Summary of Is Cuba the Next Venezuela?

Overview of Is Cuba the Next Venezuela?

This episode of The Powers That Be Daily focuses on the Trump administration’s growing pressure campaign against Cuba and whether the island could become the next Venezuela-style regime-change target. Peter Hamby and Julia Ioffe discuss Cuba’s deepening humanitarian crisis, the role of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Justice Department’s indictment of Raúl Castro, and the possibility that U.S. policy is being shaped as much by Florida politics and Trump’s real-estate instincts as by any coherent strategy for Cuba’s future.

Main Topics Discussed

Cuba’s worsening humanitarian crisis

• Cuba is facing severe shortages of:
  • fuel and diesel
  • food
  • basic healthcare supplies
• Rolling blackouts and economic collapse have made daily life dramatically worse.
• Julia Ioffe emphasizes that conditions are now worse than the already dire post-Soviet-era hardship Cuba experienced in the 1990s.

The Raúl Castro indictment

• The Justice Department indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over a 1996 incident involving the shooting down of a humanitarian aircraft.
• The indictment was described as part of a broader pressure campaign, not necessarily a realistic step toward extradition or prosecution.
• The timing and location of the announcement — in Miami’s Freedom Tower on Cuban Independence Day — were framed as highly symbolic and politically targeted.

Marco Rubio’s influence

• Rubio is portrayed as the key driver behind the Cuba policy push.
• The hosts argue Rubio has:
  • long-standing ideological hostility to the Castro regime
  • strong ties to the Cuban-American community in Florida
  • personal political incentives tied to a hardline Cuba stance
• He is also seen as increasingly powerful within Trump’s orbit and as a possible 2028 presidential contender.

Gaisa: Cuba’s hidden power structure

• The episode spends significant time on Gaisa (more commonly known as GAESA), the military-linked conglomerate that dominates large parts of Cuba’s economy.
• GAESA is described as a state-within-a-state that controls:
  • tourism
  • gas stations
  • supermarkets
  • money transfers
  • internet access
• The hosts argue that the Cuban leadership’s real economic power flows through this opaque military-financial network.

Regime change and U.S. motives

• The discussion compares Cuba policy to Venezuela policy and suggests the U.S. may be applying a similar playbook:
  • sanctions and indictments
  • rhetoric about liberation
  • possible covert or military pressure
• Hamby and Ioffe argue that Trump’s interest may be less about democracy and more about:
  • Florida politics
  • personal legacy
  • beachfront property and hotel-building opportunities

Key Takeaways

Cuba is being treated as a Florida political issue

• The episode makes clear that Cuba policy is deeply tied to South Florida electoral dynamics.
• Cuban-American voters remain a powerful Republican constituency.
• The indictment and Rubio’s messaging appear tailored to that audience as much as to policymakers.

The Cuban people are likely to suffer most

• Both hosts stress that the Cuban population is already living through severe deprivation.
• Any escalation, whether sanctions, covert action, or military intervention, would likely worsen the humanitarian crisis.

Regime change could create new inequalities

• Julia Ioffe warns that if the regime fell, wealthy Cuban exiles could return and reclaim property and power.
• There is concern that a post-Castro Cuba could deepen class and racial divides rather than resolve them.
• Many of the poorer, darker-skinned Cubans who remained on the island may be left behind again.

Cuba’s political future is unclear

• Even if the current leadership collapses, the episode questions who would govern next.
• The Cuban leadership appears brittle and unpopular, but no clear successor or stable transition plan is visible.

Notable Insights

• The hosts repeatedly compare Cuba’s current system to the late Soviet Union: exhausted, corrupt, and sustained by inertia.
• Ioffe notes that many Cubans no longer believe in the revolution, including people inside the system.
• The conversation suggests U.S. policy is driven by symbolism, domestic politics, and personal ambition more than by a realistic reconstruction plan.

Bottom Line

The episode frames Cuba as a fragile, impoverished, and politically trapped country caught between a decaying authoritarian regime and an aggressive U.S. pressure campaign. While the Trump administration and Marco Rubio are positioning themselves as opponents of communism and defenders of Cuban freedom, the hosts argue the underlying motives may be far more political and opportunistic — and that ordinary Cubans are likely to pay the price.