Overview of David Miliband: ‘Peacemaking has gone into retreat’
In this Financial Times Rachman Review episode, Gideon Rachman speaks with David Miliband, former UK foreign secretary and president of the International Rescue Committee (IRC), about the surge in global conflict and the parallel retreat of diplomacy, aid, and international cooperation. Miliband argues that the world is entering a period of “forever war” in several regions, with humanitarian needs rising faster than the systems meant to absorb them. The conversation ranges from the Middle East and Sudan to Ukraine, aid cuts, Europe’s role, and the risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Main Themes
A world of escalating conflict
Miliband says the current moment is defined by conflict spreading and hardening, especially in:
- Yemen / the Arabian Gulf, where escalation risks are rising
- Sudan, which he treats as a prime example of a war sustained by external sponsors
- Ukraine, where intensified Russian bombardment may create further displacement
- A wider belt of instability stretching from the Sahel to Afghanistan/Pakistan
He warns that military power is being overused while diplomatic tools are weakening.
Humanitarian crisis is deepening
He frames the global situation as a major humanitarian emergency:
- 65 conflicts globally, including 8 interstate conflicts — a post-WWII record
- 300 million people in humanitarian need
- 120 million people displaced by conflict
His central point: the world now has “more shocks, fewer shock absorbers.” Aid cuts, climate stress, and political fragmentation are reducing the capacity to respond.
Aid cuts are causing real damage
Miliband strongly criticizes the sharp decline in international aid, especially from the United States:
- Total humanitarian aid has fallen by roughly 50% in the last year and a half
- IRC has lost support for major programs, including education, health, and refugee services
- He says about 8 million IRC clients have lost services, and 2 million have lost all services IRC had been providing
- IRC has had to cut around 6,000 staff from roughly 18,000–19,000
He argues that aid should be judged by concrete outcomes, not broad slogans about spending percentages.
Diplomacy, Power, and the New World Disorder
“Peacemaking has gone into retreat”
One of Miliband’s strongest claims is that diplomacy itself has weakened:
- Peace processes are less robust
- External sponsors of conflicts are less pressured
- Multilateral institutions have less leverage than before
He says the international system is increasingly unable to manage wars within states, especially where outside powers fuel the fighting.
The United States is no longer the global anchor
Miliband describes a major shift away from the post-1945 order:
- America is still indispensable, but no longer able or willing to underwrite the world system in the same way
- He sees the weaponization of interdependence in places like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea
- He argues the old, U.S.-led order is in “serious retreat”
He also suggests the world is not truly multipolar in a stable sense; instead, it is more transactional, fluid, and chaotic.
Middle powers are becoming more important
He sees the strongest example of coordinated middle-power action in support for Ukraine, including:
- European countries
- Canada
- South Korea
He suggests these states should play a bigger role in creating new stabilizing arrangements, rather than relying solely on a weakened U.S.-led framework.
Europe and the UK
Europe can still matter
Miliband argues the EU still has agency and could be a major stabilizing force if it chooses:
- It can act quickly when necessary, as shown by its response to Ukraine
- It remains a major trade power
- It could help shape new political and security arrangements
The UK needs a strategic reset
He says Britain should think beyond narrow post-Brexit negotiations and work toward a broader reset with the EU:
- Defense and security cooperation should be the “trust builder”
- The goal should be a structured long-term relationship, not just piecemeal fixes
- He sees political instability and underperformance in the UK as consequences of Brexit and domestic fragmentation
AI: A new global risk that needs multilateral guardrails
Why he takes the threat seriously
Miliband says AI has the power to do as much harm as good, and he takes warnings from figures like Geoffrey Hinton seriously. His concern is not abstract:
- AI can be misused for surveillance, weapons, and destabilization
- Conflict zones and fragile states could be especially dangerous environments for misuse
He wants regulation before disaster
His preferred approach is precautionary:
- Build safeguards now, not after a major incident
- Use multiple layers of control: within companies, among democracies, and globally
- He favors models closer to chemical/biological weapons control than to slow-moving nuclear diplomacy
He warns that international cooperation may only come after a major AI catastrophe — something like a “Chernobyl-style incident.”
Key Takeaways
- The world is experiencing a record level of conflict and displacement.
- Humanitarian need is rising, while aid and diplomacy are weakening.
- Miliband sees a global shift from a U.S.-anchored order to a more fragmented, unstable system.
- Middle powers and regional coalitions may be the best hope for stabilizing the world.
- Europe and the UK should deepen strategic cooperation, especially on security.
- AI governance needs urgent international guardrails before a major disaster forces action.
Notable Insight
“More shocks, fewer shock absorbers” — Miliband’s phrase for a world where crises are multiplying faster than the institutions designed to absorb them.
If you'd like, I can also turn this into a shorter executive summary or a bullet-point briefing note.