Overview of Actors vs. Studios, and the Existential AI War, With SAG‑AFTRA Lead Negotiator
This episode of The Town features Duncan Crabtree‑Ireland, SAG‑AFTRA’s national executive director and lead negotiator, in a wide‑ranging conversation about the union’s recent wins on AI, priorities for the upcoming contract negotiation (actors begin bargaining Feb 9; deadline June 30), and broader industry threats and opportunities—from synthetic performers and deepfakes to the Warner Bros. sale and streaming/theatrical windows.
Participants
- Host: Matt Bellamy (The Ringer / Puck)
- Guest: Duncan Crabtree‑Ireland, SAG‑AFTRA national executive director and lead negotiator
- Context: Conversation recorded at CES; snippets and ads from sponsors included in the episode
Key topics covered
- What SAG‑AFTRA achieved in the 2023 negotiations on AI and performer protections
- Specifics and limits of the “16 pages” of AI rules for performers
- Synthetic performances (the “non‑person” / synthetic influencer controversy)
- Monitoring of studio AI work (six‑month confidential briefings)
- Deepfake porn and Grok/Twitter-related harms and legal exposure
- Strategy and aims for the upcoming SAG‑AFTRA contract negotiation
- Warner Bros. sale (Netflix vs. Paramount) and theatrical windows
- Whether the actors’ movement is playing “defense” or “offense” relative to global AI content creators
- Interaction with large AI companies (OpenAI, Sora, Cameo feature)
- Industry priorities: compensation, work volume, jobs staying in the U.S., health insurance, and incentives
Main takeaways
- 2023 wins on AI: SAG‑AFTRA negotiated a detailed set of rules (about 16 pages) governing how AI can be used with performers—covering digital replicas, consent, compensation, and periodic company briefings. Those rules have meaningfully slowed or shaped studios’ AI implementation.
- Digital replication: Allowed in narrow, consented contexts (e.g., scheduling/reshoots, minor fixes). SAG‑AFTRA insists on permission and compensation for using a performer’s likeness/voice.
- Synthetic performers: Current contract requires studio notice and bargaining if a company creates a synthetic performance that approximates a human performer, but Crabtree‑Ireland wants stronger, more prescriptive guardrails here.
- Economic lever: SAG‑AFTRA is pushing for rules that remove the cost advantage of synthetic content—e.g., require synthetic tracks or voices to pay comparable royalties/compensation—so companies won’t automatically choose cheaper synthetic outputs over humans.
- Distinction between humans and AI: The union is focused on preserving a clear line between humans and algorithmic outputs (and on preventing anthropomorphized AI from being treated as people).
- Industry monitoring and leverage: The union uses confidential six‑month check‑ins with companies to learn and influence AI deployments; studios are cautious (bringing legal/business teams to AI meetings).
- Deepfake harms: Mainstream AI tools like Grok enabling explicit deepfakes are particularly worrisome. Crabtree‑Ireland suggests potential legal exposure for companies that host or enable such content, noting evolving laws (e.g., New York’s labeling law).
- Negotiation posture: SAG‑AFTRA aims to be cooperative to avoid another strike but will not accept an unfair deal; a strike remains possible. Bargaining starts earlier than last time to give time to address complex categories.
- Jobs and U.S. production: The union supports federal/state incentives to keep more production in the U.S. and wants to rebalance the distribution of work (more steady jobs, better benefits and protections).
- Studio consolidation and windows: The Warner Bros. sale is being watched closely; Crabtree‑Ireland is skeptical about long‑term theatrical windows under streaming owners despite verbal commitments and sees value in protecting theatrical release windows.
Notable quotes / insights
- “There has never been a moment in time where any force can completely stop the advance of technology… So we made a very conscious strategic decision: we aren't going to be able to stop AI… but we can channel the way that it's implemented.”
- “It is really important to maintain the distinction between humans and AI algorithmic models.”
- On synthetic figures: companies must notify the union if they create synthetic performances resembling a person; as of the interview, no company had given that notice.
- On synthetic economics: “If synthetics cost the same thing that a human costs, they're going to choose a human every time.”
- On negotiation timing: starting Feb 9 (actors) to allow more time for a complex bargaining process—deadline June 30.
What a “win” looks like for SAG‑AFTRA
(High‑level — negotiator declined to reveal numbers)
- Sustainable compensation and better residual/streaming rules so members can survive hiatuses
- Stronger, enforceable rules on synthetic performances (beyond notification and bargaining)
- Parity mechanisms so synthetics do not gain a cost/royalty advantage over human performers
- Improvements to exclusivity, health insurance, and more steady job opportunities
- Protections that encourage production to remain in the U.S. (federal/state incentives)
Red flags and things to watch
- Whether studios expand AI use beyond constrained replication (e.g., unconsented synthetic performers)
- Legal and regulatory developments (state laws like NY’s labeling requirement; federal proposals)
- Grok and mainstream tools enabling deepfake porn—potential litigation or legislative action
- How the Warner Bros. sale unfolds: buyer, structure (cash vs. stock), and implications for theatrical windows
- OpenAI and other AI firms’ future product launches (Sora, AI‑backed films like “Critters”) and licensing deals with studios
- Whether synthetic content becomes cheaper and more commercially attractive than human‑led productions
Recommended follow‑ups to monitor (for readers)
- SAG‑AFTRA negotiation start (Feb 9) and major bargaining milestones
- Any new, more detailed contract language on synthetic performers
- OpenAI / Sora / studio deals and their Cameo/licensing mechanisms
- Legislative or regulatory actions on AI labeling, deepfakes, and platform liability
- Outcome of the Warner Bros. bidding process and any commitments about theatrical windows
Bottom line
SAG‑AFTRA’s strategy is pragmatic: acknowledge AI is unavoidable, use bargaining power and policy to shape its deployment, and prioritize performer consent, compensation, and a clear human/AI distinction. The union enters the next negotiation aiming to build on 2023 gains—especially tightening rules on synthetic performances and economic parity—and to protect jobs, benefits, and theatrical exhibition while trying to avoid a disruptive strike.