Overview of The Town’s Summer Box Office Accountability Episode
Matt Belloni and Scott Mendelson revisit their preseason “confidence scale” picks for the summer’s biggest movies and grade how well they predicted theatrical performance. The big picture: summer 2026 was strong for theaters overall, even with several high-profile studio flops, and the episode uses that backdrop to assess which franchises, remakes, and originals actually connected with audiences.
Box Office Context: A Surprisingly Healthy Summer
- Domestic summer box office finished 9.4% above the pre-pandemic average and 26.6% above last year.
- Year-to-date domestic grosses are now only 7.2% below pre-pandemic levels and up more than 20% vs. last year.
- Attendance was also up significantly, with 323 million tickets sold for the summer period cited.
- The hosts emphasize a key theme: theaters can still benefit from studio flops, because even disappointing titles can generate meaningful revenue at the box office.
The Confidence Scale Results
Movie-by-Movie Accountability
| Movie | Belloni | Mendelson | Outcome | Who “Won” |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Devil Wears Prada 2 | 10 | 12 | Huge hit, far exceeded expectations | Scott |
| Mortal Kombat 2 | 7 | 4 | Underperformed, especially overseas | Scott |
| Mandalorian and Grogu | 3 | 7 | Lowest-grossing Star Wars film ever | Matt |
| Masters of the Universe | 1 | 1 | Clear flop | Tie |
| Scary Movie 6 | 11 | 11 | Solid hit / met expectations | Tie |
| Spielberg’s original Emily Blunt tentpole (“Disclosure Day” in transcript) | 4 | 3 | Fell short of lofty goals | Scott |
| Toy Story 5 | 13 | 10 | Big hit, but not an Inside Out 2-level explosion | Scott |
| Supergirl | 2 | 5 | Big bomb | Matt |
| Minions and Monsters | 8 | 13 | Disappointing relative to franchise history | Matt |
| Moana | 5 | 6 | Underwhelmed vs. budget/expectations | Matt |
| The Odyssey | 9 | 8 | Massive breakout, far beyond expectations | Matt |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 12 | 9 | Enormous hit, still climbing | Matt |
| Warner Bros.’ original 2026 drama (“The End of Oak Street”) | 6 | 2 | Underperformed for its budget | Matt |
Final Score
- Matt Belloni: 6
- Scott Mendelson: 5
- Ties: 2
Craig also added a separate “big wins” metric:
- Matt’s biggest wins: Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Mandalorian and Grogu, Minions and Monsters
- Scott’s biggest wins: The Devil Wears Prada 2, Mortal Kombat 2
Key Takeaways From the Discussion
1. Nostalgia only works when the franchise still feels eventful
- The Devil Wears Prada 2 succeeded thanks to star power, legacy appeal, and broad audience familiarity.
- Toy Story 5 and Spider-Man: Brand New Day also showed that familiar brands can still break out, but only when they feel like real events, not just routine sequels.
2. “Just more of the same” is a box office risk
- Mandalorian and Grogu and Moana were criticized for feeling too much like expanded versions of existing content rather than true cinematic reinventions.
- The hosts repeatedly stress that TV-to-film adaptations need to evolve the characters and stakes, not just upscale the format.
3. Timing matters for franchise fatigue
- Minions and Monsters underperformed relative to previous Minions movies, suggesting the franchise may be less dominant now and possibly released too soon after the last installment.
- Still, the film remained profitable, reinforcing how much cushion these giant animated brands have.
4. High-budget originals still need a clear event hook
- The Spielberg original underperformed because big marketing and a legendary director are not enough on their own anymore.
- The episode suggests Spielberg is still respected, but not automatically a summer box office guarantee for original ideas.
5. Low- and mid-budget branded films remain the studio sweet spot
- Scary Movie 6 is held up as the kind of movie studios like Paramount can reliably make work: pre-branded, not overexpensive, and theatrically viable.
- The hosts contrast that with bigger, riskier bets that need much stronger upside to justify their budgets.
6. IMAX and eventization still matter
- The Odyssey became a monster hit because it was hyper-eventized, especially through IMAX and premium-format positioning.
- Nolan’s film is presented as proof that audiences still show up for original spectacle when the package feels special enough.
Final Thoughts
The episode’s big conclusion is optimistic: the theatrical market is healthier than many expected, even if studios are still taking losses on some major bets. The real winners are the movies that either:
- feel like true events,
- offer a fresh take on familiar IP,
- or combine brand recognition with a strong enough reason to leave home.
If you want, I can also turn this into a shorter bullet summary or a clean one-page table of all 13 movies and their results.