Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios in the Western Conference | Real Ones

Summary of Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios in the Western Conference | Real Ones

by The Ringer

1h 23m•October 1, 2026
Listen to Episode

Overview of Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios in the Western Conference | Real Ones

Logan Murdoch, Tyler Parker, and Howard Beck run through the Western Conference team by team, laying out each club’s ceiling, floor, and the most likely range of outcomes. The through line is clear: the West is still loaded at the top, but a lot of teams have major questions around health, shooting, defense, chemistry, and front-office direction. The hosts repeatedly return to the idea that a few stars — Nikola Jokić, Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama, Luka Dončić, and Kevin Durant — can cover up a lot, but not everything.

Note: a few roster details in the transcript appear garbled, so this summary follows the conversation’s intent rather than every misheard name.

Key Takeaways

  • The West has a few true contenders, but also a huge middle class of teams whose best case is often just “avoid disaster and make the playoffs.”
  • Health is the biggest swing factor for several teams, especially Denver, Oklahoma City, the Lakers, the Rockets, and the Clippers.
  • Shooting and perimeter creation are recurring concerns, especially for Denver, Golden State, and the Lakers.
  • Organizational vibes matter: the Clippers, Pelicans, Kings, and even the Warriors are discussed as teams where ownership/front-office instability affects the basketball.
  • The hosts believe the conference is top-heavy and volatile, with a steep drop-off after the top tier.

Team-by-Team Outlook

Denver Nuggets

  • Best case: Western Conference Finals, with a small outside chance to reach the NBA Finals if Jokić goes nuclear and Aaron Gordon stays healthy.
  • Worst case: Injuries to Gordon and/or Jamal Murray, poor perimeter athleticism, and complacency drag them down to a mid-seed or even a first-round exit. The ultimate nightmare is Jokić looking around and wondering what he’s still doing there.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Best case: A top-six seed, maybe even a conference finals-level push if Anthony Edwards keeps ascending and the talent clicks.
  • Worst case: The LaMelo Ball fit fails defensively and emotionally, the backcourt becomes combustible, and the experiment ends with the beginning and end of Edwards’ Minnesota run.
  • The hosts love the watchability, but not the defensive fit or the turnover risk.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Best case: Championship.
  • Worst case: Jalen Williams struggles to return fully from injury, Chet Holmgren doesn’t fully bounce back from the playoff trauma vs. Wembanyama, and they lose another high-stakes series to San Antonio.
  • The Thunder are framed as one of the two clear powers in the West.

Portland Trail Blazers / Ja Morant Scenario

  • Best case: Ja Morant shows real growth and contrition, Dame helps stabilize the room, and the team sneaks into the play-in or even the 6-seed range.
  • Worst case: Morant remains defiant, the fit never works, Dame doesn’t fully return from injury, and the franchise falls back into chaos.
  • The hosts strongly suggest the move was more owner-driven than basketball-driven.

Utah Jazz

  • Best case: A surprise 6-seed run built on offense, youth, and the growth of Darryn Peterson, Keontae George, Lauri Markkanen, and Jaren Jackson Jr.
  • Worst case: They’re still too unproven, lack enough rebounding/rim protection after moving off Walker Kessler, and settle into the play-in or lower.
  • This is treated as one of the most fun young teams, but also one of the hardest to project.

Golden State Warriors

  • Best case: They stay healthy, Jimmy Butler returns in time to stabilize things, and they sneak into the playoffs as a respectable 6- to 10-seed type team.
  • Worst case: Injuries pile up, Steph Curry carries too much, Butler doesn’t return in time, and the season collapses into sadness.
  • The big concern is that they did too little this offseason and are betting on one last version of the old core.

