SpaceX’s Moonshot & An Iran War Paradox

Summary of SpaceX’s Moonshot & An Iran War Paradox

by Puck | Audacy

21m•July 23, 2026
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Overview of SpaceX’s Moonshot & An Iran War Paradox

This episode of The Powers That Be with Peter Hamby and Bill Cohan splits between two big market stories: the speculative frenzy around AI and SpaceX-related valuations, and the surprisingly contained-but-still-serious energy shock from the U.S.-Iran conflict. The conversation centers on whether today’s AI infrastructure buildout is a new dot-com-style bubble, and why oil markets haven’t spiraled into a full-blown crisis despite tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

AI, SpaceX, and the “CapEx Arms Race”

Core question: bubble or buildout?

Bill Cohan argues that the current AI investment cycle feels dangerously euphoric, with companies racing to outspend each other on compute, data centers, and infrastructure.

  • George Noble’s view: “All these guys are running toward the cliff.”
  • The problem is not just business fundamentals, but the absurd valuations being placed on these companies by:
    • venture capital firms
    • private equity / LBO firms
    • Wall Street underwriters who are incentivized to hype the story

Why this may be worse than the dot-com era

Cohan says this may be even more extreme than the dot-com bubble, because the scale of capital spending is enormous and the revenue base is still thin, especially for OpenAI.

  • OpenAI: massive spending, unclear path to commensurate revenue
  • Anthropic: better monetization than OpenAI, but still under pressure to justify the spending
  • The broader concern is that investors may be funding infrastructure that will prove useful later, while many of the companies themselves—or the lenders backing them—may not survive intact

Historical analogy

The discussion compares AI infrastructure spending to the buildout of the early internet:

  • like Cisco-era infrastructure
  • many telecom companies failed
  • but the underlying “pipes” remained valuable

That analogy works to a point, but Cohan emphasizes that AI capex is already larger than the old broadband buildout and may be far more speculative.

Government Stakes and the Trump Factor

Could the government take stakes in AI companies?

The conversation turns to whether the government might eventually take an equity position in companies like OpenAI or Anthropic.

  • Cohan suggests Trump sees no contradiction in the government taking stakes in companies he supports or talks up.
  • He frames it as “Trump capitalism” rather than socialism.
  • The logic is self-reinforcing: if these companies are going to be public-market bonanzas, the government may want in early.

Big-picture takeaway

There’s a growing sense that market valuations are ahead of reality. The businesses may not be bad, but the pricing and expectations attached to them look unstable.

Iran, Oil Markets, and the Strait of Hormuz

The energy shock that hasn’t fully become a crisis

The second half of the episode focuses on the war with Iran and its impact on global oil prices. The obvious concern is that fighting near the Strait of Hormuz could choke off a huge share of global oil shipments.

Dan Yergin’s view

Cohan summarizes his conversation with energy historian and market expert Dan Yergin, who explains that the situation is more complicated than a simple supply shock.

Key points:

  • The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint.
  • Shipping through the strait has become more difficult, but not completely shut down.
  • Oil prices have risen, but not to the catastrophic levels many feared.

Why prices haven’t exploded

Several global factors have softened the blow:

  • Saudi Arabia already has pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait
  • The UAE can move part of its production through an alternate pipeline
  • Iraq is developing a pipeline through Syria
  • China, the world’s largest oil importer, reportedly cut imports sharply, easing demand pressure
  • The U.S. now produces more oil than ever and is less dependent on imports than in the 1970s

Market result

  • Oil had been feared to spike toward $150–$200 per barrel
  • Instead, it’s been closer to $80
  • Gas prices are still up, especially in places like New York and California, but there are no gas lines or full supply shortages

Economic and Political Implications

Inflation risk

Cohan and Hamby note that even without an immediate supply collapse, higher oil prices can still ripple through the economy:

  • transportation
  • food
  • fertilizer
  • airline travel
  • broader inflation

Political consequences

The price of gasoline could become a major issue heading into the election cycle:

  • voters dislike paying more at the pump
  • the war is described as a voluntary conflict
  • rising fuel costs could hurt Republicans politically in Congress

Key Takeaways

  • The AI boom looks increasingly like a capital-spending bubble driven by hype and competitive overinvestment.
  • The real issue is less whether AI is valuable and more whether today’s valuations are wildly disconnected from revenue.
  • The Iran war has stressed oil markets, but global supply chains and alternative pipelines have kept it from becoming a 1970s-style crisis.
  • The U.S. is more energy-independent than it used to be, which helps blunt the shock.
  • Even so, higher gasoline prices are still a political and economic threat.

Notable Insight

“It really comes down to the absurd valuations that are being placed on these companies... and the Wall Street underwriters who are paid to hype this stuff out of the stratosphere.”

This line captures the episode’s central skepticism: the danger is not just technological ambition, but the financial machinery inflating it.

Closing Note

The episode ends on the idea that both stories—AI exuberance and the Iran oil shock—are examples of markets absorbing big geopolitical and technological shifts without fully pricing their risks yet. The hosts’ tone is skeptical, watchful, and very aware that the current calm may not last.