The 2026 Summer Blockbuster Confidence Ranking

Summary of The 2026 Summer Blockbuster Confidence Ranking

by The Ringer

41m•April 30, 2026
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Overview of The Town’s Summer Blockbuster Confidence Ranking

In this recurring The Town episode, Matt Belloni and box-office analyst Scott Mendelsohn run through the studio movies positioned to define the 2026 summer box office and rank them by how confident they are that each will outperform expectations. The conversation mixes pure commercial forecasting with franchise history, budget realities, audience nostalgia, and a healthy amount of skepticism about which IP still has real theatrical heat.

Key Takeaways

  • Franchise nostalgia dominates the summer slate. Disney, Warner Bros., and others are leaning hard on legacy brands like Toy Story, Minions, Spider-Man, Moana, Mandalorian, and Devil Wears Prada.
  • The biggest debate is not whether movies will be successful, but by how much. Several titles are viewed as solid bets that may still get “low” confidence scores simply because the show only allows one movie per ranking slot.
  • Animation and family films look especially strong. Toy Story 5 and the new Minions film are treated as massive upside candidates.
  • The most fragile bets are the ones that rely on old IP without clear current relevance. That’s especially true for Masters of the Universe and, to a lesser extent, Supergirl and the live-action Moana remake.
  • Late-summer and original titles remain wild cards. Nolan’s The Odyssey and the Anne Hathaway horror project could become hits, but they also carry the most uncertainty.

Summer Movie Confidence Rankings

Highest-confidence titles

  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day

    • Both hosts see this as one of the biggest movies of the year, with Scott especially bullish.
    • Even without a massive “event” hook yet, Spider-Man’s brand, the cast, and late-summer positioning give it enormous upside.

  • Toy Story 5

    • Matt is extremely confident this will explode; Scott is also very high on it.
    • The expectation is that Pixar can turn family nostalgia into another billion-dollar-level hit.

  • The new Minions / Despicable Me movie

    • Scott is incredibly confident in this franchise’s consistency.
    • Matt is a bit less bullish, but still sees it as a very safe bet.
    • The franchise’s track record of near-identical massive global totals makes it one of the summer’s most reliable properties.

  • The Devil Wears Prada 2

    • Strong nostalgia play with a highly marketable cast and built-in audience.
    • Early reviews weren’t great, but that didn’t shake confidence much because the studio appears to be treating it like a true event sequel.

Strong, but with real questions

  • The Odyssey

    • Nolan’s name carries major weight, but the hosts worry expectations may be so high that a very good result could still be framed as a disappointment.
    • The film has major upside if it lands with audiences, especially given the cast and spectacle.

  • Mandalorian and Grogu

    • Scott is more optimistic than Matt.
    • The big question is whether audiences treat it as an actual theatrical Star Wars event, rather than a TV spinoff on the big screen.

  • Live-action Moana

    • Viewed as solid, but likely not as explosive as Disney’s biggest live-action remakes.
    • The proximity to the animated original and sequel may reduce the “nostalgia premium.”

  • Mortal Kombat 2

    • A moderate-confidence sequel: the first film found a real audience on streaming, but this still does not feel like a giant theatrical breakout.

  • Supergirl

    • Scott is a bit more positive than Matt, but both are cautious.
    • The movie may do fine, especially if it’s cheaper and better received than expected, but neither host sees it as a slam dunk.

Lower-confidence / biggest risk movies

  • Masters of the Universe

    • Considered the biggest risk on the slate.
    • The core concern is simple: the IP may not mean much to younger audiences, and nostalgia alone may not be enough to make it a major theatrical event.

  • The end-of-summer Anne Hathaway horror film

    • Matt is more hopeful than Scott.
    • Scott thinks it has potential to be a surprise, but not enough confidence to place it in the top tier.

  • Scary Movie 6

    • Scott’s sleeper pick.
    • He sees strong generational nostalgia and low-budget profit potential, especially if the marketing lands with the right audience.

Biggest Areas of Disagreement

Minions and Supergirl

  • The hosts differ most on the new Minions movie and Supergirl.
  • Scott is notably more confident in the Minions franchise’s ability to keep overperforming.
  • Scott is also somewhat more optimistic about Supergirl than Matt.

The “too many safe bets” problem

  • The ranking game is partly about forcing differentiation: several movies are expected to do well, but only one can occupy each confidence slot.
  • That’s why some clearly successful movies still end up with relatively low numbers.

Wild Cards

Matt Belloni’s pick: Sheep Detectives

  • Matt thinks this could be a family-friendly breakout with “Babe”-style charm.
  • He’s worried Amazon may not know how to market it, but he sees clear sleeper potential.

Scott Mendelsohn’s pick: The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act

  • Scott’s wild card is a theatrical release tied to a huge YouTube animated series fandom.
  • He thinks strong pre-sales and fan enthusiasm could make it a surprising theatrical performer, even against more traditional studio releases.

Bottom Line

The hosts see the summer as cautiously optimistic but highly franchise-driven. The most dependable bets are the legacy animated brands and Spider-Man; the biggest swing-for-the-fence titles are Nolan’s The Odyssey and the new Mandalorian film; and the weakest-looking bet is Masters of the Universe. The episode closes with the sense that the summer could produce several huge wins — and at least a few headline-making disappointments.