Sundance ’26 Bidding Wars and ‘Melania’ Box Office Prospects

Summary of Sundance ’26 Bidding Wars and ‘Melania’ Box Office Prospects

by The Ringer

32m•January 26, 2026
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Overview of The Town — Sundance ’26 Bidding Wars and ‘Melania’ Box Office Prospects

This episode of The Town (The Ringer) broadcasts from Sundance 2026. Host Matt Bellamy interviews veteran dealmaker John Sloss (founder of Cinetic Media) about the current Sundance marketplace: who’s buying, how deals are structured, why all‑night bidding wars are mostly gone (but can still happen), and the continuing influence of streamers. The episode closes with a box‑office primer on the highly publicized Melania Trump documentary (released by Amazon), its unusual marketing push, and early weekend tracking.

Key topics discussed

  • State of the Sundance sales market in 2026 (buyers, sellers, and strategies).
  • Streamers vs. theatrical/all‑rights distributors: who pays more, who delivers visibility.
  • Why filmmakers often prioritize distributor strategy/marketing over highest bid.
  • How sellers create urgency and structure deals (windowing, marketing commitments, anti‑“dump” clauses).
  • Market evolution since the pandemic: recovery of theatrical/all‑rights buyers and emergence of new indie distributors.
  • Anecdotes from Sloss’s Sundance history (Weinstein-era stories, Precious marketing).
  • Early tracking and P&A context for the Melania Trump documentary and how politics/geography may shape its opening.

Main takeaways

  • Streamers still have the biggest checkbooks (Netflix remains the “cockiest” buyer), and when they want a title they will often pay what’s needed. That can mean a sizable premium over theatrical offers—sometimes much more than a simple percentage premium.
  • Theatrical/all‑rights acquisitions have rebounded since the pandemic because new distributors have emerged and theatrical attendance is recovering. That makes festival-scripted films more sellable to traditional distributors than they were a few years ago.
  • Filmmaker priorities are often nuanced: marketing strategy, distributor understanding of the film, awards strategy and long‑term handling can trump the top dollar right out of the gate.
  • Classic all‑night auction fever is rarer now (buyers elongate the process to see everything and cool the heat), but targeted, condensed competitive runs still occur—this year’s Olivia Wilde film (The Invite) triggered at least one intense short auction.
  • Documentaries remain strong at Sundance; all five Oscar‑nominated docs this year were Sundance films, and docs often translate well to streamer models.
  • Visibility on a big streamer can dwarf a modest theatrical gross: some films get the equivalent eyeballs of a much larger theatrical hit via streaming and awards exposure.

Notable quotes / insights

  • "You birth these films... you put your life into them, and then you hand them off to someone who is just sort of grabbing them for the first time." — on why filmmakers care who buys their film.
  • "Netflix is still the cockiest buyer." — shorthand for streamers’ financial muscle and deal flexibility.
  • Sellers increasingly ask buyers to "sell themselves" with marketing plans at Sundance; selling the vision is often as important as selling the price.
  • Sloss: auctions are strategic and nuanced — “we don’t lie” — but sellers must create market perception and urgency without being unethical.

Sundance market mechanics and tactics

  • Create a market or the perception of one: multiple interested parties increase leverage.
  • Priorities checklist for filmmakers: money, theatrical platform, marketing commitment, awards strategy, release timing/avoidance of being “dumped.”
  • Contract tools: release blackout periods (no releases within X weeks of another title), marketing commitments, territorial/all‑rights vs. license deals.
  • Selling tactics: structured pitches where buyers present marketing plans; sometimes staged windows/rooms to create competition; elongation by buyers is common to reduce seller leverage.
  • Antitrust and information-sharing: buyers do network amongst themselves, but overt collusion is avoided; sellers try to be transparent and professional.

Who’s buying / players to watch

  • Netflix: biggest checkbook; continues to be aggressive on titles they value.
  • Apple, Amazon: major players with pockets to compete; Apple more diversified, Amazon active and willing to spend on P&A.
  • New indie distributors and boutique arms (examples mentioned: Roque; Warner Bros. reported new indie group) are reentering the market and buying 2–3 prestige films a year.
  • A24: pressured to scale toward larger, more commercial films given high valuations; still an influential indie tastemaker.
  • Sellers are watching how each buyer will market, award‑position and exploit global windows.

Anecdotes & festival history highlights

  • Sloss traces market changes back to the late ’80s/early ’90s and credits the Weinstein era with turning Sundance into a commercial awards pipeline.
  • Story about Precious: Tyler Perry and Oprah helped crack how to market it after festival awards; Sloss recounts a late‑night Harvey Weinstein confrontation in Las Vegas during that sale.
  • Little Miss Sunshine and Precious are cited as examples of Sundance films that became major theatrical successes.

Melania (Melania Trump documentary) — box office and release notes

  • Marketing: Amazon is reportedly spending a high six‑figure to multi‑million P&A; the episode cites roughly $35M in P&A spend behind the release (big for a documentary).
  • Early tracking: NRG tracking estimated around a $5M opening weekend for the documentary — high for a non‑concert doc and potentially the biggest non‑concert doc opening since COVID if realized.
  • Audience split: pre‑sales appear politically polarized — stronger sales in red counties/markets, weaker in blue ones; trailer was booed in some blue‑leaning cities.
  • Critics: Amazon did not screen the film widely for critics before release; reviews/assessments will be limited until after the premiere.
  • Extra context: Brett Ratner had access/role in production; the film documents 20 days preparing for the 2025 inauguration and is being promoted heavily by Trump and allies, creating a high‑profile, controversial launch.
  • Bottom line: results are uncertain and depend heavily on marketing muscle, political turnout, and the concentrated ad buy.

Recommendations / what to watch next

  • Industry watchers: monitor where The Invite lands—it’s a litmus test for whether competitive short auctions return in force.
  • Filmmakers: weigh distributor vision/marketing and award strategy against raw upfront money; ask potential buyers to present concrete marketing plans at Sundance.
  • General listeners: follow the Melania doc’s Thursday premiere for critical reaction, then check early box office reports to see whether polarized turnout drives a big weekend.
  • Pay attention to new indie groups (Warner’s indie arm, Roque and others) to see if they materially change acquisition dynamics.

TL;DR

  • Streamers still dominate on price and can buy what they want; theatrical/all‑rights buyers are making a comeback as new distributors and audiences return to theaters.
  • Sellers now emphasize marketing vision and release strategy as much as money; all‑night auction drama is rarer but not dead.
  • Sundance remains a key discovery marketplace for docs and prestige scripted films.
  • The Melania documentary is an outlier documentary release with heavy P&A spending and polarized pre‑sales; early tracking (~$5M) makes it a notable weekend to watch, but results remain uncertain until after the premiere.