158. Who’s Really Running Trump’s Foreign Policy?

Summary of 158. Who’s Really Running Trump’s Foreign Policy?

by Goalhanger

40m•February 16, 2026
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Overview of 158. Who’s Really Running Trump’s Foreign Policy?

This episode of The Rest Is Politics US (hosts Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci) examines recent developments at the Munich Security Conference and what they reveal about the direction and drivers of U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump. The hosts contrast Marco Rubio’s conciliatory speech in Munich with the reality that informal actors close to Trump (notably Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, per the hosts) appear to be shaping negotiations on Iran and Ukraine/Russia. The episode also reviews Democratic hopefuls’ appearances in Munich, media optics (including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s poor handling of a Taiwan question), and a second segment on the U.S. economy—tariffs, labor metrics, inflation, polling, and the implications for the midterms.

Key topics discussed

  • Marco Rubio’s Munich speech: tone, themes (civilizational rhetoric vs. classical alliance language), and reception.
  • Who is actually making U.S. foreign policy: official State Department spokespeople vs. informal envoys (Kushner/Witkoff).
  • Democratic hopefuls using Munich as an early foreign-policy showcase (Gavin Newsom, AOC, Chris Murphy, Ruben Gallego, Mark Kelly, Gretchen Whitmer, Gina Raimondo).
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s weak answer on defending Taiwan and the political fallout.
  • Polling shifts, especially a dramatic decline in Trump’s approval among 18–29-year-olds.
  • Economic overview: headline “soft landing” view vs. underlying concerns—tariffs, inflation, labor force participation (U6), corporate price increases, and potential Fed rate cuts.
  • Teasers: upcoming founding-members Q&A, Epstein document discussion, and a playful note on “aliens” for members.

Detailed summary

Rubio at Munich — tone vs. substance

  • Rubio gave a speech at Munich that the hosts describe as less abrasive than recent MAGA rhetoric (e.g., Trump in Davos or J.D. Vance in Munich last year) and that earned a standing ovation.
  • Key themes highlighted by hosts: emphasis on “civilizational” questions (interpreted as culturally conservative/identity-focused), calls for Europeans to spend more on defense, and an implicit “we’ll help if you meet our terms” posture.
  • The hosts argue Rubio stopped short of explicitly addressing Russia/Ukraine in this speech.
  • Reaction: Rubio’s tone got applause but the hosts question whether it represents any real change in MAGA foreign policy. They also argue Trump disliked the speech because it shifted attention away from him and wasn’t aligned with the more abrasive MAGA line he prefers.

Who’s actually running foreign policy?

  • Hosts claim informal figures around Trump—named in the episode as Jared Kushner and real-estate investor Steve Witkoff—are undertaking direct negotiations (e.g., in Geneva) with Iran and on Russia-Ukraine matters.
  • Point made: Rubio (and the State Department) lacks the decisive policymaking authority in this environment; foreign policy is being shaped outside traditional diplomatic channels.
  • Consequence: European partners face unpredictability and may increase defense/autonomy decisions and defense production investment.

Democrats at Munich — auditioning and optics

  • Several Democratic hopefuls attended Munich to signal global leadership and national-security credentials. Gavin Newsom’s approach is singled out for nuance: he said he was “there to learn,” which the hosts saw as politically shrewd.
  • The hosts disagree over whether Democrats should be doing foreign-policy optics abroad at this stage: one view calls it useful for demonstrating competence; the other warns it looks like global-elite posturing and risks poor domestic optics in swing states.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Taiwan question

  • AOC answered a direct question on whether the U.S. would send troops to defend Taiwan with a hedged response focused on avoiding conflict and emphasizing economic and diplomatic measures—hosts call the answer weak and politically damaging.
  • The clip circulated online and was amplified by MAGA critics; hosts use it to argue AOC is not yet ready to carry a top-tier presidential-security portfolio.

