What would a far-right government in France look like?

Summary of What would a far-right government in France look like?

by Financial Times

29m•July 9, 2026
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Overview of The Rachman Review from the Financial Times

This episode examines the possibility of a far-right victory in France, with Gideon Rachman speaking to Financial Times former Paris bureau chief Victor Mallet about Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, and what a National Rally government could mean for France, the EU, and NATO. The conversation argues that the far right is now closer to power than ever before: Le Pen has been cleared to run in the 2027 presidential election, the party is increasingly mainstreamed, and polling suggests the National Rally is well placed to reach — and potentially win — the runoff.

Electoral Position and Likelihood of Victory

  • Marine Le Pen remains one of the most popular presidential contenders in France.
  • Jordan Bardella is, in some polls, even slightly more popular than Le Pen, but Le Pen’s candidacy is now back on track.
  • The National Rally is far ahead of France’s fragmented centrist, centre-right, and left-wing rivals.
  • The most likely scenario is:
    • Le Pen reaches the second round again.
    • The key question is whether she can finally cross the 50% threshold and win.
  • The episode suggests that this time the far right’s chances are stronger than in 2017 or 2022 because:
    • The party is more established.
    • Other parties remain divided.
    • Anti-far-right “republican front” voting appears weaker than before.

How Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella Fit Together

  • Le Pen is seen as experienced, battle-hardened, and able to reassure older voters.
  • Bardella is younger, charismatic, and helps the party reach younger voters and voters outside the traditional far-right base.
  • The two are portrayed as politically complementary rather than openly competitive.
  • Even though Bardella was initially expected to be the candidate if Le Pen were banned, the episode suggests there is no serious split between them.

Normalization of the National Rally

A major theme of the discussion is that Le Pen has transformed her party from a fringe movement into a mainstream force.

Key aspects of this normalization:

  • The party has moved away from the openly neo-fascist and neo-Nazi associations of the Jean-Marie Le Pen era.
  • Le Pen expelled her father from the party to make it more electorally acceptable.
  • The National Rally now has:
    • broader geographic reach,
    • more local elected officials,
    • greater acceptance among some voters who would once have been embarrassed to admit support.
  • The party is now described as the largest single party in France’s National Assembly.

The Legal Case and the “Persecution” Narrative

  • Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling public funds could still shape the campaign.
  • She may even have to campaign under an electronic ankle bracelet if her appeal fails before the election.
  • The episode notes that Le Pen is likely to frame the case as elite persecution.
  • However, the transcript also stresses that the case is not viewed by most French voters as especially scandalous because:
    • the misuse of European Parliament funds is seen as relatively common,
    • similar cases have involved politicians across the political spectrum.

Why Many Elites Are Alarmed Now

The discussion suggests that panic among centrists, liberals, and the Paris establishment has grown because Le Pen’s victory no longer seems implausible.

Reasons for the shift:

  • The National Rally has steadily increased its support over many years.
  • The party is now rooted in many communities beyond its old strongholds.
  • Traditional parties have weakened and lost credibility.
  • In parts of former industrial and mining France, the far right now dominates areas once held by communists and socialists.

Core Policy Agenda of a Far-Right Government

The episode makes clear that a National Rally victory would not just be symbolic — it would likely produce major policy changes.

Immigration and citizenship

  • The party would sharply restrict migration.
  • It would reduce rights for non-French residents.
  • It would make citizenship harder to obtain.
  • Birthright citizenship and family reunification could be curtailed.

Democratic and constitutional implications

  • France’s traditional universalist model of rights could be weakened.
  • The episode frames this as a major break with principles dating back to the French Revolution.

Economy

  • One of the biggest weaknesses of the far right is its lack of coherent economic policy.
  • Le Pen has proposed reducing the retirement age, which would add fiscal pressure.
  • The transcript suggests the National Rally may underestimate the constraints facing a highly indebted middle power.
  • Business and finance are increasingly engaging with Le Pen and Bardella out of concern and pragmatism.

Risks for France, the EU, and NATO

The episode treats a far-right French presidency as potentially transformative for Europe.

European Union

  • The National Rally no longer talks seriously about leaving the EU or euro, because that proved unpopular.
  • Instead, it aims to weaken the EU from within.
  • A National Rally government would likely challenge the EU’s supranational authority, especially over law, trade, and regulation.
  • The broader effect would be a weaker EU with less ability to project rule-of-law and human-rights norms globally.

NATO and geopolitics

  • Le Pen’s old pro-Russia stance has softened.
  • She and Bardella are now more clearly aligned with Ukraine against Moscow.
  • The episode suggests they would still need to compromise with Europe and NATO realities if they governed.

International Far-Right Alliances

  • The National Rally is close to Viktor Orbán and Spain’s Vox.
  • It has been more cautious with Germany’s AfD, which it sees as too extreme for French voters.
  • Le Pen and Bardella have also been careful not to become too closely associated with Donald Trump, whose image is toxic in much of Western Europe.
  • This reflects a broader tension: nationalist parties may cooperate internationally, but their nationalist instincts limit how far that cooperation can go.

Campaign Dynamics to Watch

The episode ends by stressing that French politics often turns on accidents and unexpected scandals.

Things to watch over the next year:

  • Whether Le Pen can maintain her lead and avoid any legal or political setback.
  • Whether the centre and centre-right can unite behind a credible alternative.
  • Whether Mélenchon or another far-left candidate could split the anti-Le Pen vote and make a National Rally victory more likely.
  • Whether economic worries, market pressure, or elite resistance can constrain the far right.
  • Whether the National Rally can keep broadening its appeal without alienating its core base.

Bottom Line

  • The National Rally is no longer a fringe protest movement; it is a disciplined, mainstreamed governing contender.
  • Le Pen is the front-runner to reach the runoff and possibly win the presidency.
  • A far-right government would likely mean:
    • tougher immigration policy,
    • a major shift in citizenship and rights,
    • strain on France’s constitutional tradition,
    • and a serious weakening of the EU’s political project.
  • Even so, major uncertainties remain — especially France’s economic constraints and the possibility of political accidents altering the race.