Overview of Ukraine’s ‘existential’ battle with Russia
In this Financial Times Rackman Review episode, Gideon Rachman speaks with former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba about the state of the war, Ukraine’s long-term prospects, and what Kyiv still needs from the West. Kuleba argues that the conflict has become an existential war for both Ukraine and Russia, with no settlement possible unless Russia eventually accepts Ukraine’s right to exist as an independent, sovereign, European state. He is more optimistic than he was a few months ago, but still expects a long war defined increasingly by air warfare, drones, and economic attrition.
Main takeaways
Ukraine’s outlook: grim, but more resilient than before
- Kuleba says Ukraine survived a brutal winter of infrastructure strikes and social strain, which improved morale and proved the country’s resilience.
- He forecasts that by 2026 the front line will likely be more or less stable, while the main fighting shifts into the air.
- He believes Ukraine can remain financially and morally resilient if Western support holds.
The war is shifting toward technology and air power
- Ukraine cannot match Russia in manpower, so it relies on technological solutions, especially drones, to save lives and increase lethality.
- Kuleba stresses that drones are not a replacement for artillery, shells, and mortars, but part of a combined battlefield toolkit.
- He describes Ukraine’s drone industry as having been built from scratch during the war and now evolving rapidly through constant updates from frontline data.
Deep strikes inside Russia are changing the war
- Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil and energy infrastructure are, in Kuleba’s view, the most effective sanctions imposed on Russia.
- These strikes target Russia’s ability to export oil and finance the war.
- He argues the West often deliberates too slowly while wars move fast.
The Iran war has indirect consequences for Ukraine
- Kuleba says the conflict with Iran benefits Putin by raising oil prices and buying Russia more time.
- He warns that Ukraine may face a summer peak in Russian ballistic attacks, especially because of shortages in Patriot interceptors.
- At the same time, he sees a silver lining: Ukraine’s drone and anti-drone expertise is deepening ties with Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia.
The Ukrainian diaspora is now a long-term reality
- Kuleba calls the departure of millions of Ukrainians a “disaster” and says many will not return.
- Rather than trying to reverse migration, he argues Ukraine should focus on helping its citizens abroad remain Ukrainian across generations and continue supporting the country from where they live.
- He sees this as a major shift in how Ukraine should think about its people overseas.
What Ukraine needs most now
Immediate military needs
- Intercepting missiles and drones, especially anti-ballistic systems such as Patriot interceptors.
- Protection of the rear and energy grid, not just the front line.
Financial and political support
- Macrofinancial stability, including the EU’s large loan package.
- Clear progress toward EU membership, which Kuleba frames as both a strategic and symbolic goal.
Why EU membership matters
- Kuleba says Ukrainians view EU membership as the chance for a normal life in a country governed responsibly.
- He rejects “halfway” membership models that would exclude Ukraine from full political rights.
- He is open to transitional economic arrangements, but insists on full political membership and voting rights.
Kuleba’s broader view of the war
This is not just about territory
- Kuleba argues the war is about the viability of the national project on both sides, not simply land or NATO.
- He says the war ends only when Russia accepts Ukraine’s right to exist as a separate European state.
Europe must take the Russian threat more seriously
- He warns that European governments understand the threat from Russia better than their voters do.
- He is skeptical that Europe will be safe until a political leader wins elections on an explicit promise to defend Europe from Russia.
U.S. diplomacy has lost urgency
- He says the latest American diplomatic push has been sidelined, especially as U.S. attention shifts to Iran.
- He suggests Washington is no longer putting the same pressure on Kyiv, but also that it is not offering the same level of support.
Notable insights
- “It’s an existential war.”
- “Ukraine’s deep strikes in Russia are the most efficient sanctions imposed on Russia.”
- “The biggest task is to help these people to remain Ukrainians.”
- “This is not how we have been thinking about it” — said of rethinking the diaspora as a long-term global Ukrainian community.
- “The pause can come only if Russia hits the wall on the front line.”
Bottom line
Kuleba’s message is that Ukraine is still in a hard, prolonged struggle, but it has adapted: it is surviving through resilience, drones, deep strikes, and international partnerships. The war is unlikely to end soon, and any settlement depends less on battlefield compromise than on whether Russia is forced to accept Ukraine’s sovereign future.