Overview of The Powers That Be — episode: "The Dems’ Great Shutdown Surrender"
This episode (host Peter Hamby, guest Leanne Caldwell) explains why the longest U.S. government shutdown is likely to end this week, how a group of Democratic senators and one independent broke with their caucus and base to cut a reopening deal with Republicans, and what the move means for Senate Democratic leadership — especially Chuck Schumer. The deal would reopen government funding through January but does not include the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidy extension that motivated many Democrats and activists.
Key points and main takeaways
- A bipartisan group (seven Senate Democrats + Independent Angus King) quietly backed a funding deal to reopen the government this week; several (Jeanne Shaheen, Maggie Hassan, Angus King were named) did media rounds urging an end to the shutdown.
- The bill likely passed the Senate and then needs House approval and the president’s signature. Speaker Mike Johnson called the House back aiming for a vote by Wednesday/Thursday; the administration supports the bill.
- The deal does NOT include an extension of ACA premium subsidies — the issue that sparked much Democratic resistance — prompting anger from the progressive base.
- Republicans (and Donald Trump) were unlikely to give substantive concessions tied to the shutdown; the breakaway Democrats concluded prolonging the shutdown was causing unnecessary public pain (SNAP delays, furloughed federal workers, flight disruptions) with little payoff.
- Senator John Thune (R) promised a December vote on ACA subsidies; some Democrats trust that commitment, others view it skeptically. Major complication: abortion policy and the Hyde Amendment could block a clean subsidy extension.
- Political fallout: Chuck Schumer faces increased internal and base dissatisfaction; calls for his ouster are growing on the progressive left, but no clear, willing replacement has emerged. Many Democrats expect leadership decisions to hinge on 2026 midterm results.
Topics discussed
- Shutdown mechanics and timeline: Senate passage, House vote, presidential signature; expected funding through January.
- Why certain Democrats broke ranks: former governors’ distaste for shutdowns, practical concerns for constituents and federal workers, not being up for reelection/retiring.
- Trust and leverage: can Republicans be trusted to follow through with a December vote on ACA subsidies?
- Abortion/Hyde Amendment entanglement: Hyde restrictions could derail subsidy legislation even if a vote occurs.
- Schumer’s leadership: internal frustration centers on his indecisiveness (knew of talks but voted against the bill), communication/cover for members, and uncertain prospects post-2026.
- Damage control strategies: Democrats trying to pass appropriations that would blunt pain in any future shutdown (e.g., bills that secure SNAP, pay for legislative staff).
Notable quotes and framing
- “Angus King is absolutely right. Donald Trump wasn't going to give them anything.” — used to summarize why the bipartisan breakaway occurred.
- Schumer “liked to have it both ways”: he was kept informed about talks but did not vote for the deal, frustrating members who wanted clearer leadership and cover.
- A senior Democratic aide: “the chances of him not being leader before the 2026 elections have increased” after recent events — signaling real internal concern.
Political implications and outlook
- Short term: Government likely reopens through January, easing immediate public and constituent pain.
- Medium term: Democrats have reasserted health care messaging (positioning themselves as the party fighting for ACA affordability), but the omission of subsidies hurts credibility with the base.
- December: Watch for a Senate vote on ACA subsidies promised by Thune; success is uncertain due to GOP internal divisions and the Hyde/abortion issue.
- January/2026: Another funding clash is possible. Democrats are trying to pass targeted appropriations to reduce the leverage of future shutdowns. Schumer’s leadership may come under a stronger challenge depending on midterm results and who wins progressive primaries now calling for his removal.
What to watch next (actionable items)
- Whether the House passes the funding bill and whether the president signs it (reopen timing).
- December: whether the promised Senate vote on ACA subsidies actually occurs and its terms (and whether the House will take matching action).
- Hyde Amendment / abortion carve-outs in any subsidy extension negotiations.
- Moves within the Senate Democratic caucus: public calls for Schumer’s resignation, possible candidates (Brian Schatz, Catherine Cortez Masto mentioned), and any formal leadership challenges after 2026.
- Appropriations actions between now and January aimed at insulating SNAP, federal staff pay, and other services from shutdown impact.
Bottom line
Senators who prioritized immediate relief and governance over leverage won a short-term reopening. But by decoupling reopening from ACA subsidy extension, they’ve amplified tensions between the party’s leadership, swing/moderate senators, and a vocal progressive base — leaving both policy outcomes (subsidies, abortion restrictions) and Schumer’s leadership status unsettled heading into December and the 2026 cycle.