Overview of Iran’s growing strategic ambitions
This episode of the Rachman Review features Gideon Rachman in conversation with Vali Nasr, professor at Johns Hopkins and author of Iran’s Grand Strategy, about how Iran is using the current regional conflict to pursue a far more ambitious strategic agenda. Nasr argues that Iran’s core goal has not changed — it still wants to secure itself against U.S. pressure — but its tactics have shifted dramatically. Rather than merely trying to survive, Tehran now believes it can shape the regional order: force concessions from Washington, weaken the U.S. military footprint in the Middle East, and reassert dominance over the Persian Gulf.
Main arguments
Iran’s grand strategy remains defensive, but more aggressive in execution
- Iran still sees the United States as its primary threat.
- The leadership’s overriding priority remains regime survival and preventing U.S. encirclement or regime change.
- What has changed is confidence: Iran now believes it has leverage and can translate battlefield survival into strategic gains.
Tehran sees the war as a turning point
- Nasr says Iran has learned that U.S. military pressure alone is not enough to break it.
- The ability to disrupt or control the Strait of Hormuz has become a major strategic asset.
- In Tehran’s view, simply surviving intense attacks is itself a victory.
Iran’s demands are broader than economic relief
Tehran is no longer just seeking sanctions relief or economic breathing room. According to Nasr, it is pressing for:
- an end to U.S. threats and military pressure,
- withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region,
- compensation or “war reparations,”
- unfreezing of Iranian assets,
- lifting of sanctions,
- and recognition of its control over key maritime chokepoints.
What Iran thinks it can achieve
A new balance of power in the Gulf
- Iran now believes it can dominate the Persian Gulf, or at least force others to accept its primacy.
- Nasr describes Tehran’s outlook as one in which the Gulf is increasingly seen as an “Iranian lake.”
- Control of shipping lanes gives Iran leverage that is more practical, in its view, than the nuclear program ever was.
Pressure on the U.S. security umbrella
- Iran is trying to convince Gulf Arab states that the U.S. cannot reliably protect them.
- It wants regional states to reconsider dependence on Washington and diversify toward other powers and partnerships.
- This could reduce the cohesion of the U.S.-backed containment system around Iran.
Regional implications
Gulf states are reassessing alliances
- Nasr suggests that Saudi Arabia and others are increasingly unsure about U.S. reliability.
- Talk of alternative alignments — including ties involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey — reflects this uncertainty more than a fully formed military pact.
- Iran welcomes any fragmentation of a unified Arab front.
The Abraham Accords and regional security are under pressure
- Iran sees rival regional arrangements as weakening U.S. influence.
- At the same time, some Gulf states may respond by seeking closer ties with Israel, creating a more complicated and unstable regional chessboard.
Israel’s position
A strategic setback for Israel
- Nasr argues Israel has failed to achieve its goal of neutralizing Iran, even with U.S. support.
- Iran has survived, and in some respects emerged stronger.
- Israel’s preferred military option against Iran now looks much less credible.
A more enduring confrontation
- The conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to continue as a long-term rivalry.
- Nasr does not see Israel and Iran reaching an easy détente in the near future.
- Both sides now view the other as a major existential threat.
U.S. policy limitations
Washington appears reactive and underprepared
- Nasr says the U.S. has not fully absorbed the consequences of the war.
- He argues there is a lack of strategic imagination in the West about how much the regional order has changed.
- Rebuilding the old pressure campaign against Iran may be far harder than American policymakers assume.
The U.S. is losing control over regional dynamics
- The episode suggests Washington is increasingly unable to shape either Iran’s behavior or Israel’s.
- That diminishes the U.S. role as a stabilizing force in the Middle East.
Bottom line
Nasr’s core thesis is that Iran is no longer just trying to endure U.S. pressure — it is trying to turn battlefield resilience into a new regional order. Its ambition is to secure itself, extract economic and political concessions, reduce U.S. military presence, and establish itself as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf. The result, in his view, is a more fragmented Middle East, a weaker American security architecture, and a prolonged strategic rivalry with Israel.