Impeachments, Iran and the presidency: what’s next after the midterms?

Summary of Impeachments, Iran and the presidency: what’s next after the midterms?

by Financial Times

27m•November 4, 2026
Listen to Episode

Overview of Impeachments, Iran and the presidency: what’s next after the midterms?

In this Rachman Review episode, Gideon Rachman and Edward Luce assess the fallout from a sweeping Democratic midterm victory and what it means for Donald Trump’s second term. The conversation focuses on Trump’s weakened political position, the likelihood of congressional investigations and possible impeachments, the shifting politics around Iran and Israel, and how both parties may reshape themselves ahead of the 2028 presidential race.

Main takeaways

  • The midterms were a major rebuke to Trump

    • Democrats not only won decisively, but also expanded their control of Congress.
    • Trump’s attempt to make the election a referendum on himself backfired.
    • His immediate reaction was subdued, suggesting he understood the scale of the defeat.

  • Trump remains powerful despite losing Congress

    • He still controls the presidency, foreign policy, the Justice Department, the FBI, and intelligence agencies.
    • Luce argues this creates a volatile “wild ride” for the next two years.
    • The main concern is not just political damage, but Trump’s increasingly unpredictable behavior.

  • Iran was a central issue in the election

    • Luce says the war with Iran, along with corruption, helped define the anti-Trump mood.
    • Trump downplayed any imminent new attack on Iran, saying conditions were currently favorable to him.
    • Both hosts stress that Trump’s mood can shift rapidly and should not be taken at face value.

  • Congress may target Pete Hegseth first

    • Luce suggests that if Democrats move against Trump allies, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is a likely target.
    • Possible impeachment grounds mentioned include misuse of power, unlawful strikes, firing legal advisers, purges, and the renaming of bases.
    • Democrats may see Hegseth as a politically easier target than Trump himself.

  • Trump’s relationship with Netanyahu may become more complicated

    • The episode highlights shifting U.S. attitudes toward Israel.
    • Trump’s warning that U.S. aid to Israel could end was read as a sign he is tracking political tides.
    • The hosts discuss a major setback for AIPAC and growing generational change among Jewish American voters.

What this means for the Democratic Party

  • The victory gives both wings of the party room to claim success

    • Progressives and centrists alike can argue that the result validates their approach.
    • Luce says the common thread was anti-Trump sentiment rather than a clear ideological mandate.

  • Investigations are likely, impeachment is possible but not yet preferred

    • Democrats are expected to launch high-profile inquiries into:
      • Trump and his family
      • Elon Musk
      • the unreleased Epstein files
      • corruption in the administration
    • Party leadership currently thinks impeaching Trump again would be strategically unwise.
    • That said, a more aggressive Trump response could shift the calculus.

  • The party’s future remains wide open

    • The midterms do not settle the Democratic presidential contest.
    • They may actually intensify a free-for-all between progressive and centrist contenders.

What this means for the Republican Party

  • Trumpism is still dominant, but the post-Trump fight has begun

    • Ron DeSantis is presented as one early figure trying to define a non-Trump version of populist conservatism.
    • J.D. Vance is described as trapped: he needs Trump’s support, but the electorate just rejected Trumpism.
    • Marco Rubio is also discussed as a possible 2028 contender who could distance himself more easily.

  • Traditional Republicans are increasingly sidelined

    • The old “country club” Republican establishment is portrayed as largely gone.
    • The future GOP may be Trumpism without Trump:
      • nationalist
      • populist
      • protectionist
      • anti-woke
    • This could lead to a fragmented internal struggle over who inherits the movement.

Foreign policy and Trump’s remaining power

  • Trump still has wide freedom of action abroad

    • Even after the midterms, foreign governments should not assume he is constrained.
    • Congress could theoretically intervene, but is unlikely to want to look anti-war.

  • Ukraine, Russia, China, and Cuba are key watchpoints

    • Upcoming talks with Ukrainian and Russian envoys could test Trump’s approach.
    • He may also meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin later in the month.
    • Luce’s most notable foreign-policy speculation is that Marco Rubio may try to run in 2028 and use Cuba as a signature issue, since that would allow him to sell himself as a dealmaker and a strong Trump ally.

Broader interpretation

  • The election was mostly an economic referendum

    • Luce and Rachman caution against over-interpreting the results as a pure defense of democracy or constitutional order.
    • Cost of living, inflation, tariffs, and economic anxiety mattered enormously.
    • Still, they argue it was not just about the economy; Trump’s style, rhetoric, and tactics also contributed to the backlash.

  • Immigration politics shifted, especially among Hispanic voters

    • The hosts discuss how many Hispanic voters support immigration control, but reject aggressive enforcement tactics and demeaning rhetoric.
    • The takeaway is that voters want border enforcement without harassment or racialized policing.

  • Trump may be losing his grip on the presidency

    • Luce suggests Trump is becoming more erratic and less engaged with day-to-day governance.
    • He compares Trump’s posture to someone increasingly “checking out” of the presidency.
    • Trump’s immunity from prosecution and continued ability to shape events make him dangerous even if politically weakened.

Final thought

The episode’s core argument is that Trump suffered a major political defeat, but not a total loss of power. Democrats gained momentum and leverage, yet they now face a volatile president, looming internal party debates, and an uncertain path to 2028. The real test, the hosts suggest, will be whether this midterm wave becomes a turning point—or just another chapter in an increasingly unstable American political era.