Overview of 161. Putin, Trump, and 500 Years of Resisting Russia (Radek Sikorski)
This episode of The Rest Is Politics features Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and former Foreign Minister Radosław (Radek) Sikorski in conversation with hosts Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell. The interview covers Sikorski’s personal journey from communist Poland to Oxford and frontline reporting in Afghanistan, Poland’s post‑Cold War pivot into NATO and the EU, deep historical and contemporary reflections on Russia and Vladimir Putin, the rise of populism in Europe (especially Poland), Brexit and European politics, Israel–Palestine, and the strategic imperatives around Ukraine — including Europe’s defence posture and prospects for Ukrainian EU/NATO membership.
Guest snapshot
- Radek Sikorski — Polish politician, former Defence and Foreign Minister, Deputy Prime Minister (2023), journalist and author. Former British asylum seeker and Oxford alumnus. Long record of reporting from war zones (notably Afghanistan) and vocal critic of Russian expansionism.
- Hosts: Rory Stewart (London) and Alastair Campbell (Poland).
Key topics and themes
Personal background and early experiences
- Sikorski’s upbringing under communist Poland; solidarity family roots.
- Oxford education (Pembroke College), early political formation, and friendships with future UK political figures.
- Intense field reporting in 1980s Afghanistan — brought out early images of Stinger missiles; reflections on Mujahideen complexity over time.
Poland’s post‑communist foreign policy
- Role in pushing Poland toward NATO and Western integration shortly after 1989.
- Poland’s history with Russia spans 500 years; repeated invasions, partitions, and Soviet domination shape current threat perceptions.
- Poland’s defense posture: sustained spending (2% of GDP historically, now ~4.7%) and public acceptance of higher defence budgets.
Russia, Putin and Russian foreign policy
- Putin’s early years showed signs of modernization; later reversals (Andropov plaque, curriculum changes) signalled hardening.
- Arab Spring and 2011 Russian protests were turning points that hardened Putin’s authoritarianism.
- Sergey Lavrov: described as once an influential diplomat but post‑Crimea has become chiefly a spokesman for Putin.
- Sikorski’s judgment: Russia must meet NATO/democracy criteria to be reliably integrated; otherwise it remains a threat.
Populism, institutions and the Polish case
- Law and Justice’s 2015 win explained as a narrow, partly contingent victory — populism offers simple solutions to complex problems.
- Institutional erosion: politicization of judiciary, media and ambassadorships has damaged impartiality and public trust.
- Universities and state media were targeted; rebuilding professional, non‑partisan institutions is arduous and decades‑long.
Europe, defence and strategic autonomy
- Europe’s structural problem: confederation model without unity of command makes defence synchronization difficult.
- Sikorski advocates for EU defence capabilities and reinvigorated European defence industries to avoid constant reliance on the U.S.
- Concern about German pacifism: “I fear German pacifism more than German rearmament” (applied to NATO/EU collective security dynamics).
Ukraine, Israel and transatlantic politics
- Ukraine: Sikorski expects EU membership early next decade; stresses that Russia cannot be allowed to win and that Western support must continue. Ukraine is preparing for a protracted conflict.
- Israel/Palestine: Poland recognizes Palestinian statehood and criticizes both illegal settlements and disproportionate use of force; Sikorski emphasizes context — Hamas’s October attack must be acknowledged in discussions.
- U.S. politics impact on Europe: concern about foreign interference and ideological alignment with European nationalists; unease about U.S. political figures engaging with European far‑right actors.
Main takeaways
- History matters: Poland’s stance on Russia is shaped by centuries of invasion and occupation; that historical memory drives robust defence spending and readiness.
- Putin’s trajectory wasn’t inevitable — policy choices, internal politics, and reactions to 2011 protests and the Arab Spring pushed Russia toward authoritarianism and revanchism.
- Institutions are fragile: democratic norms, judicial independence, professional civil services and independent media are hard to rebuild once politicized.
- Europe needs greater strategic unity: to be credible, the EU should develop defence capabilities and industrial capacity that reduce sole dependence on U.S. military assistance.
- Ukraine’s Western integration is plausible but contingent on sustained support; Sikorski predicts EU accession in the early 2030s if momentum holds.
- Populism endures because it offers simple answers; countering it requires sustained civic, institutional and media efforts to rebut misinformation and explain complex policy trade‑offs.
Notable quotes and insights
- “Poland has learned over 500 years that when the Russians threaten, you take it seriously.”
- “I fear German pacifism more than German rearmament.”
- On Lavrov: once a “real foreign minister” but post‑Crimea largely “a spokesman” for Putin.
- On Putin’s turn: Arab Spring/2011 protests were decisive in convincing him that liberalizing could threaten his rule.
- “Institutions are much more fragile than we think — constitutions are only as good as those who man them.”
Practical implications / recommended actions (for policymakers & civic actors)
- Reinforce judicial independence: restore legal safeguards and appointment processes that separate judges from partisan control.
- Professionalize public services: depoliticize ambassadorships and media/government appointments; rebuild trust through transparent merit-based systems.
- Invest in European defence industrial capacity and common capabilities to allow autonomous crisis responses.
- Sustain long‑term military and economic support for Ukraine — prepare for a protracted conflict timeline.
- Counter disinformation: invest in fact‑checking, civic education and independent media to inoculate electorates against populist simplifications.
- Protect university autonomy and academic freedom as bulwarks of critical inquiry and long‑term resilience to authoritarian narratives.
Quick read: what to remember in one line
Radek Sikorski argues that Poland’s long history with Russia explains its vigilance, warns that institution‑weakening by populists is harder to fix than to break, and calls for stronger European strategic autonomy and sustained support for Ukraine.
Further listening / reading (mentioned or implied)
- Sikorski’s writings and reportage from Afghanistan (1980s).
- Interviews/features with Anne Applebaum on populism (she was referenced as a complementary voice).
- Current coverage of EU defence proposals, frozen Russian assets, and Ukraine accession process.