Overview of The Great Washington Retreat
This episode of The Powers That Be explores a striking shift in transatlantic diplomacy: European leaders are increasingly avoiding high-profile visits to Washington, D.C., because meeting with Donald Trump now feels more politically risky than beneficial. Peter Hamby and Julia Ioffe discuss how Trump’s openly hostile posture toward Europe, combined with a series of humiliating on-camera encounters, has made the traditional “show up, flatter him, and win him over” strategy feel ineffective — and even damaging back home.
Why European Leaders Are Backing Away
Trump’s posture toward Europe
- Trump and key allies like J.D. Vance and Elbridge Colby are described as dismissive of Europe, viewing it as weak, woke, and overly dependent on the U.S.
- Trump continues to prefer strongman and autocratic leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and is more comfortable with royals and Gulf monarchies than with Europe’s democratic leaders.
The humiliation factor
- Several European leaders who came to Washington hoping to manage Trump ended up looking weak or subordinate on the world stage.
- The episode highlights how damaging these optics can be domestically:
- European leaders were seen “begging” for Trump’s favor.
- The White House’s public staging of meetings made them look like schoolchildren being lectured.
- Trump’s unpredictable behavior makes every visit a potential trap.
The Zelensky effect
- The Oval Office meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky in February 2025 is presented as a major turning point.
- The message many Europeans took from that episode: even friendly outreach can turn into public humiliation.
Key Examples Discussed
Leaders who have visited Trump’s White House in the second term
- Volodymyr Zelensky
- Friedrich Merz
- Alexander Stubb
- Keir Starmer
- Emmanuel Macron
- Giorgia Meloni
Signs of the retreat
- Alexander Stubb’s planned Washington visit was reportedly quietly canceled.
- European leaders increasingly prefer:
- phone diplomacy,
- meetings with lower-level U.S. officials,
- sideline encounters at events like the UN General Assembly,
- and future meetings at less performative venues like the G20 in Miami.
World Cup diplomacy without D.C.
- Multiple European leaders and royals came to the U.S. for World Cup matches but deliberately avoided Washington afterward.
- This included leaders from Norway, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
- The implication: they’ll appear in public with Trump only when necessary, not for a dedicated bilateral spectacle in D.C.
Main Takeaways
The old playbook no longer works
- The conventional wisdom used to be that face time with Trump could win him over through flattery and personal charm.
- That assumption has weakened because:
- Trump may reverse himself immediately after a meeting.
- He may publicly berate guests.
- The political cost of being seen with him is now too high in many European capitals.
Diplomacy hasn’t stopped — it’s just gone quieter
- European governments are not cutting off contact with the U.S.
- Instead, they are shifting away from symbolic, camera-heavy White House visits and toward behind-the-scenes channels.
Trust is eroding
- A senior European diplomat suggests that even if a Democrat wins in 2028, rebuilding trust with European allies will take time.
- The broader lesson: once repeated humiliation becomes the norm, even allied leaders stop believing that personal diplomacy with Trump is worth the risk.
Notable Insight
- Julia Ioffe’s central argument is that Trump has effectively turned White House diplomacy into a lose-lose proposition for European leaders:
- No meeting looks bad.
- A meeting often looks worse.
Bottom Line
The episode argues that Europe’s retreat from Washington is not a total rupture, but a deliberate downgrade in visibility and symbolism. European leaders still want U.S. support, especially on Ukraine and NATO, but they increasingly believe that being seen in Trump’s orbit hurts them politically more than it helps diplomatically.