Overview of Media Monday: CNN Successionology & The G.O.P. Midterm Blitz
This Powers That Be “Media Monday” episode blends election-eve political analysis with a deep dive into the economics and leadership shakeups shaping legacy media. Peter Hamby and John Kelly handicap the midterms, arguing that Democrats are in strong position for the House and have an unexpectedly real path to the Senate, while also examining how record political ad spending is reshaping TV and digital media. In the back half, they focus on CNN’s future under Skydance-era cost cutting, Mark Thompson’s contract status, and what media consolidation means for the future of broadcast news.
Midterm Outlook: House Looks Blue, Senate Is More Competitive Than Expected
Core election takeaways
- House: Both hosts see Democrats as highly likely to win back the House.
- Senate: John Kelly says Nate Silver’s model has Democrats with roughly a 75% chance of retaking the Senate, a sharp improvement from earlier in the cycle.
- Toss-up states discussed: Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Maine.
- Caution on polling: They repeatedly stress that Trump-era polling is still volatile because a meaningful share of voters do not respond to surveys.
What could swing the results
- Texas is treated as the biggest wildcard:
- Democrats are hoping for strong Latino and suburban turnout.
- Republicans may still hold up if rural white turnout comes in stronger than expected.
- Maine is framed as a harder lift for Democrats, with Susan Collins still seen as a survivor.
- Local races matter: Virginia and Arkansas are cited as examples of down-ballot races that could surprise.
Broader political context
- The election is framed as a choice between Trump and the alternative, with voters appearing more motivated by prices, war, and tariffs than by enthusiasm for Democrats.
- Democrats remain unpopular overall, even if they benefit from anti-Trump sentiment.
The $12 Billion Political Ad Machine Is Reshaping TV
Why media companies are benefiting
- Political spending in this cycle is estimated at around $12 billion.
- Networks and local broadcasters are seeing major windfalls, with one executive saying October political ad revenue is roughly double what it was four years ago.
- Spending ramped up especially after Labor Day and is heavily concentrated around:
- NFL games
- College football
- Other high-reach live sports events
How campaigns are buying media
- Republicans: More heavily favor broadcast TV and super PAC spending.
- Democrats: Have been more aggressive earlier and are spending more on digital/streaming.
- The hosts note that campaigns are increasingly splitting their budgets between:
- YouTube / fast channels / streaming
- Linear sports and live TV
- Cable’s role continues to shrink, while sports remain one of the last reliable “monoculture” ad environments.
Key industry insight
- The cycle illustrates a broader barbell effect in media:
- Money is flowing to digital targeting on one end.
- And to big live sports audiences on the other.
- Traditional cable is increasingly being squeezed out of the middle.
CNN, Skydance, and the Future of Legacy News
What’s happening at CNN
- The discussion centers on Mark Thompson’s future at CNN under new ownership pressure and a cost-cutting mindset from Skydance leadership.
- His contract talks are reportedly being pushed until after the election, which the hosts read as a sign that:
- leadership decisions are still unsettled,
- and a longer-term restructuring is likely.
Why the delay matters
- In major media deals, leadership changes usually happen either:
- immediately on Day 1, or
- after a short period of operational observation.
- The fact that Skydance has not yet fully settled CNN’s leadership suggests:
- uncertainty about the network’s long-term direction,
- and possibly a search for a different kind of executive profile.
Likely strategic priorities
- The hosts expect major synergies across:
- real estate,
- personnel,
- technology,
- and back-office operations.
- The bigger question is what broadcast news should look like in 2027.
Bari Weiss / CBS context
- The conversation suggests that Bari Weiss is not expected to take over CNN, which is portrayed as a relief inside the newsroom.
- More broadly, the hosts see newsroom consolidation and leadership churn as part of the same industrywide reset.
New Media Is Pulling in Old Media Veterans
Notable signposts
- Bill Owens (formerly of 60 Minutes) joining a creator-oriented platform is treated as a symbol of where the market is headed.
- Andrew Morse launching a new company in the creator/quality-video space reinforces the trend.
Main takeaway
- Veteran media leaders are increasingly moving toward:
- mobile-first video
- creator-led storytelling
- connected TV
- The hosts see this as evidence that the old broadcast model is no longer enough on its own.
Notable Lines and Ideas
- “National polling and picking quarterbacks in the NFL draft” are both described as expensive, attention-heavy markets with very fickle outcomes.
- The episode repeatedly returns to the idea that Trump-era politics has made polling harder and media buying more fragmented.
- The hosts also emphasize that legacy TV still matters, but mostly where it still captures mass audiences: live sports and major news moments.
What to Watch Next
- Final midterm results, especially in Texas, Ohio, and Maine
- Whether Democrats actually deliver on the expected House win and possible Senate upset
- How much political ad spending continues to reshape broadcast, cable, and streaming
- The next move in CNN leadership and Skydance cost cutting
- Whether more legacy TV figures continue migrating into creator-first media startups