Overview of The Rest Is Politics — “Andy Burnham’s Big Gamble: Can He Beat Reform?”
This emergency episode focuses on the growing Labour leadership crisis after poor local election results, with Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell debating whether Keir Starmer can survive and whether Andy Burnham could realistically challenge him. The conversation centers on Labour’s internal rules, the politics of a possible leadership contest, and the broader risk that the party could look obsessed with itself while Reform UK benefits.
What’s Happening in Labour
- The episode opens with the fallout from Labour’s disastrous local election results and the speculation they triggered about Keir Starmer’s future.
- Health Secretary Wes Streeting is presented as a key figure in the emerging challenge, after signaling support for a broader leadership debate.
- Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, then enters the picture by moving toward a route into Parliament through a by-election, which would be necessary before he could contest the leadership.
- The hosts note that the party is now in an openly unstable position, with multiple potential candidates and no clear consensus.
How a Labour Leadership Challenge Works
Rory gives a quick explainer of Labour’s rules:
- A challenger needs support from just over 80 MPs to trigger a contest against the sitting leader.
- If that threshold is met, the vote goes to:
- Labour Party members
- affiliated members, including some trade union members
- The winner is determined using alternative vote rounds if nobody gets over 50% initially.
Key point:
- This system is designed to stop a leader being chosen by MPs alone, while still ensuring a candidate has enough parliamentary support to be viable.
Why Andy Burnham’s Move Is Risky
Alastair argues that Burnham’s path is far from safe:
- Burnham would need to win a by-election before he could even stand for leadership.
- The seat discussed is not secure for Labour:
- an MRP poll suggested Reform UK would be favored there
- one graphic cited a very high Reform chance of victory
- Even if Burnham gets into Parliament, he would still need enough MP nominations to get onto the ballot.
Main takeaway:
- Burnham may be popular, but this is not an easy or guaranteed route into national leadership.
The Main Candidates and Factions
The episode sketches a likely three-way ideological split:
Wes Streeting
- Seen as the candidate of the right/center-right of Labour.
- Associated with:
- welfare cuts
- stronger defense
- NHS reform
- pro-business deregulation
- The hosts think he is intelligent, tough, and ambitious, but question whether that translates into wider leadership appeal.
Andy Burnham
- Seen as the most plausible soft-left / anti-Starmer alternative.
- His appeal is emotional as much as ideological:
- especially strong with Labour members and some MPs
- may embody a more “authentic” Labour politics
- But the hosts worry his route in is messy and risky.
Angela Rayner
- Mentioned as potentially very strong with Labour members.
- Rory suggests she could be especially attractive if the contest were decided by the membership alone.
- Her standing is discussed in connection with her tax affairs being cleared, which may have helped her politically.
Ed Miliband
- A surprising possibility is raised: if Burnham is blocked and no one else emerges, Miliband could theoretically be drawn into the contest.
- Alastair is clear he is not predicting this, only saying the situation is so open that even this cannot be ruled out.
Al Carns
- Mentioned as another possible entrant if there is an open contest.
The Hosts’ Core Arguments
1. Starmer is weakened, but not necessarily finished
Alastair’s view:
- Starmer’s chances of long-term survival are now much slimmer.
- Even if he survives the immediate moment, there are now many MPs openly thinking he should go.
- But Alastair thinks Starmer himself still believes he can fight on.
2. Timing matters
Both hosts worry that:
- this is happening right after the King’s Speech
- Labour still hasn’t fully digested the election results
- leadership plotting now makes the party look chaotic and self-absorbed
3. The public may punish Labour for looking self-interested
A major theme is that this looks like:
- “all about the next leader”
- not about voters’ lives
The hosts repeatedly warn that:
- this kind of internal warfare could help Nigel Farage and Reform
- Labour risks looking like the Conservatives at their worst
4. The leadership race may become a left-vs-right fight
Rory and Alastair frame the possible contest like this:
- Wes Streeting = center-right / reformer / business-friendly
- Angela Rayner or Andy Burnham = more left-leaning / party-member-friendly
- Starmer = attempts to present himself as the candidate of the center, if he stands
Notable Insights
- Alastair says he thinks it was probably a mistake to block Andy Burnham earlier.
- He also suggests Starmer could have handled the moment better by calming things down and acknowledging that a change might be coming, rather than appearing defensive.
- Rory’s biggest worry is that Labour is beginning to resemble the Conservatives in the most damaging way: endless internal drama.
- Both hosts agree the party is under existential pressure if it keeps losing public trust.
Likely Outcome
By the end of the episode:
- It is confirmed that Keir Starmer will not block Andy Burnham from entering the race.
- The hosts expect a leadership contest is now likely.
- They think Starmer may still try to fight it, but his position is increasingly fragile.
- They predict the story will continue for weeks, possibly ending with a new Labour leader by the summer.
Bottom Line
This episode is a real-time breakdown of a potential Labour leadership coup. The key question is not just whether Keir Starmer survives, but whether any challenger—especially Andy Burnham—can navigate the party rules, win over MPs, and avoid making Labour look even more divided in front of the public. The hosts see the situation as high-risk, politically damaging, and likely to dominate Labour politics for the coming weeks.