574. Germany’s Political Disaster and Can the Lib Dems Fight Back?

Summary of 574. Germany’s Political Disaster and Can the Lib Dems Fight Back?

by Goalhanger

48m•September 23, 2026
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Overview of The Rest Is Politics: Leading — Germany’s Political Disaster and the Lib Dems’ Future

This episode is a wide-ranging listener Q&A that opens with a deep dive into Germany’s shock regional election results, where the far-right AfD surged and the CDU collapsed in Angela Merkel’s old political territory. Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell then move through a set of domestic and political topics: the pressures facing rural Britain, the Liberal Democrats’ struggle to turn parliamentary gains into a bigger national force, attacks on the RNLI, the value of longer-form interviews, and what gives them hope in a turbulent political era.

Germany’s “Political Earthquake”

What happened

  • In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Merkel’s former political base), the AfD topped the poll, while the CDU won no seats.
  • In Berlin, the hard-left Die Linke also performed strongly, pushing the CDU out of government there.
  • The hosts describe both results as signs of a major political earthquake, not just a routine local upset.

Why it matters

  • Germany is framed as:
    • the third-largest economy in the world
    • central to the future of the EU
    • increasingly important for European defence funding
  • Both the AfD and Die Linke are treated as potential threats to Germany’s stability and to its alignment with the EU and NATO.

Main takeaway

  • The episode argues this is not just a German domestic story: it has major implications for European security, NATO, and the broader future of the West.

Friedrich Merz, the CDU, and the Rise of Extremes

Should Merz be replaced?

  • The hosts discuss whether CDU leader and Chancellor Friedrich Merz could or should be replaced.
  • The conclusion: it would be extremely difficult, because removing him would likely trigger a vote of no confidence and potentially a general election the CDU would likely lose.

The “firewall” problem

  • The discussion returns to Germany’s Brandmauer — the “firewall” preventing mainstream parties from governing with the AfD.
  • The same logic is increasingly applied to Die Linke, due to its radical left positions and concerns about antisemitism and anti-Western politics.
  • The hosts suggest that if mainstream parties do not manage extremism carefully, the firewall can effectively collapse through political normalisation.

Communication and leadership

  • Merz is seen as having the right broad instincts on reform, but the episode questions whether he is connecting emotionally or politically with voters.
  • His Ukraine stance is praised, but the hosts argue that his messaging may not be landing in a political climate shaped by distrust of the “uni-party” establishment.

Rural Britain: Farming, Taxes, and Neglect

The central problem

  • A listener question from Minette Batters sparks a discussion of rural decline and government policy.
  • The hosts argue that rural communities feel ignored and under pressure, especially because of:
    • tax policy
    • declining public services
    • transport cuts
    • the worsening impact of drought and climate change

Inheritance tax and family farms

  • A major issue discussed is the inheritance tax treatment of farms:
    • many farms are income-poor but asset-rich
    • family farms are often passed down across generations
    • current policy risks forcing sale or fragmentation of working farms
  • The hosts say official figures claiming “almost nobody is affected” do not reflect the reality in many constituencies.

Bigger rural concerns

  • Other pressures highlighted:
    • disappearing rural buses
    • closure of local courts, banks, police stations, and hospitals
    • the hollowing out of rural life
  • The episode argues that rural policy should be about growth in every postcode, but tailored to rural realities, not urban assumptions.

Political angle

  • The hosts suggest rural issues should not be reduced to hunting and shooting.
  • They see an opportunity for Labour to build a more credible rural strategy, especially given its increased number of rural MPs.

Can the Liberal Democrats Break Through?

The problem

  • The Lib Dems are seen as having parliamentary strength but not enough national energy or ambition.
  • Despite holding around 70 seats, they are described as failing to animate the “middle third” of voters:
    • younger
    • more optimistic
    • more socially liberal
    • more internationalist

Media and visibility

  • The hosts argue that the media under-covers the Lib Dems compared with smaller but louder parties like Reform.
  • They say the party should be treated as a serious national actor, not as a side note.

What the Lib Dems need

  • The episode suggests the party should:
    • behave like a government-in-waiting
    • campaign more aggressively and nationally
    • project more confidence and ambition
  • Ed Davey is said to have “fire in his belly” but not yet the sense of a leader who can drive the national conversation.

Listener Questions and Quickfire Topics

Longer interviews

  • The hosts debate whether they should do two- to three-hour interviews.
  • They joke about whether listeners would really stay engaged, but agree that long-form conversations could be interesting if the right guest were chosen.

Languages vs instruments

  • Asked whether they would rather be a master of languages or instruments, both lean toward languages.
  • Rory notes that being able to speak other languages deeply enriches travel and engagement with the world.

The RNLI and far-right attacks

  • The episode strongly condemns attacks on the RNLI.
  • The hosts criticise far-right activists who have:
    • targeted RNLI volunteers
    • published names and addresses online
    • accused the charity of helping migrants
  • They defend the RNLI as a life-saving organisation that rescues people in dangerous seas, regardless of politics.

Rory’s LSE role

  • Rory mentions his new role teaching at the London School of Economics.
  • He says he wants to talk to students about:
    • the reality of politics
    • public service
    • hope
    • how to navigate a changing world shaped by Trump, AI, and geopolitical instability

Hope, Technology, and the Future

What gives them hope

  • A listener cites Sir Tim Berners-Lee, asking what gives the hosts hope in an era of technological and geopolitical disruption.
  • The response:
    • people like Mark Carney and Berners-Lee are shaping constructive models of global cooperation
    • AI may require new forms of international coordination, like a “CERN for AI”
    • local devolution, civil society, and alliances of middle powers could help build a more stable future

The broader message

  • Despite the grim political headlines, the episode ends on a relatively hopeful note:
    • public life is still capable of renewal
    • young people often have a better sense of the world than they are given credit for
    • politics should aim not only to manage decline, but to build trust and possibility

Key Takeaways

  • Germany’s regional elections are treated as a warning sign for Europe, not just German politics.
  • Extremist parties on both left and right are reshaping the political landscape and testing democratic firewalls.
  • Rural Britain is under real strain, and government policy needs to reflect the realities of farms and countryside communities.
  • The Liberal Democrats have the numbers but not yet the momentum to become a true national force.
  • Attacks on the RNLI are condemned as dangerous and disgraceful.
  • Despite everything, the episode ends by arguing that hope still comes from institutions, cooperation, and people willing to think beyond short-term politics.