Overview of 161. Trump’s Plan to Defy the Supreme Court (Goalhanger / Rest is Politics US)
Hosts Katty Kay and Anthony discuss the fallout from the Supreme Court striking down President Trump’s recent tariff proclamation, Trump’s impulsive public response (including threats to bypass or disparage the Court), and the legal and political maneuvers he’s pursuing next. The episode also covers a sudden surge of cartel-related violence in Mexico after a raid on a CJNG leader, and how that violence intersects politically with Trump’s tariff narrative. The hosts plug a new mini-series, Becoming Trump, and several other Goalhanger shows and sponsors.
Key topics discussed
- Supreme Court ruling that blocked Trump’s tariff proclamation.
- Trump’s reaction: raising tariff rate (10% → 15%), threats to the Court, and talk of alternative legal tactics.
- Legal mechanisms under discussion: Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act and a “licensing fee” theory based on a 1976 case (Federal Energy Administration v. Algonquin).
- Practical and economic implications of temporary tariffs and port refunds.
- Political fallout and polling shifts (notably declines among Hispanics, independents, and young voters).
- Violence in Mexico after the reported death/injury of CJNG leader “El Mencho” and the Mexican government’s forceful response.
- Broader geopolitical concerns (China–Iran ties) briefly noted.
Legal and policy details (tariffs and the proposed alternative)
Section 122 (1974 Trade Act)
- Allows the president to impose temporary import duties (discussed as 10% initially; Trump raised it to 15%).
- Tariffs under this authority are short-term (about 150 days) and require an investigative finding to justify them.
- After the temporary period Congress would have to vote to make tariffs permanent — unlikely in the hosts’ view.
“Licensing fee” (1976 Algonquin case)
- An obscure legal theory derived from Federal Energy Administration v. Algonquin is being touted as an alternative route: structuring an import charge as a “licensing fee” rather than a tariff.
- Trade lawyers and constitutional scholars the hosts consulted say this would functionally replicate a tariff and almost certainly be struck down if litigated.
- Prediction: courts will issue an injunction/TRO quickly if the administration tries this route — <5% chance of success, per hosts.
Practical economic notes
- Large importers (Costco, Walmart) can claim rebates/refunds; small consumers (e.g., buying wine) are less protected.
- Short-term tariff imposition and subsequent reversal would create business uncertainty and undermine U.S. leverage in trade talks.
Supreme Court, legitimacy, and reactions
- Host commentary: the Court’s decision is framed as a defense of constitutional balance — a marker that the judiciary is still holding the executive in check.
- Neil Gorsuch’s concurrence recommended as especially clear and constitutionalist reading.
- Hosts express concern about three justices (Thomas, Kavanaugh, Alito) being perceived as politicized.
- Trump’s public attacks on the Court and on individual justices (including name-lowering and calling them traitors) are portrayed as dangerous and as putting justices and their families at increased risk.
- Broader institutional problem: the political class (Congress) has not issued a strong, unified defense of the judiciary according to the hosts — they call that a failure.
Political implications & polling
- Hosts cite a steep drop in Trump support among Hispanics, independents, and 18–34-year-olds in recent polls.
- Trump’s approval noted as very weak in the episode (hosts use “negative 27 point approval rating” to emphasize poor standing).
- Short-term calculations:
- Republicans may privately prefer tariffs to expire (avoids having to defend them with voters).
- Democrats have not mounted a coherent rapid response in the first days but may benefit politically from exposing administration chaos going into midterms.
- Strategic spin risk: Trump may try to use Mexican violence or any show of force to claim that tariffs/worked or that his policies reduce drug flows — a short-term distraction tactic.
Mexico: CJNG violence and policy consequences
- CJNG cartel reportedly unleashed violence (roadblocks, arson) across ~20 states after their leader El Mencho was reported killed/gravely injured in a raid.
- Mexican government (President Claudia Sheinbaum) authorized a forceful response; U.S. intelligence reportedly supported the raid.
- Effects: at least ~26 dead (reported), tourism impacts (e.g., Puerto Vallarta smoke images), Americans advised to shelter in place in some areas.
- Risks: cracking down on cartel leadership can fragment organizations and trigger temporary spikes in violence; long-term effectiveness is uncertain.
- Political angle: Trump could capitalize by linking the violence to his trade/tariff stance and take a “victory lap” at the State of the Union.
Predictions and likely short-term outcomes (hosts’ take)
- Licensing fee tactic will be legally challenged and likely blocked by the courts.
- Congress is unlikely to pass legislation making the tariffs permanent.
- Trump may nevertheless try to cut one-off deals with countries and then declare success publicly.
- The State of the Union will be a focal point — watch for how the Court and justices are treated, and whether Trump attempts to rally voters around “affordability” or uses the Mexico events as proof of strength.
- Trade negotiations (e.g., planned talks with India) have already been disrupted; global partners are cautious about making concessions given the uncertainty.
Notable quotes and soundbites
- “When Donald Trump's feelings are hurt, the rest of the world suffers.”
- Trump quoted in the episode: “I can do anything I want.”
- Host assessment: Trump’s behavior described as “petulant,” “arrogant,” and “egocentric.”
- Recommendation by hosts: read Neil Gorsuch’s concurrence for a clear constitutional framing.
What to watch next (actionable watchlist)
- Court filings and emergency motions if the administration tries the licensing-fee approach.
- Any injunctions/TROs from federal courts blocking new actions.
- Congressional leaders’ public statements defending (or not) the constitutional separation of powers.
- State of the Union (timing, tone, and Republican/Democratic responses).
- Developments in Mexico: violence levels, tourism advisories, and whether Sheinbaum’s strategy calms or escalates insecurity.
- Trade negotiations (India and others) and any bespoke bilateral deals the administration may announce.
Promotions & related content mentioned
- Becoming Trump — a new four-part series exploring Trump’s backstory (promoted to members at therestispoliticusus.com).
- Other Goalhanger podcasts promoted: The Book Club, The Rest is Classified.
- Sponsors and ads in the episode: TaxAct, Aura Frames, Hilton, Microsoft 365 Copilot.
Summary: The episode frames the tariff episode as a test of constitutional limits, with the Supreme Court and courts broadly reasserting constraints on executive power. Trump’s public fury and attempt to pivot to alternative legal routes create an immediate legal and political skirmish likely to be decided in the courts and in public messaging over the coming weeks — all while a sudden security crisis in Mexico offers a parallel narrative Trump could exploit.