Overview of The Rest is Politics US — “237. Election Eve: Trump Seizes on Michigan”
With Election Day just hours away, Anthony and Katty focus on two major late-cycle storylines: the shock endorsement in Michigan by Democrat Haley Stevens of Republican Mike Rogers, and renewed fears about Donald Trump’s foreign-policy instincts after Tucker Carlson floated the possibility of a U.S. nuclear strike on Iran. The episode blends live election analysis, intraparty Democratic tension, and alarm over what a second Trump term could mean for national security.
Key Takeaways
- Michigan became the late-breaking flashpoint after Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers.
- The hosts argue the endorsement is highly unusual and politically messy, especially given Stevens had benefited from Democratic donors and infrastructure.
- They see the move as potentially:
- a small boost for Rogers if it gives permission to skeptical voters to defect, especially some Jewish voters unhappy with El-Sayed’s stance, or
- a mobilizing moment for Democrats, particularly younger and anti-establishment voters outraged by the switch.
- The bigger significance may be long-term: this election is seen as the beginning of a 2028 Democratic civil war between moderates and progressives, with Israel likely to remain a major fault line.
- Another major concern is Trump’s unpredictability on Iran. The hosts discuss Tucker Carlson’s comments suggesting people around Trump think a nuclear strike is not impossible.
- They conclude that a Trump order to use nuclear force would be dangerous, unprecedented, and possibly illegal in practical terms, but not something they consider impossible given Trump’s past comments and behavior.
Michigan: Haley Stevens Endorses Mike Rogers
Why the endorsement matters
The hosts spend much of the episode unpacking Haley Stevens’ surprise move to back the Republican candidate in Michigan after losing the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed by a relatively narrow margin.
They note that:
- they can remember cross-party endorsements, but not many examples of a candidate endorsing the opposing party’s nominee after losing a primary;
- Stevens had previously been part of the Democratic ecosystem in the race, making the reversal especially jarring;
- the move may reflect personal, political, or donor-related pressure, though the hosts say there is no evidence of direct payment or corruption.
Possible effects on the race
The hosts debate whether the endorsement will change the result at all.
Potential effects they discuss:
- Could help Rogers by signaling to undecided voters that supporting him is acceptable.
- Could hurt El-Sayed if Stevens’ endorsement discourages some voters from backing him.
- Could energize Democrats who feel betrayed and want to turn out in response.
Their overall view:
- It probably doesn’t dramatically alter the race, but it may slightly shift margins in a close contest.
- It is more important as a symbol of internal Democratic fracture than as a standalone electoral event.
What the Endorsement Says About the Democratic Party
The hosts use the Michigan situation to highlight deeper ideological tensions inside the Democratic Party.
Main concern
They argue the episode exposes:
- a widening divide between the party’s center and its progressive wing;
- the way Israel/Palestine has become a serious wedge issue;
- the possibility that this election will shape the post-2024 direction of the party, especially heading into 2028.
Broader implication
Their view is that Democrats may have been papering over real divisions, but Michigan shows those cracks are still very much alive.
Trump, Tucker Carlson, and Iran
The nuclear-strike warning
A second major topic is Tucker Carlson’s claim that he has spoken with people around Trump and that it is “not impossible” Trump could use a nuclear weapon against Iran after the election.
The hosts react with concern, but also skepticism about Carlson’s motives and timing.
Why they take it seriously
They point to:
- Trump’s history of asking Mark Milley why he couldn’t use a nuclear weapon;
- the fact that, unlike in Trump’s first term, there are fewer institutional guardrails around him now;
- Pete Hegseth’s presence as a hardline figure who might support aggressive action;
- Trump’s pattern of viewing foreign policy through a transactional, non-ideological lens.
Their core argument
They do not think this is a zero-probability scenario.
They argue:
- Trump has shown a willingness to dehumanize adversaries;
- he may see nuclear threats as a bargaining tool or a show of dominance;
- a military order of this kind would trigger a constitutional and ethical crisis.
Could the Military Refuse an Illegal Order?
The hosts also address whether the military would obey a nuclear strike order.
Their view
- The president has broad authority, but the hosts suggest the military would likely face an enormous moral and legal test.
- They believe some senior officers might refuse such an order, especially if it were clearly catastrophic or reckless.
- They worry that if no one stops Trump, the U.S. could be pushed into a constitutional crisis.
Trump’s Midterm Mood and the Risk of Chaos
The episode also covers Trump’s closing-election behavior and his claims that he “feels good” about the midterms.
Hosts’ interpretation
They view this as:
- bluster, not genuine confidence;
- partly a response to poor polling and anger around the economy and the state of the country;
- possibly a sign that Trump is already preparing to claim fraud if results go against Republicans.
They stress that unlike the 2020 presidential election, a midterm conspiracy would be harder to execute because it would require disrupting many separate state-run races.
What to Watch After Election Day
The hosts frame this election as the beginning of the next political phase, not the end.
Key things they say to watch
- Whether Michigan’s late drama affects turnout or margins.
- Whether Democrats’ internal fight over ideology and Israel becomes more visible after Tuesday.
- Whether Trump escalates rhetoric about fraud or prepares for a broader power struggle.
- Whether Iran becomes a major flashpoint in the days after the election.
Upcoming Live Coverage
The episode ends with a reminder about their election-night and post-election coverage:
- Tuesday update: 6pm UK time / 1pm Eastern
- Live election stream: Wednesday morning from midnight–3am Eastern / 5am–8am UK time
They encourage listeners to subscribe and tune in for live analysis as results come in.