Trump returns to Beijing: what’s at stake

Summary of Trump returns to Beijing: what’s at stake

by Financial Times

31m•May 14, 2026
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Overview of the Financial Times’ The Rachman Review episode, “Trump returns to Beijing: what’s at stake”

This episode examines Donald Trump’s first visit to Beijing in a decade and what both the US and China hope to gain from the summit with Xi Jinping. Gideon Rachman and guest James Crabtree argue that the meeting reflects a much more balanced — and more dangerous — US-China relationship than existed 10 years ago. Trump is looking for a headline-making economic deal, while China wants strategic stability, especially on Taiwan, and a way to avoid further destabilization from Trump’s unpredictable style.

Main Themes

Trump wants a deal, above all

  • Trump is described as viewing summit diplomacy in symbolic and transactional terms.
  • He wants a large, visible economic package, likely involving:
    • soybean purchases
    • Boeing aircraft
    • energy imports
  • Crabtree suggests Trump is likely to claim success regardless of how substantive the deal really is.

China wants stability and predictability

  • Beijing’s core objective is not a flashy agreement but a more stable great-power relationship.
  • Chinese leaders see themselves as operating from a position of growing confidence, but they want to reduce volatility.
  • The summit is also about preventing Trump from making sudden strategic concessions or disruptions.

US-China Power Balance

The relationship is now much more even

  • Compared with Trump’s last visit 10 years ago, China now has far greater leverage.
  • A key example is trade retaliation:
    • US tariffs were met by Chinese restrictions on rare earths and critical minerals.
    • That showed Beijing can impose real costs on Washington.
  • This makes a purely punitive US strategy much harder to sustain.

The “China hawks” are weaker than expected

  • Figures like Peter Navarro and Elbridge Colby are still influential, but not dominant.
  • The episode suggests that the old bipartisan Washington consensus on being uniformly tough on China is weaker than many assumed.
  • Trump’s own instincts often override the hawkish strategic agenda.

Taiwan: The Most Sensitive Issue

A possible diplomatic concession

  • A major concern is whether Trump might shift US rhetoric on Taiwan.
  • The most significant possible concession would be for Washington to explicitly oppose Taiwanese independence.
  • That would not be a minor wording change; it would mark a meaningful diplomatic shift.

Why Taiwan worries everyone

  • Trump is seen as personally ambivalent about Taiwan.
  • He has complained that Taiwan “stole” parts of the US semiconductor industry and often treats Taipei as not doing enough for its own defense.
  • Taiwan and regional allies like Japan are nervous that Trump could be willing to bargain over long-standing US policy.

Military implications

  • The Iran war has pulled US munitions and air-defense resources away from the Indo-Pacific.
  • That could weaken deterrence around Taiwan.
  • At the same time, Taiwan is trying to build a “porcupine” defense:
    • long-range missiles
    • sea mines
    • drones
  • Crabtree notes a paradox: making Taiwan too hard to attack could also encourage China to act sooner, before the defensive window closes.

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

China’s role is limited

  • Trump framed reopening the Strait of Hormuz as being in China’s interest, since China imports much of its oil through that route.
  • Crabtree is skeptical that Beijing will meaningfully intervene.
  • His view: China prefers not to get deeply involved in Middle East crises.

Beijing’s message to Tehran is partly performative

  • China’s diplomatic contacts with Iran appear aimed partly at signaling to Trump that it is “doing something.”
  • Beijing likely wants the strait reopened, but does not want to spend major diplomatic capital on the issue.

China is affected, but not as badly as others

  • China has:
    • large strategic reserves
    • faster electrification than many states
    • a more resilient energy system than poorer Asian countries
  • The countries most badly hit by higher oil prices are poorer, energy-vulnerable states.

Technology, AI, and the Future of Great-Power Competition

AI is the central long-term contest

  • Both sides see AI as strategically critical, with military and economic consequences.
  • The Trump administration is less focused than Biden on restricting China’s access to advanced technology.
  • Instead, Trump’s team seems more focused on:
    • boosting US AI industry
    • easing domestic restrictions
    • selling more AI abroad

The race is close

  • The US currently feels somewhat ahead because China has not had a major “DeepSeek moment” equivalent recently.
  • But China is not far behind, especially in:
    • industrial deployment
    • diffusion of AI across manufacturing and production
  • The episode suggests the AI competition is close and likely to define future rivalry.

China may be stronger in “electrification”

  • The discussion highlights China’s advantage in batteries, electric vehicles, renewables, and broader electrification.
  • The US, by contrast, is described as leaning back toward a more “petrostate” model.
  • One implication: Washington may be overcommitting to AI while neglecting other strategic technologies.

Internal Chinese Politics and Instability

Purges show both strength and fragility

  • Crabtree discusses the recent purges of senior Chinese military figures, including former defense ministers.
  • These are officially framed as anti-corruption actions, but it is unclear whether corruption is the real reason.
  • In China’s system, corruption accusations can also be a tool of political control.

Xi Jinping’s military unease

  • The purges suggest Xi is dissatisfied with military progress.
  • That could mean:
    • concern about readiness
    • frustration over performance
    • internal rivalry and palace intrigue
  • So while China appears externally confident, there is meaningful instability inside the system.

Key Takeaways

  • Trump wants a big, symbolic deal; Xi wants stability and strategic room to maneuver.
  • The US-China balance of power is much more equal than a decade ago.
  • Taiwan remains the most dangerous flashpoint.
  • China is unlikely to play a major direct role in the Iran crisis, despite its interests.
  • AI is the main long-term technological battleground, but China also has major advantages in electrification and industrial deployment.
  • China’s internal purges show that confidence and instability are now coexisting inside the same system.

Bottom Line

The episode paints a picture of two unpredictable powers meeting at a time of heightened global risk. Trump’s personal instincts, China’s growing leverage, the Taiwan issue, the Iran war, and the race for technological leadership all make the summit consequential — not because one deal will settle the rivalry, but because both sides are testing how much room they have to shape the next phase of great-power competition.