Los Angeles Clippers

  • Best case: If everything somehow breaks right, they can remain competitive and push toward the play-in/playoff picture.
  • Worst case: The organization’s off-court scandal, uncertainty around Kawhi Leonard, injuries, and general bad vibes drag them into a lost season.
  • The discussion emphasizes that the damage isn’t just basketball-related; it also affects fans and the whole organization.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Best case: 50+ wins and a Western Conference Finals run if Luka Dončić stays healthy and the supporting cast fits.
  • Worst case: Too much is placed on Luka and Austin Reaves, shooting remains shaky, and they get exposed by more athletic Western teams in the playoffs.
  • The hosts are bullish on Luka’s ability to drag a team far, especially if the bracket breaks right.

Phoenix Suns

  • Best case: A low playoff seed, maybe a 7 or 8, but likely still a first-round loss.
  • Worst case: The fit collapses, the ball-dominant scorers overlap too much, and the season spirals into a Devin Booker trade-demand conversation.
  • The roster is described as full of talent but badly mismatched.

Sacramento Kings

  • Best case: At least they have a few young names to watch and something to build around.
  • Worst case: They’re the worst team in the West, maybe the worst team in the league.
  • Ben Simmons is framed as a low-stakes flyer, not a real solution. The bigger problem is ownership and direction.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Best case: Cooper Flagg takes a leap, Kyrie Irving looks good enough to be flipped later, and the team keeps building around youth.
  • Worst case: Flagg gets hurt or stalls, and the franchise remains stuck between win-now and development.
  • The hosts see Dallas as being in a better long-term position than many realize, especially if they commit to Flagg’s timeline.

Houston Rockets

  • Best case: Amen Thompson makes the leap, Kevin Durant stays elite and sets the tone, Fred VanVleet organizes the offense, and Ime Udoka coaches them into the conference finals.
  • Worst case: Internal tension, bad vibes, and a lack of mental toughness derail the season from within.
  • There’s a lot of talent here, but also a lot of concern about whether the team can hold together in big moments.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Best case: Their young, rebuilt core surprises enough to reach the play-in or make a small noise.
  • Worst case: They remain a lottery team, which the hosts think the franchise is prepared to accept.
  • The key theme is that Memphis has a solid front office and an intriguing long-term reset.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Best case: Zion Williamson stays healthy, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones keep growing, and the team finally makes some sense.
  • Worst case: More bad vibes, poor fit, and another lost season in a cursed organizational environment.
  • The hosts are especially down on the franchise’s overall direction and ownership.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Best case: Championship, with Victor Wembanyama winning MVP, Finals MVP, and Defensive Player of the Year, while Dylan Harper becomes a star.
  • Worst case: They still make a deep playoff run and maybe only lose in the Finals.
  • The Spurs are treated as terrifyingly good — perhaps the most dangerous team in the conference.

Broader West Takeaways

The West Is Top-Heavy

The hosts argue that the Western Conference has a small group of elite teams, then a noticeable drop-off. The top tier is much clearer than the mess below it.

Health and Fit Decide Everything

Nearly every team discussed has a “if healthy” clause:

  • Nuggets: Gordon/Murray/Jokić health
  • Thunder: Jalen Williams/Chet bounce-backs
  • Lakers: Luka and the supporting cast
  • Rockets: KD, VanVleet, Adams, Sengun, and Amen staying aligned
  • Clippers and Warriors: obvious injury risk

Vibes Matter More Than Usual

Several teams are discussed as organizations where front-office decisions, ownership issues, or locker-room dynamics might matter almost as much as on-court talent.

Notable Lines / Ideas

  • “Jokic covers up a lot.”
    Denver’s floor is still relatively high because of Jokić, even if the roster around him looks thinner.

  • “The West has two certified powers.”
    The hosts repeatedly frame the conference as having a clear top group, then a big drop.

  • “Every team thinks they’re the one that can harness the upside.”
    This comes up especially in the discussions of LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant, and other high-variance stars.

Bottom Line

This episode is less about rigid standings predictions and more about how fragile or dangerous each Western Conference team could be depending on health, chemistry, and development. The hosts are especially high on the Thunder and Spurs, skeptical of the Nuggets’ depth, wary of the Clippers’ and Warriors’ vibes, and deeply unconvinced by the Suns, Kings, and Pelicans.