Overview of The world at war (Rachman Review, Financial Times)
This episode of the Rachman Review is a live panel discussion from the FT Weekend Festival in London about whether the world is sliding into a broader era of conflict. Gideon Rachman is joined by Sir John Sawers, Tom Tugendhat, and Kim Ghattas to discuss the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the risk of escalation, and whether today’s conflicts are isolated—or linked parts of a more dangerous global order.
Main Themes
- The world is not in World War III, but it is unusually unstable.
- The panel rejects the idea that current conflicts are comparable in scale to WWII, but agrees the combination of wars and tensions is alarming.
- Conflicts are interconnected.
- Ukraine, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Sudan, and tensions around Taiwan are presented as linked through energy markets, weapons flows, intelligence, and great-power competition.
- The central question is not just how wars start, but how they end.
- Several speakers stress that peace deals, if they come, may be incomplete or temporary—and that bad endings can sow the seeds of future wars.
Ukraine, Russia, and the Risk of a Wider European War
Sir John Sawers on Ukraine
- Sawers argues that wars eventually end, but says a durable peace with Russia is unlikely while Vladimir Putin remains in power.
- He sees the war as approaching a “hurting stalemate” where both sides begin to feel enough pain that diplomacy becomes possible.
- His most optimistic timeline for a ceasefire is around 2027, and even that is uncertain.
- He warns that any settlement that leaves Putin’s strategic goals intact would effectively turn Ukraine into a Russian satellite.
Tom Tugendhat on the UK and Europe
- Tugendhat argues Britain cannot treat these wars as distant problems:
- Russia has already shown willingness to act aggressively on UK soil.
- Iranian-linked activity and espionage have also affected the UK.
- He says Europe must prepare for high-end warfare, including:
- drone warfare,
- air defense,
- industrial-scale rearmament,
- and protection of critical infrastructure.
- He stresses that the closer a country is to Russia, the more seriously it is taking rearmament.
Shared takeaway on Ukraine
- The panel agrees that:
- the war has become a test of Western staying power,
- Europe has done much of the heavy lifting in supporting Ukraine,
- and the U.S. position remains unpredictable, especially under Trump.
Iran and the Middle East: Kinetic Conflict or Economic Pressure?
Sawers’ view
- Sawers says the American and Israeli assault on Iran was a mistake, but also stresses that the Iranian regime is deeply hostile to Western interests.
- He believes the conflict is shifting from direct military confrontation toward economic pressure, which plays to American strengths.
- He expects the U.S. to remain engaged for now, but eventually to tire of the conflict, as it has in past wars.
Kim Ghattas’ view
- Ghattas, drawing on experience from Beirut and the wider region, says the Middle East still feels highly kinetic, not post-conflict.
- She argues Iran is under rising pressure because it has lost key pillars of regional power:
- Hezbollah is weakened,
- Syria is no longer the same strategic backstop,
- and Gulf states are increasingly angered by Iranian interference.
- She does not expect outright capitulation or neat “regime change,” but rather regime transformation or implosion under pressure.
- Her central point: the decisive pressure point may be inside Iran itself, from a population facing mounting economic and political strain.
Tugendhat’s view
- Tugendhat emphasizes that Iran’s actions have directly affected UK security and European stability.
- He also warns that the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy flows matter hugely for Britain and Europe, especially going into winter.
Energy, Hormuz, and Economic Warfare
Why the Strait of Hormuz matters
- The panel discusses Iran’s ability to threaten shipping through Hormuz as a major lever over global energy markets.
- Tugendhat says the UK and Europe have a strong interest in keeping sea lanes open, especially with low gas storage levels heading into winter.
Ghattas on market adaptation
- Ghattas argues the world is already adapting:
- alternative pipelines are being used,
- non-Gulf supply is helping,
- China has stockpiled oil,
- and the feared price shock has been less severe than expected.
- Still, she says Gulf economies, tourism, flights, and investor confidence have all been hit.
- Her broader warning: the region is not only fighting with missiles and drones; it is also fighting over narratives, legitimacy, and economic endurance.
China, Taiwan, and the Possibility of Great-Power Conflict
Sawers on China
- Sawers says the biggest long-term fear is a U.S.-China war, but he does not think either side wants that outcome.
- He argues China believes:
- the West is in decline,
- Taiwan will eventually fall into China’s orbit,
- and U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan may weaken over time.
- In his view, China may prefer gradual political and economic absorption over outright invasion.
Tugendhat on regional pushback
- Tugendhat adds that countries such as Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia are becoming less reliant on the U.S. and more focused on self-defense.
- He warns that this could raise the risk of incidents or limited clashes in Asia.
- He also raises a longer-term concern: some states may seek their own nuclear deterrents or protections if they no longer trust the U.S. security umbrella.
Key Takeaways
- Wars are not ending cleanly; they are mutating, overlapping, and feeding each other.
- Europe must remain committed to Ukraine and prepare for a more dangerous military environment.
- Iran is under pressure, but not necessarily close to collapse; economic strain may matter more than battlefield gains.
- The UK is not insulated from these conflicts—through security threats, energy prices, and intelligence risks.
- China remains the long game, with Taiwan the most dangerous flashpoint if U.S. resolve erodes.
Bottom Line
The panel’s overall message is sober: the world is not heading toward one single global war, but it is moving through a period where multiple conflicts, energy shocks, proxy struggles, and great-power rivalries are becoming increasingly entangled. The most important task for Western governments, in the panel’s view, is deterrence, resilience, and avoiding settlements that merely postpone the next war.