The 2026 Box Office Draft

Summary of The 2026 Box Office Draft

by The Ringer

38m•January 19, 2026
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Overview of The 2026 Box Office Draft (The Town — The Ringer)

This episode is The Town’s fourth annual box office draft: hosts Matt Belloni and Lucas Shaw (with Craig Horvath moderating) each pick seven wide-release films they expect to be the biggest worldwide box office performers in 2026. Picks are scored by worldwide gross minus production budget (marketing excluded). Each player also assigns the other a “bomb” — a movie they think will flop — with the bomb required to have a production budget of at least $100M. Draft order was decided by a studio trivia question; the winner chose first pick over first bomb.

Draft rules & format

  • Two players (Matt Belloni and Lucas Shaw), alternate picks.
  • Each selects seven movies slated for 2026 theatrical release.
  • Scoring = worldwide box office minus production budget (marketing not included).
  • Each player assigns the opponent one “bomb” (a big-budget movie they expect to fail).
  • Bombs must have budgets ≥ $100M. Contingency clause allowed if budget reporting later shows lower than $100M.
  • Trivia opener determined who chooses between first draft pick or first bomb.

Trivia opener — fun fact

  • Trivia question: most films released by one studio in a single year (sound era).
  • Answer: 68 films — a tie between Paramount (1936) and Warner Bros (1937).

Picks summary

Note: release dates and estimates cited are those discussed on the episode when available.

Lucas Shaw (first pick)

  1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day — July 31 (big franchise, past Spider-Man at $1.9B; concern: IMAX exclusivity of Nolan film could reduce early IMAX weekend)
  2. Super Mario Bros. — (first major kids movie window; considered very high floor, likely ≥ $1B)
  3. The Odyssey (Christopher Nolan) — (high ceiling, IMAX play, worldwide spectacle; big range: could be mid‑high hundreds to >$1B if crossover success)
  4. Mandalorian (Grogu / Star Wars feature) — (Favreau-directed, IMAX; concerns about theatrical justification vs TV roots; likely < $1B but sizable)
  5. Dune: Part (final) — (Chalamet/Zendaya, IMAX, strong international appeal; last Dune did ~$715M)
  6. Jumanji 3 — Dec 11 (reliable overseas performer; last installment ~$800M)
  7. Devil Wears Prada 2 — (nostalgia sequel; upside if it taps older fans and becomes a cultural moment)

Bomb assigned to Lucas by Matt: Masters of the Universe

  • Rationale: big ($~200M) budget, unclear modern relevance, problematic early footage, risk of box-office poison casting, Amazon’s inexperience with tentpole theatrical releases.

Matt Belloni (second pick)

  1. Toy Story 5 — June 19 (Pixar franchise, Andrew Stanton directing; seen as a “can’t lose” nostalgia family play)
  2. Avengers: Doomsday — Dec 18 (huge ceiling — prior Avengers reached $2.9B; debate whether Marvel fatigue/recent underperformance lowers ceiling)
  3. Minions 3 — July 1 (consistent global performer, typically around ~$0.8–1.0B)
  4. Moana (live-action) — (nostalgia + music; concerns about market saturation with other kids films later in summer)
  5. Michael (Michael Jackson biopic) — April 24 (huge international ceiling if it plays as fan-centric concert/celebration; domestic controversies and “toxicity” concerns could limit U.S. take)
  6. Disclosure Day (Steven Spielberg) — June 12 (high upside if it breaks through; Spielberg’s box-office pull for modern youth is uncertain)
  7. Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping — Thanksgiving corridor (thanksgiving slot; legacy franchise with potential big performance)

Bomb assigned to Matt by Lucas: The Bride

  • Rationale: messy early press/tracking, perceived production issues and marketing concerns; debate whether reported budget meets the $100M threshold.

Notable reasoning and themes from the draft

  • Franchise & family movies are the “safe” picks: Toy Story 5, Super Mario, Minions, Spider-Man, Jumanji and (to a lesser degree) Avengers are thought to anchor the year.
  • Big swings / high ceilings: Nolan’s The Odyssey, Dune, Michael — these are picks with big upside but also notable risk.
  • Release-window interactions matter: Nolan’s IMAX exclusivity might blunt Spider-Man’s IMAX opening; The Odyssey’s timing near Spider-Man could cannibalize box office; Minions and Toy Story back-to-back might create cross-promotion opportunities or competition.
  • Hollywood fatigue and brand perception are factors: discussions about Marvel’s variable recent returns, whether Spielberg’s name still drives younger audiences, and how nostalgia sequels perform.
  • International vs domestic splits: participants repeatedly cited international potential (e.g., Michael, Dune) as critical to huge global totals.
  • Bomb strategy: bombs are typically expensive tentpoles with shaky early reaction or questionable theatrical logic (e.g., Masters of the Universe, The Bride).

Wild cards and notable omissions

  • High-profile titles not chosen by either: Project Hail Mary (Amazon original/sci‑fi), Supergirl, Hopper, Meet the Fockers (reboot), and other Thanksgiving contenders like Narnia (IMAX-heavy release) were discussed but left off both rosters.
  • The group highlighted that several studios (Amazon, Neon, etc.) are attempting theatrical tentpoles with mixed track records, which introduces unpredictability.

Final takeaways and what to watch

  • Top-tier candidates to lead the year: Toy Story 5, Spider-Man, Super Mario, Avengers — these form the core of expected billion-dollar titles.
  • The draft will likely be decided by who correctly times the big swings: The Odyssey, Dune, Michael, or one of the nostalgia/sequel gambles.
  • Masters of the Universe and The Bride are the bombs to watch — if either underperforms per the draft criteria, it could swing the outcome.
  • The hosts will track results on a fan-built site (“Fantasy Box Office”) and update seasonally; winner gets taken to a Dodgers game.

Notable quote (paraphrased): “There are probably four ‘no-question’ billion-dollar movies this year, and then a few more that could break into that club depending on execution and timing.”

Produced picks recap (compact)

  • Lucas Shaw: Spider-Man; Super Mario; The Odyssey (Nolan); Mandalorian; Dune; Jumanji 3; Devil Wears Prada 2. Bomb: Masters of the Universe.
  • Matt Belloni: Toy Story 5; Avengers: Doomsday; Minions 3; Moana (live action); Michael (Jackson biopic); Disclosure Day (Spielberg); Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping. Bomb: The Bride.