What would a Bolsonaro victory in Brazil mean for the world?

Summary of What would a Bolsonaro victory in Brazil mean for the world?

by Financial Times

29m•October 8, 2026
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Overview of What would a Bolsonaro victory in Brazil mean for the world?

This Financial Times Rachman Review episode examines the likely return of the Bolsonaro political camp to Brazil’s presidency and what that would mean domestically, regionally, and globally. Gideon Rachman speaks with political scientist Oliver Stuenkel, who argues that a Bolsonaro win is now the most likely outcome after the first round of voting. The conversation focuses on why voters appear willing to overlook Jair Bolsonaro’s coup attempt and conviction, how a Bolsonaro government would govern, and the implications for Brazil’s democracy, the Amazon, U.S.-Latin America relations, and China.

Main takeaways

  • A Bolsonaro victory is framed as the most likely outcome

    • Stuenkel says the first-round result and Brazil’s long pattern of anti-incumbency make a comeback by the left difficult.
    • He argues that voters who are not firmly aligned with Lula are more likely to drift right than left in the runoff.

  • Brazil remains deeply polarized

    • Many voters see the election less as a referendum on democracy and more as a choice between two disliked camps.
    • Concerns about Jair Bolsonaro’s coup attempt, the January 8 riots, and his imprisonment do not appear to have been decisive for many voters.

  • The courts helped defend democracy, but at a cost

    • Stuenkel praises Brazil’s judicial response to Bolsonaro’s attempted power grab.
    • But he also argues that an overly activist Supreme Court and high-profile scandals have since damaged the judiciary’s legitimacy in the eyes of many Brazilians.

  • The “vaccinated Bolsonaro” is still a Bolsonaro

    • Flávio Bolsonaro is presented as slightly more moderate in tone, especially on issues like public health.
    • But he is still described as a proxy for his father and likely to pursue broadly similar goals.

Domestic implications for Brazil

Economy and governance

  • The next president is expected to face very difficult fiscal and economic conditions:

    • high inflation
    • a large budget deficit
    • weak growth
    • pressure to avoid unpopular spending cuts

  • Stuenkel suggests Bolsonaro-style politics are populist rather than austerity-oriented, making fiscal discipline hard.

Crime and security

  • Bolsonaro’s base expects a tougher law-and-order approach, but Stuenkel says there are limits to what the federal government can do.
  • Brazil’s homicide trends are influenced heavily by cartel dynamics and state-level policing, so dramatic improvements are unlikely.

Democracy and family power

  • A Bolsonaro win could lead to an effort to free Jair Bolsonaro early, potentially bringing him back into political life.
  • The episode also highlights possible family tensions:
    • Flávio Bolsonaro
    • Michelle Bolsonaro
    • Eduardo Bolsonaro
  • That creates the possibility of a dynastic power struggle inside the Bolsonaro camp.

Foreign policy and global impact

Shift toward the United States

  • A Bolsonaro government would likely bring Brazil closer to the U.S. on security and multilateral alignment.
  • The episode suggests Brazil may join or deepen cooperation in hemispheric security and anti-cartel efforts.
  • Symbolic moves could include stronger alignment with Trump-era positions and harsher rhetoric on climate policy.

But China remains a hard constraint

  • Despite ideological affinity with Washington, Brazil’s economy is still deeply tied to China, especially through agribusiness.
  • Stuenkel argues that even Bolsonaro-aligned leaders would struggle to cut Chinese ties because:
    • China is Brazil’s most important trade partner
    • agribusiness depends heavily on that market
    • diversification away from the U.S. is increasingly attractive

The Amazon and climate policy

  • The biggest environmental concern is a rollback of deforestation enforcement.

  • Under Lula, anti-deforestation agencies were strengthened and deforestation fell.

  • A Bolsonaro return would likely mean:

    • weaker environmental regulation
    • more pressure to expand agricultural land
    • greater danger to the Amazon

  • That would have global climate consequences and likely deepen conflict with Europe and environmental groups.

Regional and global consequences

  • Stuenkel argues Bolsonaro’s return would complete a rightward continental shift in Latin America.
  • The broader pattern is seen as part of a Trump-backed wave of partisan interventionism in the hemisphere.
  • Short-term gains for the U.S. may include:
    • more security cooperation
    • more alignment against left-wing governments
  • But the long-term risk is anti-American backlash:
    • resentment over U.S. pressure
    • more hedging by Latin American states
    • greater interest in China and other partners

Bottom line

If Bolsonaro returns to power, the biggest changes would likely be:

  • a more conservative, pro-Trump foreign policy
  • weaker environmental protection, especially in the Amazon
  • continued polarization and democratic tension inside Brazil
  • limited room for real economic or security improvement
  • a deeper shift in Latin America toward the U.S. on paper, but not necessarily in long-term public sentiment

Stuenkel’s core argument is that a Bolsonaro victory would not just be a Brazilian story: it would signal a major setback for climate policy, a boost for Trump-aligned hemispheric politics, and a test of how resilient democratic institutions really are.