Summary of Lebanon peace deal: can it hold?

Overview of Lebanon peace deal: can it hold?

This episode of the Rachman Review examines the new U.S.-brokered trilateral framework between Lebanon, Israel, and the United States and asks whether it can realistically end the fighting and stabilize Lebanon. Guests Rula Khalaf and Andrew England argue that while the agreement is diplomatically significant, its chances of success are slim because it depends on disarming Hezbollah — something Lebanon’s fractured political system is unlikely to achieve without triggering deeper sectarian conflict.

Main Takeaways

• The peace deal is symbolically important but likely unenforceable.

  • Lebanon and Israel have reached agreements before, but this one faces the same core obstacle: Hezbollah’s military power and political role inside Lebanon.
  • The framework ties an Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah’s disarmament, but the Lebanese government lacks the power to make that happen.

• Hezbollah remains too embedded in Lebanese society to be removed by force.

  • Hezbollah is not just a militia; it is also a political party and a major Shia constituency.
  • Any attempt to disarm it by force could destabilize Lebanon’s sectarian balance and risk internal strife.

• Iran is central to the conflict’s future.

  • The guests argue that Iran has become more supportive of Hezbollah after the broader U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
  • Hezbollah’s resilience reflects the depth of its military and ideological ties to Tehran.

• Israel has not achieved a clear military victory.

  • Despite major strikes, killing Hezbollah’s leadership, and entering southern Lebanon, Israel has not stopped rocket and drone fire or eliminated Hezbollah as a fighting force.
  • Israeli public support for the war remains tied to security concerns, but officials are wary of being dragged back into a long Lebanese quagmire.

• Lebanon’s internal system is the core barrier to lasting peace.

  • The country’s sectarian power-sharing structure makes a durable settlement extremely hard.
  • Any solution would require either:
    • integrating Hezbollah into the Lebanese army, or
    • granting the Shia community more political power.
  • Neither option is politically acceptable to other major Lebanese communities.

Regional Dynamics

Iran’s leverage

• Lebanon has become part of Iran’s broader bargaining position in talks with the U.S. and regional rivals.
• Tehran is unlikely to abandon Hezbollah because doing so would signal weakness and weaken its “axis of resistance.”

U.S.-Israel tensions

• The conflict has created friction between Washington and Jerusalem.
• Donald Trump, according to the discussion, wants the Iran deal and broader regional stability to hold, which pushes him to pressure Netanyahu to limit escalation.
• However, the U.S. still views Hezbollah as a terrorist threat, so that tension is unresolved.

Lebanon as a regional “football”

• Lebanon is portrayed as a battleground for competing external interests: Iran, Israel, the U.S., and Gulf states.
• The guests stress that Lebanon’s domestic problems cannot be solved until the wider regional confrontation eases.

Lebanon’s Condition and Outlook

• The state is surviving, but barely.

  • Lebanon can likely continue to exist as a state, but its economy is extremely weak and cannot absorb repeated shocks.
  • The country is already burdened by mass displacement, including Lebanese civilians and large numbers of Syrian refugees.

• Resilience has a limit.

  • Lebanese society is known for resilience, entrepreneurial recovery, and remittances from abroad.
  • But the episode emphasizes that “resilience” has also meant prolonged endurance of instability, not true recovery.

• Near-term peace looks unlikely.

  • The discussion ends on a pessimistic note: Lebanon may muddle through, but there is little sign of a meaningful revival in the near or medium term.

Notable Insight

• Rula Khalaf’s core argument is that there is no easy way to disarm Hezbollah without paying a political price that Lebanon’s other communities are unwilling to accept.
• Andrew England’s key point is that Hezbollah’s resurgence shows how tightly bound it remains to Iran, and how difficult it will be to separate Lebanese sovereignty from regional power struggles.

Bottom Line

The episode concludes that the new Lebanon-Israel-U.S. agreement is a fragile first step at best. Without a broader regional de-escalation and a political settlement inside Lebanon that addresses sectarian power and Hezbollah’s role, the deal is unlikely to hold.