Overview of Rachman Review — Sudan: inside the world’s worst humanitarian crisis
This Financial Times Rachman Review episode (host Gideon Rachman) examines the 1,000‑day-old war in Sudan: its military dynamics, the catastrophic humanitarian fallout, the October/November mass violence in Al‑Fashir (El Fasher), the role of Sudanese civil society, and the regional and international players whose involvement has both shaped and prolonged the conflict. Guests are Khalid Khair (Confluence Advisory) and Alex de Waal (World Peace Foundation, Tufts University).
Key takeaways
- The UN describes Sudan as the world’s largest humanitarian emergency: roughly 70% of the population (about 30 million people) need aid; famine was declared about 18 months ago and persists.
- Military situation: a “dynamic stalemate” — Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) controls much of the east, centre and north including Khartoum; Rapid Support Forces (RSF) dominate most of Darfur and parts of Kordofan; frontline fighting is intense in the southwest/core defense region, especially in the dry season.
- Al‑Fashir (El Fasher) saw mass atrocities in late 2023 committed primarily by the RSF; credible estimates of deaths vary widely (thousands to tens of thousands; some experts cited ~100,000), with evidence of mass graves and ethnically targeted killings (notably of Zaghawa communities).
- Both sides have committed atrocities; the SAF has persecuted ethnic communities and denied the existence of famine in some areas.
- Local volunteer networks (emergency response rooms, resistance committees, and the cultural norm of nafir) are the primary life-saving actors on the ground, effectively providing services the state no longer delivers.
- Regional rivals and outside patrons (notably the UAE backing RSF, and Egypt/Turkey/parts of the Saudi-led camp aligning differently) have turned Sudan into a proxy arena, complicating peacemaking.
- International engagement has been weak and fragmented: aid cuts (notably to USAID capacities), diplomatic under‑prioritization, and competing Gulf interests have prevented sustained high-level pressure or a coherent settlement process.
- Long-term peace likely requires ending militarism in governance and rebuilding civilian institutions, but achieving that will be politically difficult and needs buy-in from regional powers.
Current state of the conflict
- Characterized as a dynamic stalemate with shifting local territorial gains and losses.
- Fighting intensifies in the dry season (roughly October–June).
- SAF holds capital and much of central/northern Sudan; RSF holds nearly all five Darfur states and parts of Kordofan.
- Governance collapse and widespread insecurity have produced large internal displacement and cross‑border refugee flows.
Al‑Fashir massacre and evidence of atrocities
- Late October 2023 assault on Al‑Fashir produced mass violence described by UN teams as a “crime scene.”
- Evidence includes satellite imagery (mass graves, patterns of houses burned/attacked) and RSF social‑media footage showing targeted, often ethnically‑based killings and torture.
- Death toll estimates remain uncertain due to lack of governance and forensic access; guests discussed figures ranging from thousands to potentially ~100,000 in the period around the town’s fall.
- RSF publicly claimed victims were combatants; observers reject this given civilian demographics and documented targeting.
Humanitarian crisis and aid situation
- Famine was declared (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) and continues — millions face food insecurity.
- Rough figures discussed: Sudan population ~46 million; roughly half to 70% needing food aid; millions internally displaced and several million refugees.
- Health services have largely collapsed across much of the country.
- International assistance has been undermined by funding and institutional cuts (e.g., reductions in USAID capacity and conflict stabilization offices), reducing humanitarian reach and institutional memory.
Local response: emergency response rooms and civil society
- Emergency response rooms are locally organized networks (rooted in nafir — communal mobilization — and 2018 resistance committees) that have converted from protest networks into life‑saving mutual aid actors.
- These groups evacuate civilians, provide basic services, document abuses, and may be the main factor keeping some form of social cohesion amid fragmentation.
- They face targeting by both SAF and RSF but continue to operate and could be a foundation for civic reconstruction.
Regional and international dimensions
- UAE is widely accused (denies it) of supplying weapons, finance and other support to the RSF; Egypt, Turkey, and parts of the Saudi camp are seen as backing SAF or other actors.
- Sudan is embedded in broader Gulf/Red Sea rivalries: UAE vs. Saudi/Riyadh camp, plus overlapping strategic concerns involving Israel, Yemen, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia.
- Western engagement has been tepid: attention and leverage are low relative to other crises (e.g., Ukraine, Gaza); attempts such as the Quad (US, Egypt, Saudi, UAE) produced limited progress.
- Political calculations and commercial ties between Western states and Gulf partners limit pressure on patrons who sustain combatants in Sudan.
Prospects for peace and what a settlement would need
- Historical pattern: Sudanese wars typically end through negotiated settlements, not decisive military victory — but past agreements have sometimes sown the seeds of future conflict.
- Durable peace requires removing militarism from politics: restoring civilian rule, creating inclusive political institutions, and adopting fiscal federalism so resources are shared, not centralized.
- Any viable settlement must address hyper‑local grievances as well as national/regional dimensions — top‑down deals that ignore local dynamics risk recreating violence.
- Regional patrons must be part of a settlement; that demands higher diplomatic priority from the US and Europe, and willingness to pressure or incentivize Gulf actors.
Notable quotes and characterizations
- “Dynamic stalemate” — describes shifting frontlines without decisive victory.
- The RSF displays “a spirit of cruelty” and a “hybrid of a transnational mercenary enterprise and a revolutionary nihilistic spirit.” (Alex de Waal)
- Emergency response rooms are “the only thing…keeping people alive” and “might be the only thing keeping what we know as Sudan together.” (Khalid Khair)
- “The international system has become very immune to the scale of violence” — explains muted global reaction.
Actionable recommendations (implicit in the discussion)
- Restore and increase humanitarian funding and institutional capacity (rebuild USAID/response capacity, fund local partners).
- Support, protect, and channel resources to local emergency response networks and civil society (security, funding, logistics).
- Push for access and forensic investigations into alleged mass atrocities (satellite analysis, on‑the‑ground documentation, independent inquiries).
- Re‑elevate Sudan in diplomatic priorities: engage the UAE and Saudi Arabia directly and coherently (Western governments must be willing to link Gulf interests with pressure to stop support for combatants).
- Design peace initiatives that combine regional engagement with granular, local conflict resolution and institutional reform (avoid purely theatrical or top‑heavy deals).
- Advocate for a political pathway that dismantles militarized governance and promotes civilian, federal, and inclusive institutions.
Who should listen to this episode
- Policymakers and diplomats focused on the Horn of Africa and Gulf diplomacy.
- Humanitarian professionals and analysts tracking famine, displacement, and mass atrocity.
- Anyone seeking a concise, expert overview of how local, national and regional dynamics combine to make Sudan one of the gravest but under‑reported crises in the world today.
Credits: host Gideon Rachman; guests Khalid Khair (Confluence Advisory) and Alex de Waal (World Peace Foundation).