that a “just push through it” approach can beat biology.
  • They find the whole thing fascinating because it reflects how much professional sports teams now rely on science, sleep, and travel strategy.
  • They expect the Australia trip and its effects to be a major topic on the next episode.

Key Takeaways

  • Netflix’s Lonesome Dove adaptation is the major story of the week and has both hosts genuinely excited.
  • The Emmys are shaping up predictably in some categories (The Pitt, Jean Smart, Noah Wyle), but they’re rooting for more adventurous winners like Pluribus and Rhea Seehorn.
  • The Paper is improving, but still uneven, especially around its mockumentary mechanics.
  • The show closes with a classic The Watch mix of pop culture analysis, industry chatter, and deeply specific sports nerdery.