Oscar Noms ‘26! Five Big Takeaways and Industry Narratives.

Summary of Oscar Noms ‘26! Five Big Takeaways and Industry Narratives.

by The Ringer

38m•January 22, 2026
Listen to Episode

Overview of The Town — "Oscar Noms ‘26! Five Big Takeaways and Industry Narratives"

This episode (Jan 22, 2026) of The Town (host Matt Bellany) features NYT awards columnist Kyle Buchanan analyzing the 2026 Oscar nominations. They run through five big industry narratives revealed by the ballots, notable nominations and snubs, and what the results mean for the rest of awards season — especially for studio strategy, box office influence, and voting blocs inside the Academy.

Five big takeaways / industry narratives

  • Warner Bros: a rare studio flex

    • Two Warner films (referred to in the episode as Sinners and One Battle After Another) dominated the nominations, together accounting for a massive haul. That’s an uncommon scenario today and presents internal campaign challenges for Warners (how to divvy resources, appease filmmakers, etc.).
    • This comes amid corporate drama — Warners’ sale/ownership fight (Netflix vs. Paramount) — which adds a layer of industry context to the noms.

  • Box office still matters (when the film connects)

    • A mainstream hit (Sinners in the episode’s terms) proved that commercial success can help push a film into Best Picture contention — echoing recent examples where box-office resonance bolstered awards campaigns.
    • Not all nominated studio films were blockbusters or profitable, but strong theatrical traction helps visibility and voter familiarity.

  • The “young actor” dynamic and age bias

    • Timothée Chalamet emerged as the likely frontrunner for Best Actor (with Leo and Michael B. Jordan also discussed). The show wrestles with the Academy’s historical reluctance to give Best Actor to very young men — a pattern that can complicate campaigns for actors under ~30.
    • The conversation highlights how the Oscars try to court younger audiences by nominating younger stars, but older voters can still default to alternatives.

  • The “dad contingent” / older voter patterns

    • Certain crowd-pleasing, star-driven films (F1 was a debated Best Picture nominee in the episode) and familiar performers (Kate Hudson’s surprising nomination) reflect residual influence from older Academy voters — sometimes called the “dad” vote.
    • These selections can frustrate online critics but signal that the Academy still includes constituencies that favor accessible, crowd-pleasing fare.

  • Cannes → Oscar pipeline (and limits)

    • The internationalization of the Academy has made Cannes a major launch pad for Oscar contenders. Several Cannes titles were nominated, but some Palme d’Or winners and Iranian films were still overlooked for Best Picture/Director — suggesting limits to the “festival-to-Oscar” automatic path.
    • The panel also flagged a mismatch between international recognition and actor/guild voting (e.g., SAG nom committees under-indexing foreign-language performances).

Notable nominations, snubs, and surprises called out

  • Standouts

    • Sinners: record-breaking nominations (16) and now squarely in Best Picture conversation.
    • Strong Warner showing: multiple films with big tallies; one of the studio’s biggest awards-season victories in years.
    • Focus Features: three Best Actress nominees (rare for a specialty division).

  • Snubs / surprises

    • Guillermo del Toro — no directing nomination (surprising given his awards-season presence).
    • Jafar Panahi’s Palme-winning film (referred to as a surprise Palme winner) was largely snubbed for Best Picture/Director despite festival pedigree.
    • Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach–linked title in the episode) expected as an early contender but received no major Oscar nods.
    • Odessa Zion (supporting work in Marty Supreme) not nominated — noted as a personal snub by the hosts.
    • Wicked and several franchise/gigantic crowd-pleasers received mixed responses; some expected nominees were left out.
    • Paramount: zero nominations (called out as notable).

  • Guild/awards mismatch

    • SAG and other guilds’ nominating processes sometimes lag behind the Oscars in international/diverse picks — part of why certain foreign performances didn’t appear in actor lists.

(Transcript titles were used as discussed on the episode; some names may be shorthand or working titles from that conversation.)

Key implications — what this means for the race and the industry

  • Campaign strategy will be fascinating to watch

    • Studios with multiple contenders (esp. Warner) face tricky choices on resource allocation and differentiating films that compete for the same voters.
    • Phase Two campaigns will try to draw contrasts — but likely avoid overt negativity.

  • Box office + visibility = more influence

    • A mid‑budget film that breaks through theatrically can become a true contender; studios will continue to value theatrical traction as part of awards strategy.

  • The Academy is coalescing, but not uniformly

    • Fewer release windows, strikes, festival timing, and a larger international membership mean nominations can concentrate around a smaller cluster of films voters actually see.
    • Expect more campaigns focused on voter education/visibility (screenings, Q&As, personal outreach).

  • International race: still tied to Best Picture

    • Historically, the Best International/International Feature winner often overlaps with a Best Picture nominee. If that trend holds, the international Oscar is likelier to go to the foreign-language film that also made Best Picture (the episode mentions Sentimental Value vs. Secret Agent as examples).

Quick quotes & notable lines (paraphrased)

  • “If there were ever going to be any sort of competition, Sinners just showed it can compete.”
  • “Only one man under 30 has ever won Best Actor; young male winners are historically rare.”
  • On studio dynamics: “This could be a preview of future awards seasons when there are fewer studios — the big owners will hoover up nominations.”

What to watch next (practical checklist)

  • Follow Phase 2 campaigns from Warner — will they split resources or back one film as the lead?
  • Monitor box-office trends for the top contenders (Sinners and its rival) and audience metrics.
  • Watch guild awards (SAG, PGA, DGA) for momentum shifts — SAG & PGA patterns are often predictive.
  • Track international film viewership and late-season screenings (recency can matter).
  • Keep an eye on Best Actor campaigning — Timothée Chalamet vs. Leo vs. other veteran alternatives.

Bottom line

The 2026 Oscar nominations revealed a studio-driven, somewhat consolidated awards season where box-office hits and franchise-quality studio films can still break through — even amid corporate upheaval and industry consolidation. Expect a head-to-head, highly strategic Phase 2 as studios balance competing films, court different voter blocs, and leverage box-office narratives to push their contenders across the finish line.