Overview of Group Chat from The Ringer
Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, J. Kyle Mann, and guest Dave Jacoby kick off a new NBA season with their annual “variables” episode, using it as a broad preseason forecast for the league. The conversation centers on how the NBA’s new tanking rules, the league’s deep crop of young talent, and the rising importance of depth could reshape the regular season. They also make early award picks, identify surprise teams and breakout players, and lock in their Finals predictions.
Key Themes and Takeaways
New tanking rules could change the regular season
- The hosts expect the league to feel more competitive for longer because fewer teams should fully punt the season.
- They think this could:
- reduce late-season blowouts,
- make March and April games matter more,
- increase the value of depth and player development,
- and make it harder for bad teams to “race to the bottom.”
- The downside they flag: a harder regular season could add wear-and-tear and lead to more stress injuries.
Depth and young talent may matter more than ever
- The group repeatedly returns to the idea that the NBA is moving toward a “young man’s league.”
- Teams with cheap, high-upside players on rookie contracts may have a real advantage under the new CBA.
- They see the best teams as the ones that can combine:
- one true star,
- strong depth,
- and enough youth to survive the season’s physical demands.
Surprise Teams and Season Forecasts
Teams they think could break through
- Houston Rockets: the clearest “surprise contender” pick for multiple hosts.
- The logic: better point guard play, improved depth, and less burden on Kevin Durant.
- They think Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams help stabilize the offense and make Durant’s life easier.
- Orlando Magic: viewed as a plausible “get right” team if healthy.
- The concern is health and whether this is just another season of “if they stay healthy.”
- Atlanta Hawks: discussed as deeper and more dangerous than the public may realize, but not quite the shock candidate some might expect.
- Golden State Warriors: one host predicts they’ll be much worse than expected, largely because the supporting cast looks thin and Steph Curry may need more maintenance.
Breakout-player candidates
- Jalen Williams: seen as a possible “monster season” candidate and a fringe top-15 player.
- Scoot Henderson: singled out for looking physically stronger and more mature.
- Brandan Miller: expected by multiple hosts to take a major step if he stays healthy.
- Amen Thompson: expected to benefit from having a real point guard and more structure.
- Baylor Scheierman / Jaden McDaniels: mentioned as possible leap candidates depending on role and usage.
Rookie of the Year and Young-Player Discussion
The rookie class drew a lot of attention
- The hosts are excited about a strong incoming class and the broader wave of young talent entering the league.
- Names that came up as key rookies/prospects:
- Caleb Wilson
- Cam Boozer
- VJ Edgecombe
- Collin Murray-Boyles
- Darius Acuff
- Tre Johnson
- Cooper Flagg (mentioned as part of the broader elite class)
- The recurring point: these players are arriving more prepared, more physically developed, and with more polished skill sets than previous rookie cohorts.
ROY race
- The main contenders discussed were Cam Boozer and Caleb Wilson.
- One host favored Boozer for his polish, efficiency, and central role.
- Another favored Wilson for his highlight-reel plays, opportunity, and the idea that he’ll pop on every box score and algorithm feed.
Award Picks
MVP conversation
- Victor Wembanyama was the consensus favorite for MVP, with the caveat that health is always part of the equation.
- Other names discussed as plausible challengers:
- Jayson Tatum
- Jalen Brunson
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Nikola Jokić
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- The hosts note that voter fatigue could open the door for less obvious candidates.
Most Improved Player
- Main picks:
- Brandon Miller
- Amen Thompson
- Baylor Scheierman
- Jaden McDaniels
- The general logic: players in the 21–25 age range who are already good but could make a real statistical leap.
Coach of the Year
- Will Hardy was the clear favorite.
- The reasoning: he’s already proven he can coach bad teams, and now he may finally have a roster good enough to show what he can do.
- Darko Rajaković and Erik Spoelstra also came up, with some joking that the award often goes to the coach of the surprise team rather than the actual best coach.
Finals Predictions
Main Finals picks
- Rob Mahoney: Thunder over Sixers
- J. Kyle Mann: Spurs over Knicks
- Dave Jacoby: Thunder over Cavaliers
Why those teams?
- Thunder: universally treated as the league’s safest elite bet.
- Spurs: Kyle sees them as a team that can learn from a disappointing postseason and come back stronger.
- Cavaliers: Jacoby thinks Cleveland fits the recent pattern of unexpected Eastern Conference Finals/Finals teams.
- Sixers: Rob believes the star power and upside of the LeBron/Embiid/Jalen Brown/Maxey mix could get them to the Finals despite obvious volatility.
Notable Meta Moments
- The episode features a new “variables” song, which the hosts joke may be one of the best yet.
- Dave Jacoby joins as the special guest and becomes part of the running jokes and predictions.
- The group continues its long-running bit about the “variables” spelling/pronunciation and the annual tradition of preseason forecasting.
Live Show Announcements
- Minneapolis live show: Tuesday, October 27
- Indianapolis live show: Thursday, December 10 at the Hi-Fi
- Tickets were directed to theringer.com/events
- The hosts also asked listeners for Minneapolis restaurant recommendations.
Bottom Line
This episode is essentially a preseason NBA roadmap: more competitive games, more pressure on depth, more chances for young players to matter, and a wide-open race for awards and the Finals. The biggest overarching belief is that the league’s new rules and deeper talent pool should make the regular season more watchable — even if it comes with a real physical toll on players.