Overview of Oscars Preview! Timmy Trouble, a ‘Sinners’ Surge, and a Big Lead for 'One Battle' (The Town)
This episode of The Town (The Ringer) — hosted by Matt Bellany with Craig — features Hollywood insider Michael Lasker (talent manager and longtime Oscar watcher). They break down the major Academy Award narratives heading into Oscar Sunday: the Best Actor scramble around Timothée Chalamet vs. Michael B. Jordan vs. others, the two-film showdown between One Battle and Sinners, voting dynamics and portal changes, category-level bellwethers, and a short industry aside about the Jeff Shell/Paramount controversy. The conversation mixes historical context, voting instincts from LA-based voters, and targeted predictions for how the night might unfold.
Key takeaways
- One Battle vs. Sinners is the central contest of the season; the two films overlap in a record 11 categories.
- Michael Lasker believes One Battle is the frontrunner for Best Picture and will likely win a majority of its predicted categories; Sinners has momentum but may split the vote.
- Best Actor is wide open; Lasker favors Michael B. Jordan over Timothée Chalamet given voting tendencies and the “vote the picture” effect.
- Editing and early supporting wins will be key bellwethers — they may indicate whether the night goes One Battle or Sinners.
- New Academy portal rules (voters confirming they’ve viewed nominees) appear to have reduced casual voting; Lasker thinks most Academy members still vote seriously and that the change is unlikely to produce a shock upset.
Narrative breakdowns
Timothée Chalamet and the “phenom” pattern
- Lasker disputes the idea Chalamet “blew” his chances by offhand criticism of ballet/opera — voting was already over when the controversy circulated.
- Historical pattern: explosive young male actors often take time to win (Dustin Hoffman, Al Pacino, Leonardo DiCaprio). Lasker groups Chalamet with these “phenom” careers, suggesting a win might be delayed rather than immediate.
- Category is crowded: votes for Ethan Hawke, Wagner Moura, Michael B. Jordan, Leo DiCaprio are all plausible.
Michael B. Jordan case
- Momentum from SAG and other precursors helped Michael B., and Lasker argues his performance is doubled (two characters), which can be persuasive to voters.
- Public betting markets and industry odds diverge: public sentiment (Kalshi, social chatter) sometimes favors different outcomes than Vegas-style books.
One Battle vs. Sinners (Best Picture primacy)
- Lasker’s working split: One Battle 6 wins (Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Editing, Cinematography); Sinners 4 wins (Actor, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Casting).
- Historical context: most-nominated film does not always win Best Picture — only 10 of 25 Best Picture winners (2000–2025) were the most-nominated film that year.
- Editing and a supporting acting win early in the telecast could signal the night’s direction (echoes the Traffic/Gladiator split night example).
Voting mechanics & Academy behavior
- The portal requires voters to indicate they watched nominees; Lasker reports many members are taking the honor system seriously and some abstain if they haven’t seen enough.
- Precursors (SAG, critics) are imperfect predictors: SAG has many members and can reflect different tastes than the smaller Academy branches (e.g., SAG picked Sinners but that’s not determinative).
- Lasker thinks the tendency to “vote the movie down the line” (i.e., voters giving multiple awards to one film) favors One Battle, which has strong cross-branch support.
Categories and picks to watch (Michael Lasker’s lean)
- Best Picture: One Battle
- Best Director: PTA (One Battle)
- Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan (edge over Chalamet)
- Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn (One Battle)
- Best Supporting Actress: close — Tiana vs. Amy Madigan mentioned as contenders
- Best Original Score: Ludwig Göransson (Sinners)
- Casting: likely Sinners (innovative casting credit)
- Editing: key bellwether (if won by One Battle → confirms its momentum; if won by Sinners → signals a swing)
- Best Actress: Jesse Buckley (Hamnet) treated as a likely/“shoo-in” in the epilogue
- Sound upset to watch: Surratt (a film with complex sound design) could surprise in sound categories despite F1/av-style expectations
Shocks and possible surprise outcomes Lasker flags
- Surratt (sound) could upset expected winners in sound categories because of an intricate soundscape.
- A split early in the night (supporting or editing) could flip momentum toward Sinners — past Oscars have had similar divided outcomes (Traffic vs. Gladiator example).
- Lasker emphasizes that while surprises are possible, the race really boils down to One Battle and Sinners — most other films are expected only to pick up one or two awards.
Industry aside — Jeff Shell and Paramount
- Discussion of a separate story: Jeff Shell (Paramount President) is being sued by R.J. Cipriani, who alleges Shell revealed company deals (South Park, UFC) and made promises tied to projects; Paramount is investigating.
- Lasker’s read: Shell likely won’t survive the fallout at a public company level given past controversies and internal resistance; if he departs his next role is probably outside public-company leadership.
Notable insights / quotes (paraphrased)
- “When there’s a young male phenom, sometimes the Academy makes you wait.” — on Chalamet’s trajectory.
- “Editing will be a bellwether — if One Battle loses editing, the night could flip to Sinners.” — on how to read the telecast early on.
- “The people who vote take it seriously; many are actually watching the films and shorts.” — on portal-driven viewing compliance.
Quick action items for viewers (what to watch on Sunday)
- Pay attention to the early awards (editing, supporting categories) — they’ll indicate which film is running the night.
- Watch actor wins in context to the Best Picture pick (voters sometimes split actor and picture to spread recognition).
- Expect One Battle vs. Sinners to dominate the telecast; other wins will likely be single-category trophies (sound, visual effects, actress wins, etc.).
Closing
Michael Lasker presents a data-informed, inside-the-town read: One Battle is favored to win Best Picture and carry a plurality of the major awards, but Sinners has strong cross-branch support and could flip the night if it wins key early categories. Best Actor remains the most open and entertaining race to watch, with Michael B. Jordan positioned as Lasker’s pick over Chalamet. The episode is equal parts prognostication and tactical advice for interpreting Oscar-night momentum.