Overview of Marchand, Round 2!
This episode of The Varsity (host John Aranda) features sports media reporter Andrew Marchand. They discuss current shifts in sports media rights and distribution — how the NFL and MLB are packaging marquee windows, how streamers (Amazon, Netflix, YouTube, Apple) are being courted or seeded, the Nielsen ratings changes that lift sports viewership numbers, and the practical/logistical consequences for fans and broadcasters. The conversation covers Thanksgiving NFL scheduling, Amazon/Netflix strategies, the recent MLB rights deals (ESPN, NBC/Peacock, Netflix), and Netflix’s hire of Elle Duncan.
Key topics covered
- Thanksgiving NFL scheduling and ratings expectations (Cowboys vs. Chiefs; Packers vs. Lions)
- Nielsen methodology changes (out-of-home counting, use of big data) and how they’ve boosted sports ratings
- Streamers’ strategy: buying marquee events to win fans and subscriptions (Amazon, Netflix, YouTube)
- MLB’s 2024–27 rights reshuffle: ESPN’s hold/strategy, NBC/Peacock and Netflix deals, money math
- Who “won” the MLB negotiations (Andrew: ESPN/Jimmy Pitaro emerges well)
- Netflix hiring Elle Duncan and what that signals about streamer investment in on-air talent
- Production questions: in-house vs. freelance/legacy broadcast production and quality concerns
- Fan UX problems: fragmentation, blackouts, and the need for simplicity and scarcity
Main takeaways
- NFL holiday windows are being intentionally filled with marquee matchups (Cowboys–Chiefs, Packers–Lions) to maximize eyeballs in premium windows. Expect record or near-record viewing, helped by Nielsen counting more viewers (especially out-of-home and via big data).
- Nielsen changes this year produce uplift across sports ratings — a structural boost, not just one-off spikes.
- The NFL is deliberately seeding streamers with strong matchups to make new rights partners (Amazon, YouTube, Netflix) feel successful and “addicted” to NFL content; that helps maintain competitive bidding long-term.
- MLB’s recent rights sales split premium inventory among ESPN, NBC/Peacock and Netflix. Total dollars this cycle are lower than if ESPN had kept everything, but MLB now has a broader set of deep-pocket bidders lined up for the next round.
- ESPN retained important pieces and out-of-market rights that help its direct-to-consumer push (and is seen as a relative winner).
- Netflix paid modestly (roughly $50M for three marquee events) — enough to seed interest but not the premium fees of main packages.
- Fragmentation remains a fan pain point (you may need multiple services to follow one team). Marchand emphasizes the need for simplicity for fans and scarcity for rights partners.
- Production quality matters. Streamers are mostly relying on legacy broadcasters or outside producers (CBS, NBC) when launching events; that’s important for fan acceptance.
- Netflix hiring Elle Duncan as an exclusive on-air talent signals an escalation: streamers are now competing for top broadcast talent and building recognizable on-air faces.
Notable quotes
- “They want the streamers to be successful.” — on why the NFL gives top matchups to new streaming partners.
- “Simplicity for the fans, scarcity for their partners.” — Marchand’s prescription for making sports rights work long-term.
- “Scarcity wins the day.” — on why NFL viewership is consistently dominant.
Data & money notes (figures discussed)
- Nielsen updates this year have added viewers and resulted in higher ratings across sports.
- ESPN committed ~$1.65 billion over three years (for the rights it kept).
- NBC/Peacock + Netflix together are paying roughly $750M for their MLB pieces over three years — a ~$900M gap versus the full package ESPN opted out of.
- Netflix reportedly paid ≈$50M for three MLB events (home run derby, Field of Dreams, and select games).
Predictions & quick calls
- John Aranda predicted Cowboys–Chiefs ≈ 48.2M viewers; Andrew picked over 50.5M (he favored 50.5M).
- John predicted Packers–Lions could be the second most-watched regular season NFL game historically (given teams + Nielsen changes + Tubi streaming).
- Marchand forecasts continued bidding frenzy at decade’s end as NFL rights re-open, with YouTube/Netflix/Apple/Amazon all potential players (YouTube may have a marginal advantage over Netflix if it uses a free-with-YouTube distribution approach).
Implications for fans and industry
- Fans: expect more fragmentation — multiple streaming and broadcast partners for the same sport; searching across apps/networks can be confusing. Legacy blackouts still complicate MLB access.
- Broadcasters/streamers: they must balance marquee event allocations (to seed relationships) with long-term package design; production capability and talent hiring become competitive differentiators.
- Rights market: more bidders (big tech + legacy) should raise prices in the long run, but fragmentation and short-term deals can reduce per-cycle totals.
Actionable recommendations (for watchers, media buyers, and fans)
- Fans: subscribe where your team’s main regional and national packages live (and consider YouTube TV or aggregated bundles that simplify discovery).
- Media buyers/networks: treat streamers as long-term strategic partners — giving them marquee product now can drive future bidding and platform stickiness.
- Leagues: prioritize simplicity for fans (clear paths to watch) and think about limiting partner fragmentation to protect scarcity — which preserves event value.
Where to follow more
- Andrew Marchand’s twice-weekly sports media podcast at andrewmarchand.com (recommended by the hosts).
- The Varsity newsletter and Puck’s coverage for deeper reads on media rights and contract developments.
If you want the highlights at-a-glance: Thanksgiving NFL windows are being stacked deliberately for big viewership and to help streamers; Nielsen changes boosted ratings; MLB’s rights were split (ESPN held the best long-term play for DTC), and Netflix’s talent hire signals streamers moving from experimentation to serious sports network building.