Overview of The G.O.P.’s Midterm NFL Blitz
This episode of The Powers That Be focuses on how the 2026 midterm campaign is colliding with the NFL and college football season, turning live sports into one of the most expensive and effective ad vehicles in American media. Peter Hamby and John Ourand discuss the flood of political advertising in battleground states, the NFL’s push for international growth and youth touch football, and what the newly approved Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger could mean for sports rights and streaming strategy.
Political Ads Are Swamping Football Broadcasts
Why campaigns are spending big on sports
- Political campaigns value live sports because they still deliver large, engaged, hard-to-miss audiences.
- Football is especially attractive because it reaches both broad national audiences and key demographic targets in battleground states.
- Republicans, in particular, are leaning heavily into football advertising this cycle, though Democrats are also spending aggressively.
What viewers are seeing
- Ads are showing up not just on broadcast TV, but also through YouTube TV and other streaming-based live TV bundles.
- The effect is especially pronounced in battleground states such as:
- North Carolina
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Ohio
- Maine
- Texas
Eye-popping ad costs
- Some examples cited in the episode:
- A spot during Commanders–Cowboys in Dallas-Fort Worth: about $400,000
- A Sunday Night Football buy in Detroit by the Democratic Governors Association: about $405,000
- A Republican Governors Association spot in Cincinnati: about $375,000
- In tiny media markets like Presque Isle, Maine, campaigns are spending extraordinary amounts per viewer.
- Total midterm political ad spending is estimated to be approaching $12 billion when including future reservations.
Why NFL and College Football Remain the Prime Political Targets
The core media logic
- Live sports remain the last major pillar holding together the cable and broadcast advertising model.
- Football gives campaigns a way to reach voters when they are highly attentive and not skipping commercials.
- College football is seen as especially valuable for its local, regional, and somewhat more conservative audience profile.
Effectiveness vs. inefficiency
- The spending is enormous, and in some markets it may be inefficient.
- But campaigns often buy sports anyway because they can’t afford to let the other side dominate those audiences.
- The result is an arms race: both parties are willing to pay premium prices to stay visible.
The NFL’s Bigger Strategic Moves
International expansion
- The NFL continues pushing aggressively into international markets.
- The season has already included a game in Australia, and the Cowboys are slated to play in Brazil.
- The league appears committed to making a major international breakthrough before Roger Goodell eventually exits in the 2030s.
Growing youth touch football
- The NFL is also investing in touch football as a pipeline for future fans.
- The league is pushing touch football in schools, youth leagues, and even internationally.
- The goal is to reach kids earlier, especially since many now start with soccer or basketball rather than tackle football.
Ratings remain strong, even if slightly soft
- Week 1 NFL ratings were down a bit, but the league still dominates the TV landscape.
- Even with small dips, the NFL remains the most valuable sports/entertainment property in television.
What the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery Merger Means for Sports
Sports leadership and strategy
- If the merger fully closes, CBS Sports chief David Berson is expected to play a major role in overseeing the combined sports portfolio.
- The merged company will need to cut costs and decide which rights to keep, trim, or potentially pursue.
Likely keepers
The episode notes that these are unlikely to be cut:
- NFL
- March Madness
Possible targets for trimming
Properties that could be reviewed more closely include:
- MLB postseason rights
- French Open tennis
- Other smaller rights deals with less strategic value
The broader industry trend
- The sports rights market is increasingly separating into:
- haves: NFL, NBA, major college football, March Madness
- have-nots: properties that may be forced toward streaming-only or lose linear visibility
- The discussion points to examples like MLS moving to Apple TV and the Pac-12 effectively collapsing after failing to secure a viable media deal.
Other Notes
Tom Brady’s broadcasting growth
- The hosts briefly discuss Tom Brady’s early-season broadcasting work.
- Brady’s willingness to sound more natural and show emotion was highlighted as a positive.
Conference plug
- The episode closes with a mention of an upcoming media conference featuring major sports and entertainment figures, including:
- Adam Silver
- Charlie Baker
- Greg Sankey
- Bela Bajaria
Key Takeaways
- Political campaigns are spending unprecedented sums to buy access to football audiences.
- NFL and college football remain the most valuable live-TV inventory for political advertisers.
- The NFL is pursuing long-term growth through international games and youth touch football.
- The Paramount–Warner merger could reshape which sports properties remain on linear TV versus being cut or moved.
- The sports media ecosystem is becoming more concentrated around a few elite rights packages.
