Summary of Klobuchar’s Senate Succession

Overview of The Powers That Be — Klobuchar’s Senate Succession

This episode of Puck’s daily podcast The Powers That Be (host Peter Hamby, guest Abby Livingston) examines a destabilized moment in Minnesota Democratic politics: Governor Tim Walz stepping back, Senator Amy Klobuchar apparently preparing a surprise run for governor, Tina Smith retiring from the Senate, and an open Democratic Senate primary (Angie Craig vs. Peggy Flanagan) being played out amid ICE raids, protests in Minneapolis, and a broader national debate over immigration policy.

Key takeaways

• Amy Klobuchar is widely expected to run for governor (likely a near-term announcement). Her entry is seen as a stabilizing move for Democrats in a chaotic Minnesota moment.
• Klobuchar’s prosecutorial background, statewide appeal, and reputation for competence make her the party’s preferred fix for recent scandals and instability.
• Klobuchar running for governor would create a Senate vacancy the governor fills by appointment — a lever that could be used to resolve intra-party tensions over the open U.S. Senate seat.
• The Democratic primary for Tina Smith’s seat, mainly between Angie Craig (moderate) and Peggy Flanagan (progressive), is being defined by immigration and local ICE controversies. That dynamic could complicate the eventual general election.
• Most handicappers still rate the Minnesota Senate seat as “likely Democratic,” but it is not immune to Republican challenges; Minnesota remains competitive in parts outside the Twin Cities.

Background and political context

• Minnesota has a history of producing outsized national political stories and personalities (e.g., Humphrey, Mondale, Wellstone, Ventura, Franken, Klobuchar, Ilhan Omar).
• Key destabilizers recently: the George Floyd killing and its aftermath in Minneapolis, the assassination of a state House Speaker last summer, the welfare fraud scandal that prompted ICE action, Tim Walz’s surprise decision not to run for reelection, and Tina Smith’s Senate retirement.
• The combination of those crises has created what the hosts call “a real state of crisis in Minnesota politics for the Democrats,” even if the state overall is still typically competitive-leaning Democratic.

Amy Klobuchar: why she’s likely and why she matters

• Why she might run:
  • Sources and insiders expect an announcement soon; her entry was not pre-announced and surprised many.
  • Klobuchar is viewed as a steady, competent leader who could stabilize the party after recent turmoil.
  • National Democrats would prefer a proven, vote-getting statewide Democrat at the top of the ticket to protect the open Senate seat.
• What makes her uniquely qualified:
  • Former prosecutor and Hennepin County attorney — seen as credible on investigations, governance, and restoring trust after state scandals.
  • She’s a high-performing statewide vote-getter and the most prominent Democratic political figure in Minnesota.
  • As a federal official, she is less directly tied to the state-level controversies and can present a “clean” problem-solving face.
• Tradeoffs for her:
  • Running for governor would curtail near-term presidential prospects and require giving up a Senate seat that national Democrats want to hold.
  • She appears motivated by the sense that Minnesota needs stabilizing leadership now.

The open Senate race and how ICE/immigration is reshaping it

• Main contenders:
  • Angie Craig — framed as pragmatic/moderate, has a history of seeking wins in mixed or Republican-leaning districts.
  • Peggy Flanagan — lieutenant governor, more progressive and active on-the-ground in organizing around ICE protests.
• ICE and immigration dynamics:
  • Recent ICE raids (targeting the Somali community in this context) and protests in Minneapolis have made immigration a live and local issue.
  • Within the Democratic coalition there’s tension: some progressives push hard against ICE (and seen activism on the ground), while moderates and many strategists warn against “abolish ICE” framing because it can be politically damaging in a general election.
  • Both Craig and Flanagan have engaged publicly on immigration; Craig has confronted Republicans visibly and supported impeachment efforts in related contexts.
• Primary implications:
  • The primary may be abrasive given strong networks and loyalties; national Democrats are wary of costly intra-party fights.
  • If Klobuchar becomes governor and appoints a Senate replacement, that appointment could defuse or reshape the primary dynamics entirely.

Electoral outlook and strategic implications

• Current rating: Most handicappers list the Minnesota Senate seat as likely Democratic — favorable but not a lock.
• Republican prospects:
  • GOP remains organizationally strong in places (state legislature influence, House GOP leadership via Tom Emmer).
  • The Twin Cities metro is demographically dominant and leans more liberal — the region is crucial for Democratic statewide success.
  • Republicans will still contest the state and see value in investing, but Democrats retain advantages statewide for now.
• National strategy considerations:
  • Democrats hope whoever wins the primary can win without expensive outside intervention so resources can be spent elsewhere.
  • Messaging on immigration will be a balancing act: energize progressive voters without alienating moderates and swing voters.

Notable quotes / characterizations from the episode

• “This is a real state of crisis in Minnesota politics for the Democrats.”
• Klobuchar described as “probably one of the most competent Democrats on the scene” and “the greatest vote getter in Democratic Minnesota politics.”
• The situation framed as a “first world problem” for Democrats: two strong women candidates for the same Senate seat and many allies forced to choose.

What to watch next (actionable items)

• Klobuchar’s official announcement timing and whether she files for governor.
• Whether and when Klobuchar (if elected governor) resigns the Senate seat and who she appoints — that appointment will reshape the Senate race.
• Developments in the ICE raids/protests and any policy or criminal investigations that could change local public sentiment.
• How the Craig-Flanagan primary unfolds: messaging on immigration, outside spending, and endorsements (notably, Klobuchar and Tina Smith have stayed out of endorsements so far).
• National party resource allocation — does Minnesota remain a spending priority for either side?

Bottom line

Minnesota is at a politically volatile moment. Amy Klobuchar’s likely gubernatorial run is viewed as a potential stabilizer who could not only help manage immediate scandals but also influence who occupies the open Senate seat. Meanwhile, the Democratic primary (Craig vs. Flanagan) is being shaped by intense local anger over ICE activity and immigration politics — a debate that could matter in both the nomination fight and the general election. Overall, the state remains competitive but leans Democratic; the coming months (announcements, appointments, and primary dynamics) will determine whether Democrats can consolidate or hand Republicans an opening.