Polling and political landscape

  • Hosts highlight a dramatic drop in Trump’s approval among 18–29-year-olds—an Economist/YouGov finding reported as a 51-point swing since he took office.
  • Other polling: a cited poll found 60% would prefer Biden back as president (per hosts), and general low approval (~36–40%) for Trump is noted as a structural problem going into midterms.
  • Discussion of political strategy: Democrats might better prioritize domestic economic messaging (town halls in Michigan/Ohio) rather than foreign-policy appearances—Republicans may be vulnerable if domestic economic pain persists.

The economy — soft landing? Not so fast

  • Headline picture: soft landing narrative, low unemployment headline (4.3%), inflation easing (but still >2%).
  • Deeper metrics: U6 unemployment (which includes underemployment and discouraged workers) closer to ~8% is emphasized to show hidden weakness. Labor force participation is a concern.
  • Tariffs: hosts argue tariffs are raising costs and creating supply-chain uncertainty; companies like Levi’s and McCormick are cited as planning price increases.
  • Tax rebates: administration expects incoming rebates/credits to boost consumer spending; hosts are skeptical this will be sufficient without structural policy (workforce training, industrial retooling).
  • Fed and rates: discussion of a likely Fed-chair confirmation path, hopes for rate cuts this year (multiple cuts predicted by the hosts’ econ team), and political interference/controversy around the Fed and Jerome Powell mentioned.
  • Broader point: K-shaped recovery—some sectors/people prosper while many feel worse off—threatening political support for the GOP incumbents.

Notable quotes / lines

  • “There’s only room for one person on the podium when it comes to taking the applause of the crowd. And that’s Donald Trump.” — used to explain why Trump disliked Rubio’s standing ovation.
  • Rubio’s Munich message framed by hosts as focusing more on “civilizational” concerns than directly confronting Russia/Ukraine.
  • Gavin Newsom: “I’m not trying to give foreign policy advice. I need it.” — presented as an example of effective, studied vulnerability.

Main takeaways

  • Rubio’s Munich speech was more diplomatic in tone but likely not a substantive departure from MAGA foreign policy; it may reflect an attempt to straddle traditional Republican foreign-policy orthodoxy and MAGA demands—an unlikely sustainable path.
  • The hosts argue key foreign-policy moves are increasingly being handled by informal, non–Senate-confirmed actors close to Trump (Kushner/Witkoff), raising concerns for allies and protocol.
  • Democrats are using Munich as an early-stage foreign-policy stage for 2028 positioning, but the optics can cut both ways—effective global credibility vs. appearing out of touch with domestic voters.
  • Economic indicators show headline resilience, but deeper metrics (U6, participation, tariff-driven cost pressures) and political volatility mean the White House remains vulnerable going into midterms.
  • Polling trends, especially among young voters, are alarming for Trump’s coalition; a continued erosion combined with economic pain could produce substantial midterm losses.

Recommended watching/listening from the episode (by topic)

  • Marco Rubio’s Munich speech — to judge tone vs. policy content.
  • AOC’s Munich clip responding to the Taiwan question — to assess the political fallout.
  • Coverage of Jared Kushner/Steve Witkoff’s reported talks (as discussed in the episode) — to follow unconventional diplomacy.
  • Economic briefings on U6 unemployment and corporate pricing guidance (Levi’s, McCormick) — to track cost-of-living pressures ahead of midterms.

Episode logistics & extras

  • Hosts promoted upcoming founding-members content: Q&A, a special series on Donald J. Trump, deeper coverage of newly released Epstein files, and a playful note about a discussion on “aliens” for members.
  • Sponsors/readers: BetterHelp, Planet Fitness, PC Matic D-List, Aura Frames, Microsoft/365 Copilot, McDonald’s meal deals were read during the episode.

Overall, the episode contends that public diplomatic gestures (Rubio in Munich) obscure a more chaotic and informal foreign-policy process inside the Trump orbit, while domestic economic strains and shifting polling create significant political risk for the administration.