Hollywood’s Early Oscars Forecast

Summary of Hollywood’s Early Oscars Forecast

by Puck | Audacy

21m•November 20, 2025
Listen to Episode

Overview of Hollywood’s Early Oscars Forecast

This episode of The Powers That Be (host Peter Hamby, guest Matt Bellany) walks listeners through the very early stages of the Oscar campaign season. Bellany explains how the race is already in full swing—festivals and fall screenings have set the table, PR teams are courting Academy voters, and studios are running targeted efforts to secure nominations ahead of the January ballots.

Key takeaways

  • Oscar campaigning effectively begins as early as major film festivals (Cannes, Sundance, Telluride, Venice, TIFF) and becomes full-on by mid‑November.
  • The primary campaign goal is simple: get Academy members to see your film—ideally in theaters rather than just on the Academy portal.
  • The Academy is composed of 17 branches; campaigns target different constituencies (actors, directors, writers, etc.), similar to political campaigning.
  • Early frontrunners exist in multiple categories, but nominations (especially best director, with only five slots) remain competitive and fluid.
  • Awards and industry events (Governor’s Awards, guild awards, curated screenings) serve both as honors and as campaigning vehicles.

How Oscar campaigning works

  • Festival momentum: Critical acclaim and awards at Cannes, Sundance, Telluride, Venice and Toronto create early frontrunners and press narratives.
  • “Phase one”: Mid‑season is focused on securing nominations. The Academy’s voting season is staggered; guild awards and branch voting are influential predictors.
  • Voter access: About 10,000 Academy members receive screeners via a portal, but in‑person screenings, Q&As, dinners and curated events are deployed to boost exposure.
  • Targeted outreach: Individual branches nominate in their field (actors nominate actors, directors nominate directors). Outside guild awards (SAG, WGA, DGA, etc.) often overlap with and predict Oscar outcomes.

Early frontrunners (as discussed)

Note: these are early impressions from industry conversations in mid‑season—subject to change as campaigns escalate.

Best Director

  • Paul Thomas Anderson (seen as a strong, widely viewed contender—Franchise/Star vehicle noted)
  • Chloé Zhao (previous winner; strong awards track record)
  • Ryan Coogler (bringing a commercially successful, awards‑adjacent title)
  • Joachim Trier (art-house/family‑saga, critics’ favorite)
  • Jafar Panahi (Cannes winner; benefits from growing international Academy membership)

Best Picture

  • A mix of prestige films and some bigger commercial titles are likely to appear. Studios are pushing both blockbusters (e.g., franchise/mega‑hits) and art‑house films that played festivals.
  • Academy increasingly mixes international/arthouse tastes with a desire to include mainstream hits.

Best Actor (early names)

  • Leonardo DiCaprio (prominent awards push)
  • Timothée Chalamet (high expectations for a lead role)
  • Michael B. Jordan (major commercial + awards appeal)
  • George Clooney (veteran presence)
  • Wildcards discussed: Joel Edgerton, Ethan Hawke, Jeremy Allen White, and others depending on campaign traction

Best Actress (early names)

  • Jesse Buckley (highlighted as a potential frontrunner/discovery)
  • Emma Stone (high‑profile, transformative role noted)
  • Cynthia Erivo (large musical/genre role could translate to a nomination)
  • Other names floated: Sidney Sweeney, Jennifer Lawrence, and smaller breakout performances depending on visibility

Events and awards that matter

  • Governor’s Awards: honorary Oscars and humanitarian prizes—ostensibly lifetime honors but also networking/campaigning opportunities for contenders.
  • Guild awards (SAG, WGA, DGA, PGA): often shape momentum and indicate likely Oscar nominees/winners.
  • Curated events (press Q&As, dinners, “Stories of the Season” panels): help films reach specific voting blocs.

Wildcards and campaign dynamics to watch

  • International membership growth in the Academy may boost foreign and festival winners.
  • Streaming/rights deals and how widely a film is screened in‑theater can shift voter exposure.
  • Studios’ decisions on positioning (lead vs. supporting categories, heavy screening schedules, star-driven push) will move the needle.
  • Unexpected strong campaigns from smaller films (if executed well) can displace established names.

Timeline / What’s next

  • Nominations for major awards are typically announced in January—this remains the immediate milestone.
  • Between now and then, expect intensified screenings, targeted events for branch voters and the first major guild award ceremonies, which will further shape the race.
  • Watch box office/popular releases that the Academy may want to include for Best Picture (big tentpoles can still make a difference).

Notable quote

  • “The goal is just to get the voters to see the movie.” — Matt Bellany, summing up the practical aim of early awards campaigning.

Quick recommendations for readers who want to follow the season

  • Follow festival coverage (Telluride, Venice, TIFF) to spot early critical favorites.
  • Track guild awards and their nominees—SAG, DGA and PGA are especially predictive.
  • Note which films are being screened widely in LA/New York and which are getting curated Q&As and events for Academy branches.
  • Keep an eye on both prestige festival winners and any major commercial releases (studios often push both lanes).

This episode is an early-state snapshot: names and momentum will evolve rapidly as campaigns intensify toward the January nominations.